Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[knocker]

30 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It was obvious the NH pattern was changing into the new year well before Christmas (even if it wasn't to impact the uk directly)... I said as much MANY times. Though we had the usual drama queens proclaiming January would be just as mild/+AO as December.

As a matter of interest who actually said January would be just as mild as December or is this just another example of your nonsensical rhetoric? And if you are looking for drama queens well stone me the thread is full of them. Note the recent frenzy.

Edited December 27, 2015 by knocker

[Carlrg]

I wish some people would get a sense of humour, peace and goodwill and all that!

[knocker]

No I'm into pink now with the GEFS setting up the big -AO block during mid-January But you don't want to look at the ext ecm

Edited December 27, 2015 by knocker

[radiohead]

15 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Short ensembles out - not much support for the OP again

At least the OP if part of a cold cluster rather than being a clear outlier. Still looks like a low probability solution overall but not a pipe dream either.

Let's see how things develop in the days ahead.

[Carlrg]

Best crack out the suncream and shorts then! Not to mention my Scuba gear and rubber dingy. 

[Ali1977]

21 minutes ago, SnappyClap said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35186788

Just looked at the end of the bbc forecast , they still want to stick with the mild theme for january but they said it probably could be mild !!!!. however they said 1 or 2 of there models are indicating colder weather !!

I wonder which ones!! Hopefully their most powerful...I still think mid Jan is where the real fun a games start. Big -AO followed by a SSW would be nice for something prolonged!!

[winterof79]

With all due respect Knocker the posters are commenting on the output.Not the anomalies.Frenzy is a little robust to say the least.

 

Best stock up on daffs as we move further in to January.You may need to live on them in your shed.

[Team Jo]

Let's keep it friendly please chaps! 

(and Ideally to Model discussion...)

Thanking you!

[Ali1977]

To be fair to Knocker he posts much of his thoughts using ensembles, and bigger picture stuff, not getting carried away with individual runs. Most of us, including me are coldies...knocker isn't, so when he says things are looking to get colder then it's time to get the gloves out.

[helen47]

7 minutes ago, radiohead said:

At least the OP if part of a cold cluster rather than being a clear outlier. Still looks like a low probability solution overall but not a pipe dream either.

Let's see how things develop in the days ahead.

Im no expert but they are dutch ens i think 

The real cold uppers get into the northern parts of uk so thet wont be showing on the ens for holland???

[knocker]

14 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

That's my kind of post knocker...However as I've said before just keep seeing it as it is...it's reason an you know your stuff....where do you get those charts by the way?

That one was courtesy of Michael Ventrice

[bluearmy]

18 minutes ago, knocker said:

No I'm into pink now with the GEFS setting up the big -AO block during mid-January But you don't want to look at the ext ecm

 

Why knocks?  Granted it isn't as low a -AO as the GEFS but they still have a -AO/NAO combo. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Not a great ECM suite to be honest, a small cluster of runs which get a decent trajectory on the incoming sliding trough but most push this further north keeping a good part of the UK wet with near normal temperatures.

Fine lines though, at this juncture I think Steve's point about getting a wedge of heights further west (For example Iceland) would be a decent area to look at, especially as ensemble suites will struggle to accurately pick features like this. So maybe a switch to cold could happen if we can get this wedge or ridge extension from the Russian high to verify.

So at the moment the ECM suite shows a clear interaction between the Atlantic trough and the cold pool over Eastern Europe, but most members take any sliding low too far north to bring snow to many areas. This can and will change though. No classic easterly is on really to be honest, but a cyclonic and possibly snowy easterly is still a possibility, we do need a lot of luck though. 

 

On a side note, the GEFs tend to favour a much weakened tropospheric vortex with above normal heights (not necessarily high pressure) and low pressure on a more southerly track.

 

This is a story which will carry on well into the New year.

Edited December 27, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[Bristawl Si]

Re Captain Shortwave's post probably shows why the Meto are not joining in the 'cold on the horizon' frenzy.

[knocker]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Why knocks?  Granted it isn't as low a -AO as the GEFS but they still have a -AO/NAO combo. 

Well yes blue although the NAO is more or less neutral. But upstream although we have the ongoing Alaskan WAA the trop vortex is still solid over N. Canada with a trough in the western Atlantic and a weak trough eastern Europe. So we are still looking at a flow from the westerly quadrant that will bring periods of windy and unsettled weather with a wintry content in Pm interludes. There is a strong flow over the UK at 200mb without being exceptional and looking at the 850mb temp field doesn't suggest any significant cold in our vacinity that could be advected in. So I don;t see any indication that any cold regime is imminent but that doesn't rule out little dips but temps generally around average. Just my opinion of course.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Anyone using an ensemble based approach to the upcoming weather...GOOD LUCK! The ensembles will be nigh on useless in this scenario. If the hi res of the op can't fathom the eventual outcome then the ensembles will be hung out to dry with many of them powering the jet through in response to the built in climatology. Ensembles have ALWAYS been pretty useless in E'ly scenarios- In my opinion of course!!

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

Well yes blue although the NAO is more or less neutral. But upstream although we have the ongoing Alaskan WAA the trop vortex is still solid over N. Canada with a trough in the western Atlantic and a weak trough eastern Europe. So we are still looking at a flow from the westerly quadrant that will bring periods of windy and unsettled weather with a wintry content in Pm interludes. There is a strong flow over the UK at 200mb without being exceptional and looking at the 850mb temp field doesn't suggest any significant cold in our vacinity that could be advected in. So I don;t see any indication that any cold regime is imminent but that doesn't rule out little dips but temps generally around average. Just my opinion of course.

At the moment, with the potential for a significantly different evolution to that showed by the ens mean/anomolys over nw Europe, I'd say the ens in general for our part of the NH need to be viewed with that in mind. If the ops are onto something. (With their higher res picking up a different direction of travel) then the ens will flip. Of course, the favourite (and forecasted) option will remain the zonal one for the time being. 

 

[booferking]

More going under in this run hopefully....

[Hotspur62]

Well the trends seem to be gathering momentum for a pattern change as we go into the New Year although we have been down this path quite a few times in the last 3-4 years so I am not getting too carried away atm as have things gone Pete Tong from as little as T96 before( the Beast from the East Dec 2012 springs to mind if my memory is correct). That said, the pressure rise to the NE, the cold pool to the East building over Eastern Europe to name but 2 aspects are encouraging signs for a colder pattern to evolve. Whether we, in the UK get a cold outbreak remains to be seen  but the building blocks are in place and as much I have enjoyed this mild December( I work outdoors for a living so give me a break) I would like to see a proper nationwide cold spell with snow which would allow me to being a big kid again lol!!

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

At the moment, with the potential for a significantly different evolution to that showed by the ens mean/anomolys over nw Europe, I'd say the ens in general for our part of the NH need to be viewed with that in mind. If the ops are onto something. (With their higher res picking up a different direction of travel) then the ens will flip. Of course, the favourite (and forecasted) option will remain the zonal one for the time being. 

 

Oh I agree with that but looking at the recent det. outputs, including this evenings ecm, I for one do not possess the necessary expertise to determine the direction of travel with any degree of confidence. But one thing does confuse me. The ens mean are continually rubbished, fine people are entitled to their opinion, and yet there is a veritable feeding frenzy as the various outputs are being produced and charts are literally posted day by day often accompanied by some very spurious meteorology. It's beyond me how a serious appraisal of the output can be made in these circumstances. It's a bit like a game of finding the option that may lead to a white out and if that doesn't works let's try the next option.

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh I agree with that but looking at the recent det. outputs, including this evenings ecm, I for one do not possess the necessary expertise to determine the direction of travel with any degree of confidence. But one thing does confuse me. The ens mean are continually rubbished, fine people are entitled to their opinion, and yet there is a veritable feeding frenzy as the various outputs are being produced and charts are literally posted day by day often accompanied by some very spurious meteorology. It's beyond me how a serious appraisal of the output can be made in these circumstances. It's a bit like a game of finding the option that may lead to a white out and if that doesn't works let's try the next option.

Seriously knocks, how long you have been 'frequenting this establishment'!

 

 

 

[knocker]

29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Anyone using an ensemble based approach to the upcoming weather...GOOD LUCK! The ensembles will be nigh on useless in this scenario. If the hi res of the op can't fathom the eventual outcome then the ensembles will be hung out to dry with many of them powering the jet through in response to the built in climatology. Ensembles have ALWAYS been pretty useless in E'ly scenarios- In my opinion of course!!

That may well be true, although we aren't in an easterly scenario apart from the one that has been invented, which is why I always keep an eye on the professional output who have access to far more detailed information and the expertise to evaluate it correctly. Of course they too get it wrong for the right reasons and not right for the wrong ones.

[knocker]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Seriously knocks, how long you have been 'frequenting this establishment'!

 

 

 

Okay point taken blue.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Oh I agree with that but looking at the recent det. outputs, including this evenings ecm, I for one do not possess the necessary expertise to determine the direction of travel with any degree of confidence. But one thing does confuse me. The ens mean are continually rubbished, fine people are entitled to their opinion, and yet there is a veritable feeding frenzy as the various outputs are being produced and charts are literally posted day by day often accompanied by some very spurious meteorology. It's beyond me how a serious appraisal of the output can be made in these circumstances. It's a bit like a game of finding the option that may lead to a white out and if that doesn't works let's try the next option.

From my point of view, a mean is of most use when the spread of data is somewhere nearly evenly-distributed.  If the data is clustered with none of those being close to the mean, it's apt to be misleading, as it suggests a middle-of-the-road result is favoured when the data actually supports one or more clusters of data towards the fringes of the spread.  I'm speaking generally here, as I don't have much experience with ensemble means, but what I'm saying is that I'd imagine that, in unstable setups, the mean by itself may be misleading.

[on the coast]

Wow some serious cold building from 168 onwards. Fascinating to see what direction it will take in the next few days.