Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Ali1977]

If and probably when the GFS is proved wrong it doesn't say a lot for its big upgrade it had....

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

If and probably when the GFS is proved wrong it doesn't say a lot for its big upgrade it had....

I think the upgrade was for the ensembles only, not the op.

[joggs]

Cmon fergieweather,put a little meat on the bones as to what the latest soundings are,re the glosea please lol.

[nick sussex]

A rather sobering ECM run and a complete horror show for the European ski resorts. That's the bad news out of the way!

The issue is back to the will it won't phasing drama that we had for a few days, the weak low near the UK is now the subject of a further complication because you'll see the ECM phases this with the upstream troughing. This make a huge difference to energy displacement thereafter.

You'll see that pressure rises to the north with the ECM but the tug motion of two lots of phasing spills energy over the top. Will this verify? I wouldn't assume that after days of the ECM changing between each output that its finally got the pattern correct.

Once theres agreement over Europe and upstream in the eastern USA then we can see whats on offer, it might be underwhelming or not in terms of colder prospects.

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, joggs said:

Cmon fergieweather,put a little meat on the bones as to what the latest soundings are,re the glosea please lol.

It's not seeing anything cold according to a tweet he sent earlier unfortunately 

[bobbydog]

20 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think the upgrade was for the ensembles only, not the op.

no, the op was first. thats what the 'GFS parallel' was all about

[Paul]

13 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

no, the op was first. thats what the 'GFS parallel' was all about

The GFS was upgraded this time last year, the GEFS (ensembles) had their upgrade last week.

[joggs]

15 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It's not seeing anything cold according to a tweet he sent earlier unfortunately 

Thanks Ali1977......sigh

[Geordiesnow]

I think as per usual, too much attention on the detail side of things so I hear comments of "I hope the ECM is like the GFS" yet even if it did, it would only raise hype and would know many runs would be needed. 

There does look like to be a slight pattern change in respect perhaps some more blocking may come into play but how will that affect the outlook remains uncertain. 

[Gavin Hannah]

Im heartened to see the gfs 12z output was a significant 'upgrade' to the 06z. Despite the ECM going a different route, i'm not surprised. Whe was the last time we say any models agree out at the 240?

Hopefully the GFS is on to something as a I saw mentioned that other models were hinting at something similar. C'mon God of Winter... don't let us down!!

[Rocheydub]

It still beggars belief, the amount of people that get sucked in when GFS/ECM etc throw in one of those runs, and the amount of posts increase in here with the "it's gonna happen" crew. Please take the advice of the sensible in here. By all means have faith, but please stop hanging on every run like it's gospel! If/when we see a few 00z and 12z runs repeating the general long wave patterns of preferably placed HP cells, then, by all means... But it gets very tiresome otherwise!!! Not for me, I find it hilarious, but you will wear yourselves out. Trust me, I've been there. I was that soldier!

[Summer Sun]

The ECM ens shows things slowly but surely turning more settled which will be a welcome boost for the areas hit by the terrible floods its looks fairly mild but I suspect some day time temps could struggle if we get some misty nights

[January Snowstorm]

Even though the ecm is doing better statistically I always find the gfs better for latching on to a new trend.

The ECM would be a big worry for flood prone areas if it were to be right

[winterof79]

Warm outlier somewhat

 

GFS

Polar opposite

Where's the donkey for this tail? 

[ANYWEATHER]

Howdy Folks! From a perspective of  cold winter fans ,the Gfs has made you grin with delight, whilst its arch enemy the Ecm has made you wince!!! Yes the look of the Gfs has we move to Christmas looks very seasonal but caution needed on this one.......

[Liam J]

Although exact details differ the GEFS control run shows reasonable agreement at day 10 when compared to the ECM & GEM for a SW'ly flow.

FWIW the GEFS mean at day 10.

 

[Singularity]

57 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

A rather sobering ECM run and a complete horror show for the European ski resorts. That's the bad news out of the way!

The issue is back to the will it won't phasing drama that we had for a few days, the weak low near the UK is now the subject of a further complication because you'll see the ECM phases this with the upstream troughing. This make a huge difference to energy displacement thereafter.

You'll see that pressure rises to the north with the ECM but the tug motion of two lots of phasing spills energy over the top. Will this verify? I wouldn't assume that after days of the ECM changing between each output that its finally got the pattern correct.

Once theres agreement over Europe and upstream in the eastern USA then we can see whats on offer, it might be underwhelming or not in terms of colder prospects.

Amazing how much more quickly GFS has that low advancing NE - there's a 24 hour difference in timing, at just a few day's range!

As you imply, the run only gets worse after that, as that U.S. trough slips into the Atlantic rather than maturing and amplifying the pattern upstream. Given that some seriously cold air is heading toward Turkey/Greece by the end of the run, it's surely going to be the one that's nearest to the mark...  

[Ali1977]

49 minutes ago, joggs said:

Cmon fergieweather,put a little meat on the bones as to what the latest soundings are,re the glosea please lol.

It's not seeing anything cold according to a tweet he sent earlier unfortunately 

 

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Although exact details differ the GEFS control run shows reasonable agreement at day 10 when compared to the ECM & GEM for a SW'ly flow.

FWIW the GEFS mean at day 10.

 

This agrees with the latest bbc 6-10 day, high pressure to come in from the South as the Jet weakens, however the then jet forecast to strengthen again and back to mild wet mush....good try at brightening up the forum for a few hours GFS, but I think we knew it was a goose chase!!!

[Captain Shortwave]

22 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Although exact details differ the GEFS control run shows reasonable agreement at day 10 when compared to the ECM & GEM for a SW'ly flow.

FWIW the GEFS mean at day 10.

 

The ECM suite is in pretty strong agreement in developments going forward. Perhaps signs of a dry and mild theme developing more widely perhaps into week 2.

In terms of surface mean

The mean 850s for day 9 has the +4C isotherm covering the whole of the UK, in terms of cold potential that is abysmal to say the least. As for the De-Bilt ensembles, we need to be wary of the anticyclonic signal over there which will drop the temperatures somewhat (Temperatures for the UK could be quite a bit higher with a stronger south westerly feed). The one saving grace is that there is a small cluster (like with the GEFs) that have a cold signal which again could be down to heights building to our north west, though this looks a slimmer possibility than the GEFs ensemble suite earlier. 

The other positive thing is that if the ensembles/anomalies are correct then we could see a much drier prospect for those further north with much lower rainfall totals (perhaps the north west of Scotland being the exception).

 

Edited December 8, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[cowdog]

37 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Warm outlier somewhat

 

GFS

Polar opposite

Where's the donkey for this tail? 

Indicates the matter may be decided by tomorrows midday run as that's roughly when the scatter significantly starts, so we should have at least an idea which pattern is most likely in 24 hours.

Edited December 8, 2015 by cowdog

[bobbydog]

1 hour ago, Paul said:

The GFS was upgraded this time last year, the GEFS (ensembles) had their upgrade last week.

i think the upgrade was completed in spring when the parallel was discontinued. i always wondered why the GEFS weren't upgraded at the same time as the operational. it would have made more sense!

[johnholmes]

does this give the answer re dates etc?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

[nick sussex]

Oh dear NCEP don't like the GFS or ECM operational runs for the eastern USA, the GFS apparently too fast and the ECM too slow!

As for the early stages of the GFS 18hrs run that has slowed a little upstream and is different to the north ,I fear this might be yet another different solution coming up.

[Mucka]

Glug   glug   glug   

glug   glug   glug 

Edited December 8, 2015 by Mucka

[damianslaw]

Models just keep flip flopping all over the place at the moment - each one seems to churn up a different scenario. Suspect they are struggling with regard to the position of the low anchored over the azores, even BBC don't seem too sure just how far north the front will get on Saturday. Reliable timeframe is short at present - 96 hours tops.