Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[kev238]

It seems pretty clear there will be  no significant cold spell pre xmas 

what is clearly up for play are a whole range of warm temperature records - if the pattern remains as it is then the December CET will be smashed , whilst november / December records ( combined) will also go

 

[nick sussex]

Looking at the differences between the GFS and UKMO there is some uncertainty over the eastern USA with how energy ejected from the Pacific works eastwards.

If you compare the ECM 00hrs run T168hrs with the UKMO T144hrs they're very similar.

[Cheshire Freeze]

22 minutes ago, IDO said:

The UKMO has been terrible at D6 for weeks as it over does low height anomalies over the UK. Ignore it when it does until there is support. Its bias is clear and strange (10 day bias):

  GFS Mean:  OP also at D6: 

The GEFS Mean is similar to the op so very good support and the GEM is also closer to GFS. 

 

Even having the GFS ensemble mean close to the op run is next to meaningless IMO. I've seen many, many examples of the ensemble mean being 100% behind the op only for both the op and ensembles to flip within the space of a couple of runs. So please excuse me if that carries next to no weight in my eyes!

[Captain Shortwave]

6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Even having the GFS ensemble mean close to the op run is next to meaningless IMO. I've seen many, many examples of the ensemble mean being 100% behind the op only for both the op and ensembles to flip within the space of a couple of runs. So please excuse me if that carries next to no weight in my eyes!

But it is the upgraded GEFs suite so we can't really judge on that front at the moment, perhaps by the end of the winter we can come up with our own conclusions but at the moment we cannot assume one way or the other

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Captain Shortwave said:

But it is the upgraded GEFs suite so we can't really judge on that front at the moment, perhaps by the end of the winter we can come up with our own conclusions but at the moment we cannot assume one way or the other

Quite. Though with the amount of upgrades the NWP have had over the years you'd think we'd be predicting with relative ease up to 14 days by now. In reality we're still dithering over how far N tomorrow's rain will hit.

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

But it is the upgraded GEFs suite so we can't really judge on that front at the moment, perhaps by the end of the winter we can come up with our own conclusions but at the moment we cannot assume one way or the other

These GFS/GEFS upgrades happen all the time though and they make no difference, it still sits comfortably third but still consistently lags behind the UKMO/ECM so my money is on a continuation of a similar set of stats.

The only caveat is the new GEFS fare better stratospherically, I haven't done any analysis but Recretos in the strat thread has intimated this a few pages back in the Strat thread.

Edited December 11, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Mucka]

Well ECM out to 120 is more UKMO than GFS 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

That's some serious cold spilling down into the states....we seem to be saying this every winter just recently! Goes against all of those long rangers going uber warm for over there. Seems we're getting it instead!

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

21 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well ECM out to 120 is more UKMO than GFS 

 

By day 6 the ECM doesn't really take the GFS or UKMO solution, a sort of amalgamation of the two, in the end Thursday is just mild, but then the outlook onwards ends up milder than the GFS with the Atlantic trough becoming slow moving with south westerlies persisting into the weekend.

 

Spain and Southern France are being completely blowtorched, if my geography is correct then Nick Sussex will be on the end of 850s of +16C by next weekend.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[tinybill]

hi just been looking deep into fantasy world  i just hope xmas  days weather dont hit the news for the wrong reasons ex the top half of the  u.k.   the gfs is not looking not to good  to say the least  at the  moment  you  could  get  snow /rain in the places  which don't want  it  at  the  moment

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

[knocker]

The ecm has a pretty incredible temp anomaly on the 19th of +17F. Max temps of around 16C

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Crewe keep faith....Florida is two thirds of our tiny island so not unusual USA will get cold.......still hoping for a change around Xmas day

Oh I have the faith, the flip will come.....I'm just getting impatient! Mild Christmases are just 'urgh'

[Liam J]

Some GFS bashing this evening lol...So the GFS is pretty poor even at close range and it lags behind in verification stats, and yet many folk seem to forget that and appear to give it some more credence when it shows cold charts in the depths of FI with little or no support 

12z ECM almost a carbon copy of the 00z, if you want consistency...

12z  00z 

 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm has a pretty incredible temp anomaly on the 19th of +17F. Max temps of around 16C

Not to worry, knocks - it must have 'gone off on one'?

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Some GFS bashing this evening lol...So the GFS is pretty poor even at close range and it lags behind in verification stats, and yet many folk seem to forget that and appear to give it some more credence when it shows cold charts in the depths of FI with little or no support 

12z ECM almost a carbon copy of the 00z, if you want consistency...

12z  00z 

 

The GFS is actually a very good trend spotter in FI, I'll give it that much.

[knocker]

10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's some serious cold spilling down into the states....we seem to be saying this every winter just recently! Goes against all of those long rangers going uber warm for over there. Seems we're getting it instead!

 

 

I shouldn't get too down hearted the snow forecasts for most of the US are dire. And I'm not too sure about serious cold.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

ECM carries on where the 0z left it at 240 hrs

 

Tentative signs of a change

[NO LONGER POSTING]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's some serious cold spilling down into the states....we seem to be saying this every winter just recently! Goes against all of those long rangers going uber warm for over there. Seems we're getting it instead!

 

 

This is not good... Fire up the jet stream!

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The GFS is actually a very good trend spotter in FI, I'll give it that much.

By that, take it you mean - once in a blue moon - it hits on an outcome that's broadly in agreement with reality? What about all those other times, when its 'trends', along with those of the other models, simply evaporate?

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

By that, take it you mean - once in a blue moon - it hits on an outcome that's broadly in agreement with reality? What about all those other times, when its 'trends', along with those of the other models, simply evaporate?

Well if some didn't evaporate the model would be able to do something no other can- i.e forecast with accuracy 14 days ahead. There would be no other model needed

I believe in 2009, 2010 and 2013 the GFS picked up the cold spells first, way out in FI.

[nick sussex]

Its a good thing theres a swear filter in here! The ECM for cold potential is ghastly, if I'm being charitable at T240hrs a nose of high pressure ridges in towards the polar region from the Pacific side which might help edge the jet a little further south.

Sadly you can always bank on ECM consistency when its dishing out these mild outputs. The skiing season may well stop in many resorts with very mild 850's flooding most of Europe.  Looks like a lot of lay offs and many disappointed Brits who had skiing holidays booked. Even if the weather changes towards Christmas a lot of the companies will already have cancelled.

We can but hope for a miracle but the ECM is as flat as a pancake with only the faintest sign of the patient being revived at T240hrs.

Lets hope for some changes, at this point an average westerly flow would be welcomed in many of the ski resorts as a major success!

Until further notice you will find me in the moan thread!

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Its a good thing theres a swear filter in here! The ECM for cold potential is ghastly, if I'm being charitable at T240hrs a nose of high pressure ridges in towards the polar region from the Pacific side which might help edge the jet a little further south.

Sadly you can always bank on ECM consistency when its dishing out these mild outputs. The skiing season may well stop in many resorts with very mild 850's flooding most of Europe.  Looks like a lot of lay offs and many disappointed Brits who had skiing holidays booked. Even if the weather changes towards Christmas a lot of the companies will already have cancelled.

We can but hope for a miracle but the ECM is as flat as a pancake with only the faintest sign of the patient being revived at T240hrs.

Lets hope for some changes, at this point an average westerly flow would be welcomed in many of the ski resorts as a major success!

Until further notice you will find me in the moan thread!

Nick, day 10 isn't that bad at all on the ECM but I agree, days 8 and 9 are particularly gruesome with an almost perfect arc of the jet across the Atlantic and through the UK (you couldn't draw a neater line with a compass). We can take comfort that the signal for change is still there though at the end of the run!

Edited December 11, 2015 by CreweCold

[gottolovethisweather]

33 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Some GFS bashing this evening lol...So the GFS is pretty poor even at close range and it lags behind in verification stats, and yet many folk seem to forget that and appear to give it some more credence when it shows cold charts in the depths of FI with little or no support 

12z ECM almost a carbon copy of the 00z, if you want consistency...

12z  00z 

 

I'm not a fan of any particular model, i.e. GFS over ECM and UKMO or vice versa as I try to look at an amalgamation of all outputs as to what I believe is likely to verify at a given timescale. The general cross-model consensus currently seems to favour some extremes in Temperature and increasing storm activity across many parts of the globe right now, with some big climatic upheavals when compared to normal (El Nino's final fling perhaps?). Deep depressions across the Pacific, more storminess in the run up to Christmas week for us too. A bitter cold blast across Central and Eastern Europe beforehand, currently, some UK snow from Northern England Northwards and into the weekend. Potential for deep cold in the US too.

 

All in all, my consensus is that I won't be trusting anything beyond D6 and that our much-hyped (by me at least) pattern change is simply delayed and has simply dodged our shores for the time being. The second half of December and the rest of Winter itself will continue to make the news headlines for all the right and wrong reasons, in my opinion, you have been warned. I'd suggest we place our trust in no one particular model, but should place our trust in Mother Nature. Its as if, the weather models know that there is a climate summit going on Paris and that a deal is imminent. 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

23 minutes ago, Surrey said:

This is not good... Fire up the jet stream!

Indeed, the ECM is the most likely to verify too, as denoted by those earlier stats. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, gottolovethisweather said:

Indeed, the ECM is the most likely to verify too, as denoted by those earlier stats. 

 

Oh dear, I don't follow this thread as much as I should but has any seen the jet profile for later in the month.

Way way way F.I I get that but I am getting some DE JU VU