Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Weathizard]

120hr comparisons:

 

ECM 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2015122812/ECM1-120.GIF?28-0

 

GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2015122812/gfs-0-120.png?12

 

 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by Weathizard

[Lakigigar]

please let the low drop in north france, not in benelux

[That ECM]

Makes you wonder if the high pressure is going to put up a bigger fight than first modelled. T120 ecm and a to the west movement of the Pv interesting. Much to be resolved and it will take a couple more days.

Edited December 28, 2015 by That ECM

[SMU]

144 in

shes going to slide - look at the heights increasing across to iceland

deep cold getting closer...

snowline mainline east of the UK at this point although some for scotland....

Edited December 28, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[tight isobar]

Looking good... the cold should awaits on this run @ecm

[Mucka]

Importantly very good agreement between ECM and UKMO out to 144h, UKMO marginally better perhaps. 

 

When the Euros have such good agreement we have to think GFS is the least likely solution. If JMA is similar again we can await tomorrow's output with some expectancy that GFS will move toward this solution..

Edited December 28, 2015 by Mucka

[Ice Day]

OK, the UKMO 144hrs vs ECM's.  Very very similar.

  

Right, here goes.  Be good 168.....please!

[tight isobar]

The lp blows up @144....this is the "crucial evolution point! 

[Lakigigar]

jma is very good

 

[Daniel*]

Severe cold crawling closer T+144

 

 

[SMU]

Nice 168 cold coming into the North sea

low pressure getting sheared left right & centre

pressure building over Iceland...

HUUUUGEEE COLD POOL IN 

CENTRAL EUROPE

 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[Eskimo]

Surely there must be some sort of twitching going on over the MetOffice now? To be honest, it was a few years ago, but I do remember it all imploding at 24 hours which was incredibly strange. 

Marginal snow from Midlands north and probably above 100m from the ECM.

[Ice Day]

5 minutes ago, THE CHOSEN ONE said:

HUUUUGEEE COLD POOL IN 

CENTRAL EUROPE

You're not kidding are you!!!

It's so close, can it get here that's the million dollar question?

Edited December 28, 2015 by Ice Day

[phil nw.]

Yes at T144hrs ECM/UKMO keen on driving low pressure se into the Med.

This along with those Siberian heights extending west shows modeling is now re-aligning the pattern which should improve transport west of the cold later on.

We can see att168 those rising heights towards Iceland,indications of the Greenland trough on the retreat.

[SMU]

Snow over a swathe of the uk ( NE main )

at 192 drifting south ...

needs a smidge more correction though

[Lakigigar]

Come on... I live in Belgium  hopefully, it will shift a little bit to the south.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Lakigigar

[gottolovethisweather]

All I can say about tonight's ECM besides worrying over the surface specifics is HAPPY NEW YEAR!  

Do wrap up warmly and consider getting a new coat, hat and gloves out of the closet as proper Winter might finally be on its way. 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[cold snap]

widespread heavy snow IF the low sinks south ,It's stalling so it a bit hit and miss  not interacting with the Scandinavian high 

[SMU]

I will let someone else post the 240

feb 1996 redux at 216

snow pushing east for the core central belt of the UK

wales & the NE inc Ireland

Edited December 28, 2015 by THE CHOSEN ONE

[booferking]

OMG 216 IS BRING A MONSTER OF A SNOWSTORM.

[Carlrg]

God knows what will happen if that pv crossing the Atlantic goes under the block.

There she blows.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Carlrg

[cold snap]

At 216 we see another go a undercut if she goes under and south ,could be best chart in 5 years for snow 

[fergieweather]

8 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Surely there must be some sort of twitching going on over the MetOffice now? To be honest, it was a few years ago, but I do remember it all imploding at 24 hours which was incredibly strange. 

Marginal snow from Midlands north and probably above 100m from the ECM.

Refer to my post earlier today in moans/ramps thread re UKMO views as were valid at 00z output analysis. In short: forecast emphasis will of course run in line with ENS majority as this becomes more coherently supported across ECMWF, MOGREPS-15 and further ahead, GloSea5 and tonight's EC Monthly (ie beyond T+360). Critically, distinction between 'cold' (ie something closer to avg or just below) versus 'pronounced cold' is important re how UKMO communicate this. The latter outcome rated 20% for NE/E as of the 00z suites. Complete assessment of 12z output and EC Monthly won't be completed until later tonight. 

[Eskimo]

1 minute ago, fergieweather said:

Refer to my post earlier today in moans/ramps thread re UKMO views as were valid at 00z output analysis. In short: forecast emphasis will of course run in line with ENS majority as this becomes more coherently supported across ECMWF, MOGREPS-15 and further ahead, GloSea5 and tonight's EC Monthly (ie beyond T+360). Critically, distinction between 'cold' (ie something closer to avg or just below) versus 'pronounced cold' is important re how UKMO communicate this. The latter outcome rated 20% for NE/E as of the 00z suites. Complete assessment of 12z output and EC Monthly won't be completed until later tonight. 

Okay Ian thanks 

[cold snap]

At 240 It didn't go under the block ,no interaction with the Scandinavia High ,

Anybody expecting a snowfest will be disappointed however wouldn't take much for a change