Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[snowangel32]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

I'm not a great believer in model rainfall forecasts but for what's worth the latest from the gfs up to Tuesday. Hopefully the areas in the north that have had more than sufficient it wont be too bad. Not much of significance for the rest of the run except to note temps above average out to day, sometimes ridiculously so.

Charts weatherbell

 

 

Knocker are those Anomaly charts projected surface temps.

[jvenge]

1 minute ago, snowangel32 said:

Knocker are those Anomaly charts projected surface temps.

They are 2 meter temperatures, which obviously have some flaws, but not enough to make a huge difference. 

[Nick L]

7 minutes ago, jvenge said:

They are 2 meter temperatures, which obviously have some flaws, but not enough to make a huge difference. 

The general standard temperature observation is at 2m. 

[knocker]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

The general standard temperature observation is at 2m. 

And just to wrap this up  the (WMO) agreed standard for the height of the thermometers is between 1.25 m (4 ft 1 in) and 2 m (6 ft 7 in)

[bluearmy]

8 hours ago, knocker said:

Yes the last run ba unless I'm misreading it. I'll be surprised if further observation is not pretty near the mark.

 

 

 

Sorry - was late and I missed the word 'control'.  I don't bother with the control unless looking for a potential quick trop response to a forecast ssw and we don't have that in the ether next four weeks.

the new ec32 mean keeps heights and slp over Europe high.  The rest is irrelevant because of this. (Unless there is a significant cluster that contradicts this ).

[shaky]

Euro4 seems interesting regarding the shortwave saturday!!seems to have taken it further south again and anywhere from sheffield northwards has a chance of snow!!!gfs slightly further north again but further south than yesterday!!down to nowcasting maybe!!

[knocker]

Hadn't noticed ba's post but I'll post the irrelevance anyway. Or at least my take on it.

A brief overview of the latest EC32 means output. Keep in mind this is not the full monty.

The upper air analysis on the 21st. Low pressure over the Pole and NW Greenland with troughs eastern Europe, western N. America and eastern Atlantic with ridging to the east of the UK.  Ergo periods of wet and windy weather for the latter with temps above average.

During the next week no significant change except the eastern European trough weakens with perhaps a suspicion of height rises over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic trough is less extensive south. So still periods of unsettled weather over the UK but perhaps more fine interludes further south.  Temps now nearer the average.

From here to the end of the run the Iceland trough becomes more negatively tilted towards Scandinavia perhaps allowing more influence from the HP pushing up from the SW/S so more settled weather for all with temps around average.

Summary

Periods of unsettled weather will continue throughout which could be quite wintry in the north with incursions of PM air. Thus the south and east more inclined to settled periods. Temps above average at first becoming average but of course there will be swings as systems pass through

The NAO and AO remain positive throughout.

Edited December 11, 2015 by knocker

[Liam J]

1 hour ago, snowangel32 said:

For anyone dreaming of a seasonal Xmas look away now.

18z kept us in with a chance

 

00z takes it away

 

From a White Christmas to a tropical Christmas. 

The 18z would have perhaps given a transient white Christmas to northern hills before much milder air moved in.

And the 00z would still be pretty chilly for the majority.

Anyway not worth looking at detail that far ahead....

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z shows a sharp temperature contrast from north to south this weekend, especially tomorrow and there will be a spell of wet snow tomorrow across some of the hills of northern england and a spell of persistent and sometimes heavy rain on low ground across the central swathe of the uk. Looking further ahead, it stays generally unsettled and the north gradually becomes milder from the south during the course of next week but there are some Pm incursions through low res as well as some settled interludes with night frosts and fog,, especially further south.

[IDO]

The update to the JMA is consistent to the last few weeks with a very similar pattern till early January, as expected, mid-Jan is where changes need to happen otherwise it could be a long winter for cold hunters, though I am more than hopeful that we will turn colder around then. 

       

The CFS week 3-4 is offering much of the same long wave pattern. Whether we get a more TM or PM flow will ebb and flow, though the south will be a milder regime under this synoptic. The UKMO have dumped any cold for the week 3 and 4 saying it will most likely be mild and wet: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast. The CET is plus 5.2c above normal! Looking at the GFS London ENS the mean remains about 5c above the T850's 30 year average for week 1 and about 2-3c for week 2. The ECM that was showing a cooling down for 4-5 days only a few days ago is now a blowtorch for most of its run. 

So its a case of grin and bear it till the New Year and hope some better charts start to show up in FI, by then we will have a better grasp of what the underlying Jan to March pattern will be without any forcing from strat warming (which I suspect may be our best hope for anything blocked).

 

 

 

[mb018538]

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.gif

Some truly remarkable output this morning, with the chance of something really exceptional shown here. A feed all the way from North Africa in parts of the SE. Would anyone like to hazard a guess at some temperatures if this verifies??! 16-17c perhaps?? The month is already 5c over average, and this is just getting crazy now!

