Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[nick sussex]

14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Nick, day 10 isn't that bad at all on the ECM but I agree, days 8 and 9 are particularly gruesome with an almost perfect arc of the jet across the Atlantic and through the UK. We can take comfort that the signal for change is still there though at the end of the run!

The ECM output would get vertigo in a sewer!  There is actually some decent skiing at the moment in the higher resorts especially in Cauterets but this is before the blowtorch arrives from western Africa. And those geese are driving me nuts, they've parked out in the fields and are going non-stop 24 hours a day, they normally stop off here briefly on their way south but with the extended summer here I think they've got confused and have decided to set up shop! Seriously though I don't mind them but they're just a daily reminder of the never ending limpet Euro high!

Anyway I'd better stop moaning and get back to the outputs! In terms of the ECM that ridge pushing into the Arctic might help to bring a few changes. The PV blob is actually mainly to the ne especially towards Siberia  but still those chunks left in Greenland are a nuisance. Whether that ridge survives future outputs we'll see.

Edited December 11, 2015 by nick sussex

[Steve C]

12 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM output would get vertigo in a sewer!  There is actually some decent skiing at the moment in the higher resorts especially in Cauterets but this is before the blowtorch arrives from western Africa. And those geese are driving me nuts, they've parked out in the fields and are going non-stop 24 hours a day, they normally stop off here on their way south but with the extended summer here I think they've got confused! Seriously though I don't mind them but they're just a daily reminder of the never ending limpet Euro high!

Anyway I'd better stop moaning and get back to the outputs! In terms of the ECM that ridge pushing into the Arctic might help to bring a few changes. The PV blob is actually mainly to the ne especially towards Siberia  but still those chunks left in Greenland are a nuisance. Whether that ridge survives future outputs we'll see.

What I really appreciate about your posts it that they are unbiased. You're obviously a coldie (I dislike the terminology that happens here - maybe I should say a person who'd love a cold shot / period etc.) but you say it like it is. