Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

9 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

The jetstream forecast for that period seems to show a strong push to the south of the UK, so I don't see why a SE direction of travel for the low wouldn't be possible. It's such a small feature that I imagine it's position and intensity will vary dramatically from run to run. In the end, it may not even materialise.

Agreed but even just then we looked like N-NE flow was going to happen but again, the Euro heights survive, unless you can start to reverse the Strat Vortex Intensification, in this period of winter it just is not going to happen.

[Gavin Hannah]

18Z is in.. Nothing to get excited about. It's subtly different to the 12Z and the GFS is starting to churn out variations of the same theme.  The wait goes on..

[joggs]

I don't believe alot what the GFS churns out,been awful recently imo.

[Mucka]

ECM ensembles split on a coldish snap or mild for the period around 17th to 19th so something to look for being modeled tomorrow.

 

 

 

[nick sussex]

16 minutes ago, Mucka said:

ECM ensembles split on a coldish snap or mild for the period around 17th to 19th so something to look for being modeled tomorrow.

 

 

 

Theres been quite a switch especially if you look at the wind direction ones for De Bilt, the majority swing round to the ne/e which suggests they take that weakening nuisance low se and don't phase that with the upstream troughing.

[bradymk]

Just wondering if anyone on here knows anything about the ECM parallel run that started running yesterday and where you can see it? Thanks.

[Cheese Rice]

Snow risk further north on this run, southern Scotland/far North of England look like a sweet spot 

Freezing levels around 100m over the Newcastle area, could be a tricky commute if this comes of 

  

Could see a couple of inches, of a nice surprise for those in the purple zones considering how mild it's been lately. 

 

Edited December 10, 2015 by Cheese Rice

[Mucka]

GFS 00z possibly hints at where those colder ECM runs in last night's ensembles may have evolved (around 17th to 19th) even though it fails.

 

We can see how we could of picked up a NE flow if there was less forcing of the pattern or as far as Nick is concerned phasing of the low with the Atlantic trough.

It is an improvement on recent GFS output anyway even if it isn't what we would ultimately like to see.

 

And Just For Fun GFS FI gives us some random cold from  a perfectly situated deep trough with Atlantic lows magically disrupting in just the right places which results in snow for the North before a nice snowy channel low for the South

 

 

Before a ridge moves in and gives us a nice ice day on the big day itself

 

 

Ho Ho ho snow and cold for everybody!  That truly is an absolute classic Xmas coldie troll from GFS

Edited December 10, 2015 by Mucka

[snowangel32]

So the gfs comes in this morning with a small ray of hope for the Big day its self and shows us that nothing is set in stone. No matter what we think we might know. Will this end up being just a tease or a start of a trend after the last few days horror show refreshing to see how quick the models can flip the other way. This winter is already proving a nightmare for the models to get a grip on and it would take a very brave man to call it one way or the other. But this morning so far a small victory for the coldies.

 

[jvenge]

24 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

So the gfs comes in this morning with a small ray of hope for the Big day its self and shows us that nothing is set in stone. No matter what we think we might know. Will this end up being just a tease or a start of a trend after the last few days horror show refreshing to see how quick the models can flip the other way. This winter is already proving a nightmare for the models to get a grip on and it would take a very brave man to call it one way or the other. But this morning so far a small victory for the coldies.

 

Well, Mucka did say it was just for fun. It's also at 372 and has little support.

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, jvenge said:

Well, Mucka did say it was just for fun. It's also at 372 and has little support.

True it is FI but it's also the same FI that showed mild conditions yesterday but charts were posted. So even if it's the deepest FI it still a chance of a cold evolution. Be interesting to see the charts throughout the day and see if picks up any pace for a colder evolution. Could be a trend or it could be a garden path lol. But we all know we will all be there for the ride. The game is not over just yet. 

[Frosty.]

The Astronomical winter starts on 21st December so that gfs 00z cold spell would be perfect timing..cheer up coldies it's still autumn! :-)

 

[Polar Maritime]

9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Astronomical winter starts on 21st December so that gfs 00z cold spell would be perfect timing..cheer up coldies it's still autumn! :-)

 

Yes Frosty some promise this morning from the GFS as we head towards Christmas this morning, With -12 850's touching Scotland as a cold Northerly sinks South around the 21/22.

 

Edited December 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[knocker]

Little change in the gfs take on the two systems this weekend with the second low gradually clearing to the east by Tuesday before the next system arrives later in the week. There doesn't appear to be much rainfall on them (not that I take any notice of the model predictions from here) so hopefully this will be the case.

Charts weatherbell

 

[bluearmy]

7 hours ago, Mucka said:

ECM ensembles split on a coldish snap or mild for the period around 17th to 19th so something to look for being modeled tomorrow.

 

 

 

The period around mid month was always an option for a coldish snap on the extended ens and also the EC 32 a few weeks ago.  However, the op ECM doesn't seem to be interested in any cold flow. The ens could also be picking up on some continental influence into se England close to the euro high which would deliver some coldish days. 

[Liam J]

Nice GFS which would deliver a cold Xmas present to the UK, can't help feel it's wrong given how many times over the last number of weeks we've seen some cold charts in FI come and go with little support, ECM turns into a horror show and deviates earlier on from the GFS, a time when the ECM would usually beat it. 

 

 

[knocker]

Just popping into the woodshed to make sure the barbe's in fine fettle

 

[blizzard81]

Well, I must admit the rest of december and possibly beyond looks very bleak indeed for cold lovers. There is normally some glimmer to hold on to but alas this morning there is nothing. Typing this just before i go out into yet another deluge of rain. It is absolutely awful and relentless up here.

[mulzy]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

Just popping into the woodshed to make sure the barbe's in fine fettle

 

The warmest December ever recorded (in CET terms) is very much on with this kind of model output.

It doesn't get much worse than this for cold lovers...

[marksiwnc]

Well what is good to think about is that the met office computer has put  the overall temp between Dec,Jan and Feb to be on the cold side so I'm going to look forward to the following months to balance from this month should be exciting. 

[pyrotech]

A little joke to tease us by the GFS for xmas day

 

[coldcomfort]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Just popping into the woodshed to make sure the barbe's in fine fettle

 

What I find remarkable is the extent of the anomolous warmth, Greenland to Egypt, Morocco to Murmansk and indeed way beyond. If there is to be a balance in the 2nd half of winter, let's hope it's via this kind kind of extremes, because if so we will all be deep, deep in the freezer for some considerable time. 

[rain_shadow]

15 minutes ago, coldcomfort said:

What I find remarkable is the extent of the anomolous warmth, Greenland to Egypt, Morocco to Murmansk and indeed way beyond. If there is to be a balance in the 2nd half of winter, let's hope it's via this kind kind of extremes, because if so we will all be deep, deep in the freezer for some considerable time. 

It looks like there IS "some" balance though as the Eastern 1/4 of the map is very blue. Hopefully both sides of the map get some balance.

[Nouska]

There were many options for the extended period - I refer to my post of yesterday.

What the GFS is showing is perfectly feasible within the broad scope on ECM and MOGrep ensembles. The fact the Euro high is a "slight favourite" does not, at this stage. mean it is a done deal.

 

[cheshire snow]

Blimey some difference in temperature for Midnight Saturday on the

06GFS -5c in the North west Highlands to +11c in London a 16c

Different from north to south quite staggering 

C.S