[knocker]

The GEFS temp anomaly for next week. Truly odd times

Chart weatherbell

 

[booferking]

More of the same for next 10 days or so but i still have a sneaky feeling that the charts will flip to cold in fi again in time for Xmas.

[Summer Sun]

The south and south east looks best placed for some very mild weather later next week on this mornings UKMO with the north and west most at risk of seeing further rain

 

[carinthian]

 Just look at the extent of that 10C Isotherm over mainland Europe at pressure level 850mb for start of Christmas week at ( about 5000feet ) Crazy warmth. Hope that forecast model is wrong as help comes to mind for all in  Alpine Ski-ing locations. It may be over playing these exceptional; values but mild looks liked locked in at latitudes below 50N prior to Christmas.

c

 

[IDO]

As the front moves north around midday tomorrow and meets the colder air there is a small window for the Derbyshire/Peak District to get some brief transient snow. The hi-res model WRF (2 hour segments):

      

Wales and Ireland and the Midlands getting some moderate accumulations:        

Next 10 days rainfall for the south looking average to below and the NW facing regions look to get the worse of it again, though thankfully maybe not as bad as the last week.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by IDO

[Liam J]

@IDO Derbyshire & the Peak District must have moved northwards since I last checked?! 

Nope still in the same place...

Edited December 11, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[geordiekev]

17 minutes ago, carinthian said:

 Just look at the extent of that 10C Isotherm over mainland Europe at pressure level 850mb for start of Christmas week at ( about 5000feet ) Crazy warmth. Hope that forecast model is wrong as help comes to mind for all in  Alpine Ski-ing locations. It may be over playing these exceptional; values but mild looks liked locked in at latitudes below 50N prior to Christmas.

c

 

Totally agree, that the current synopsis and temps for time of year is strange in comparison to recent years. However, u cant help but think that the shape of the jetstream which is also clear on your posted chart is such a severe u bend and full of energy that the direction of travel can't be sustained.

Its the one time I am hoping for a deepening low to flatten out the azores high around the 20-22nd which could make things a bit more seasonal if heights remain in the atlantic.

[IDO]

3 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

@IDO Derbyshire & the Peak District must have moved northwards since I last checked?! 

Nope still in the same place...

High ground only event (>200 metres) so Peak District a possible along with Pennines:

UKMO warning: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1449878400

Uncertainty as always with snow forecasts but most other models are over the Peak District area (do not know what netweather uses):

  GFS:  

Edited December 11, 2015 by Paul
Fixing broken post

[Liam J]

Guess there's still some uncertainty on how far north the front gets, the charts you posted had the snow further north than Derbyshire. The charts I used are from the NetWx-SR model which used to be the NMM 4km, which if correct the snow would be much further north. 

GFS 6z charts for tomorrow afternoon, milder air not far away from Derbyshire. 

The warning just about reaches the Northern Peak District, but mostly in the rain warning. 

Edited December 11, 2015 by Paul
Fixing broken post

[MR EXTREMES]

As I suggested sometime ago the current Nino and powerful vortex is certainly running the show at the moment got fingers crossed for a decent strat warming.

it certainly very 97/98 like and the models still showing the euro heights all the fun and games of the last few days or more of northern blocking is all but gone.

although I do feel ridges will keep things a little more dryer in the southernmost parts of the U.K.

over all the next few weeks show typical Nino dominated pattern and I strongly believe this will dominate through winter.

[MP-R]

29 minutes ago, emotional rollercoaster said:

As I suggested sometime ago the current Nino and powerful vortex is certainly running the show at the moment got fingers crossed for a decent strat warming.

it certainly very 97/98 like and the models still showing the euro heights all the fun and games of the last few days or more of northern blocking is all but gone.

although I do feel ridges will keep things a little more dryer in the southernmost parts of the U.K.

over all the next few weeks show typical Nino dominated pattern and I strongly believe this will dominate through winter.

I think it's been established that there is no typical El Nino pattern as pretty much every event has produced different weather patterns.

I'm also failing to see where this powerful vortex is? It looks really disorganised and it leads me to think that the main problem is heights over Europe. If they would only shove of then a entry would be open for lows to slip traditionally eastwards rather than south then north towards the UK at the last minute. We're actually closer to colder weather than many think, as shown by the conditions in the north of the UK but heights over Europe are really proving a pain in the fire exit.

The most intriguing thing viewing the models is how lows are rapidly intensifying just to the southwest of the UK and I wonder if that's the effect of such warm air crossing cold seas?

[blitzen]

Anyone know what this is about and what it would mean?  Don't think I've heard it mentioned.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/674808091028774912

Edited December 11, 2015 by Blitzen

[cheshire snow]

06GFS flips back to colder weather in FI,Northerly Xmas eve,followed

By a cold Christmas Day,no doubt back to mild on the 12z

C.S

[Frosty.]

This is more like it, the Gfs 6z shows a seasonal feel to the christmas period with some snow showers, especially to coastal areas and with a crisp frosty start to the big day and cold polar maritime shots to follow...hopefully a chilly christmas to come rather than a mild mushy one!!

Edited December 11, 2015 by Frosty.