Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[seabreeze86]

Plenty of blocking around thats for sure, 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, cold snap said:

At 240 It didn't go under the block ,no interaction with the Scandinavia High ,

Anybody expecting a snowfest will be disappointed however wouldn't take much for a change 

We've been warned about taking each new model run literally, though, especially in Fi.  To my inexperienced eyes, this appears to be the best chance for something really wintry in my area since 2013.

[booferking]

The PV is sitting over the British Isles @240

[tight isobar]

This will need a good referee, 

We're 1-0 up.....but there's extra time heeded! 

But an overall pattern change to seasonal is 99:9 assured. .

Some alignment and deviation needed! !!!

[Carlrg]

3 minutes ago, cold snap said:

At 240 It didn't go under the block ,no interaction with the Scandinavia High ,

Anybody expecting a snowfest will be disappointed however wouldn't take much for a change 

No interaction. Isn't It being forced South South East?

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

The PV is sitting over the British Isles @240

At circa 528 dam, not really boofer

[gottolovethisweather]

On 14/12/2015 at 8:25 AM, gottolovethisweather said:

I know I'm a bit premature with twelve days of Christmas business but the pipers might be piping before we know it, things can switch around very quickly indeed when it comes to our changing climate.

Granted, the above quote is from two weeks prior, when there were absolutely no signs of a change for the UK, yet alone for Europe across any of the model suites (besides Stratosphere charts which are out of my league). I can't help but highlight just how quickly the broader picture can change. Even, just 24 to 36 hours ago, it wouldn't be in your wildest of dreams that lowland UK wintriness would show up in any of the outputs yet alone within the confines of the reliable, i.e. D5 to D7. Anyhow, a cracking ECM once more, hopefully the cool to cold trend is firmly set. We've hit the bullseye with our mid-term forecast hopes so now its time for a darting consolation as well. 

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[tight isobar]

^^^the kara high seems to be somewhat unprecedented. ...

Which is no surprise in a season of unprecedented! !

Ala El-nino..etc etc...

Model concise bound to be yo-yo ing!

[snowice]

12 minutes ago, cold snap said:

At 240 It didn't go under the block ,no interaction with the Scandinavia High ,

Anybody expecting a snowfest will be disappointed however wouldn't take much for a change 

I wouldn't worry this far out the ingredients are there for cold let's hope Gfs 12z  jumps aboard anything is better than this mild mush and the poor people in Yorkshire and  theMidlands in Ireland need help and relief from the floods let's hope it arrives 

[shaky]

Looks like if any model is gona backtrack its gfs!!ecm is not far from marvellous!!

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Looks like if any model is gona backtrack its gfs!!ecm is not far from marvellous!!

Or halfway between both, which is often the case. Won't be popular as it would be a close miss.

[blizzard81]

I don't know about anyone else but the ECM 12z was tantamount to having your teeth pulled without anaesthetic but the dentist breaks your tooth and then just gives it up as a bad job. Yes, that's how bad I feel about that run. The high to the north east is incredible but there is one big problem with it - it is a limpet and therefore will not retrogress. It throws a ridge west but this is just not good enough to make those atlantic lows slip into southern europe. This is what I was trying to explain last night with Chio. I feared the depressions from the atlantic would not go under the block. Instead they just fill over the UK. This is enough to stop the frigid air moving across the north sea to our shores. For this to change and for us to see those lows to slide, we need that mega block to move further west.

[Frosty.]

It's so pleasing to see increasing potential for a wintry shock to the system next week, the Ecm 12z keeps uk coldies very interested indeed!!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Would be interesting to see the ECM snow depth chart...if someone could post it.

[Chris K]

11 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I don't know about anyone else but the ECM 12z was tantamount to having your teeth pulled without anaesthetic but the dentist breaks your tooth and then just gives it up as a bad job. Yes, that's how bad I feel about that run. The high to the north east is incredible but there is one big problem with it - it is a limpet and therefore will not retrogress. It throws a ridge west but this is just not good enough to make those atlantic lows slip into southern europe. This is what I was trying to explain last night with Chio. I feared the depressions from the atlantic would not go under the block. Instead they just fill over the UK. This is enough to stop the frigid air moving across the north sea to our shores. For this to change and for us to see those lows to slide, we need that mega block to move further west.

As much as the overall N hemispheric pattern looks to be undergoing change, I agree with you regarding the ECM run. Yes, cold starts getting pulled westward, but all I see is most of the UK stuck under a cool LP system time and time again instead of a milder one.

It's not until FI again where it finally gets so tantalisingly close.

Compared to where we were a few days ago though, a marked difference and at least some interest for coldies. Just a shame a dry spell doesn't look to be there for our friends who have been suffering from the floods.

 

Just seen the above snow depth chart. I'm surprised that it's so far South, but I guess in marginal setups it's possible with so many factors coming into play.

Edited December 28, 2015 by Chris K

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Would be interesting to see the ECM snow depth chart...if someone could post it.

I am more interested in getting the cold air first

[tinybill]

11 hours ago, nick sussex said:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

could  there  be a battle ground over  the east coast deep in fantasy world appearing   if  the gfs is right!!!

 

Edited December 28, 2015 by tinybill

[Swave Snow]

On 25/12/2015 at 8:53 PM, Paul_1978 said:

2 hours ago, Polar Maritime said:

Just look at that warmth getting pumped up into the Arctic by storm Fred.

 

And it brought such a quick temperature change yesterday in the Highland Aviemore went from 0c to 11c in under 1 and half hours in the evening yesterday.  Incredible it happened so quick that the snow and ice didn't even respond for a while the ground temp obviously even though it had been mild most of the winter so far even the speed of this incoming warmth didn't respond. Very strange to see 7c or 9c on the car thermometer and snow and ice outside looking like it was still 0c.

 

With those conditions steaming so quickly up into the Artic it would be incredible if the PV doesn't take a tanking.

 

Interesting times that is for sure 

[The PIT]

Ah well taking away fantasy island look slike we have to do with normal temps and rain. To be honest that will feel cold.

[chris55]

We are not far off from something rather good. The charts are full of all the ingredients we crave for a good snowy spell in the UK. Both ECM and UkMO at 144 are a hares breath (in terms of the bigger picture) away from delivering a perfect storm, as the trough disrupts coming up against the high to our north and east. All we need is a slight correction south and west with a slightly more elongated trough and we are in business.

I know as they say " a miss is as good as a mile" but considering December this potential hit or miss is certainly worth keeping a close eye on!

ECM 144 trough approaching, a little to round at this point but does disrupt at 168

UKMO 144 better negative tilt at this stage than ECM id hazard to say UKMO 168 would be worth a look lol

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Stunning ecm if your midlands northwards, could do with a correction south with the slider, certainly no further north

[Neiller22]

One post says cold and snow.  Another says cold and rain! How will we ever learn on here with such contrasting views! At least it's all heading in right direction. 

[Cheese Rice]

I think it could be a case of close but no cigar in the south, further north as the colder air digs in we should see some frontal snowfall from a slider low.

[Tim Brawn]

So my 2nd post goes something like , WOW  what a turnaround from a couple of days ago , lets hope the signs are write else this will be a bloodbath not a snowfest

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Neiller22 said:

One post says cold and snow.  Another says cold and rain! How will we ever learn on here with such contrasting views! At least it's all heading in right direction. 

To be honest both could be a true as it may be a bit of a knife edge situation with the slider.