Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[radiohead]

18Z GFS is looking a lot more like the 12Z ECM than the 12Z GFS by T138

 

[northwestsnow]

Jetstream running way south of the uk on 18z

 

[Eskimo]

Yes the accumulated precip chart looks sobering. Personally, I love rain, but for the sake of those in the NW, I hope this doesn't happen. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Ok,we need to see the 18z gfs showing a negatively tilted trough just like the 12z and also the 12z ukmo

as shown below @144hrs

gfs 12zukmo 12z

and at the same time get the high pushing further north.

Edit: hight's forming to the north @ 162 surpressing the low further south,not a bad run this  and that's as far as i will look....maybe

 

 

Edited December 8, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[knocker]

The GEFS and ecm anomalies although not precise with the orientation of the UK ridge and Atlantic trough if you move the GEFS forward a day they are very much singing the same song.  A return to some wintry outbreaks, particularly in the north, but also some quite settled and mild weather with temps in general above average with the general flow from the SW. Again more so in the south

Looking into the ecm ext period at T360 it's back to the classic pattern of vortex NW Greenland, trough western N. America, HP NE Canada and trough mid Atlantic. That spells much of the same perhaps with less of the settled mild variety with winds veering to the westerly quadrant.

 

 

[kumquat]

Monster storm somewhat akin to Nuri last year developing in Bering? Should cause a bit of amplification of the pattern upstream.

[nick sussex]

We're back to the will it or won't phase situation. If the low near the UK doesn't phase with the troughing to the west then the pattern would develop differently.

We need that low to remain separate, if that low clears under the ridge this supports the Scandi high, theres not much middle ground here.

[Liam J]

Another dogs dinner from the GFS.... Laughable. 

 

From this  To this 

  

Edited December 8, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[radiohead]

All I'm seeing on the 18Z GFS is rain, rain, rain and now by the looks of T186 yet more yet pushing up....Certainly the pattern looks a lot closer to the ECM than previous GFS runs. But it shouldn't be too surprising given the 06Z and 12Z GFS op runs were outliers, or almost outliers, in comparison to their own ensembles.

 

Edited December 8, 2015 by radiohead

[Ravelin]

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Another dogs dinner from the GFS.... Laughable. 

 

From this  To this 

I was just going to post something similar. From Greenland high to Scandinavia high at the same point in subsequent runs. How about an artic high for the 0z to make the set? 

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

I was just going to post something similar. From Greenland high to Scandinavia high at the same point in subsequent runs. How about an artic high for the 0z to make the set? 

GFS wants to play out every possible scenario.... Erratic to say the least, faith = zero... 

12z    18z 

[marksiwnc]

Surely most of these models are wrong and something is up with global models. What seems to be the problem??  Could it be the connection between El nino and global sea temperatures that are not like anything that has been in the past??  

[Allseasons-Si]

I know it's laughable to see the gfs from 12z to 18z out of reliable,it's nice to see the high develope to the north before that,it's a better run than the 12z for me

Edited December 8, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[johnholmes]

16 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

Surely most of these models are wrong and something is up with global models. What seems to be the problem??  Could it be the connection between El nino and global sea temperatures that are not like anything that has been in the past??  

But the models know exactly what all the current data is, they then 'simply' use the thermodynamic laws with complex mathematics to work out what the various parameters will be in 1 hour or x100 hours.

[kumquat]

The Pub Run says "Happy Christmas"

[gottolovethisweather]

59 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Models just keep flip flopping all over the place at the moment - each one seems to churn up a different scenario. Suspect they are struggling with regard to the position of the low anchored over the azores, even BBC don't seem too sure just how far north the front will get on Saturday. Reliable timeframe is short at present - 96 hours tops.

Indeed now we know why the individual member spreads over recent runs in the ensembles have diverge greatly from the 12th onwards. A pattern change albeit one that might last no more than just a 4-5 day period is on its way I feel. Beyond D8-D10 there are suggestions that we might revert to type but after the weekend's troublesome rain and this week's further spells of rain and wind, I think a calmer more settled period of HP could be a reasonable prospect to hope for. Who knows, we might get a reverse flow out into FI, which would warm the cockles of a few coldie's hearts in here. The more models struggle with their mid-range to longer-term evolutions the better I say, as it all smacks of a pattern change to me. 

 

Yes some inter/intra-run differences of late, I expect our friend Shannon is playing with us, nothing much changes my view from previously, if I'm honest.

 

Previously

 

 

 

 

Edited December 8, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[A Frayed Knot]

23 minutes ago, kumquat said:

The Pub Run says "Happy Christmas"

What do this mean as in Weather wise ? Sorry for this but i am a Newbie and still learning .

[bobbydog]

winter model output summary-

 

 

[Mark Neal.]

2 minutes ago, Retro Star Gazer said:

What do this mean as in Weather wise ? Sorry for this but i am a Newbie and still learning .

High Pressure. Winds from the SE? Settled for the big day. 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 minute ago, Mark N said:

High Pressure. Winds from the SE? Settled for the big day. 

Thanks Mark N

[Cheese Rice]

Model of the day goes to the NASA MODEL 

  

Other than that looking at every model on offer there does seem to be broad agreement of high pressure pushing up from the south across the UK, leading to some generally mild and calm weather, not really what we want to see.

 

 

Edited December 8, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

Model of the day goes to the NASA MODEL 

  

Other than that looking at every model on offer there does seem to be broad agreement of high pressure pushing up from the south across the UK, leading to some generally mild and calm weather, not really what we want to see.

 

 

Since when did NASA go out to 240 hrs,thanks,another medium model to look out for for comparison,looks like the gfs 12z run.

Edited December 8, 2015 by Allseasons-si

[ukpaul]

Just how bad could this get for the people already suffering from this weather, and just before Christmas too?

 

 

Edited December 9, 2015 by ukpaul

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

GFS

UKMO

GEM

Subtle difference but we do seems to be clearing some of the uncertainty upstream with deep low heights returning over Greenland with cold air digging very far south into the Atlantic, unfortunately again for us the roads all seem to point towards developing a high over Europe once the shallow, complicated features have cleared at least. Slow moving bands of heavy rain will be a major concern through this weekend and into the first half of the following week. Once the pattern irons itself out we then seem to return to the default pattern we have seen so far this winter.

Just with the chance of drier weather being more widespread this time. But again Atlantic trough/high pressure over Europe in some form. It would be nice to see some less "bah-humbug" output though.

[knocker]

The gfs has the band of rain slowly moving north on Sunday with the slow moving depression moving over the UK and filling. It should drier after the initial rain next week and quite mild with temps above average.

Charts weatherbell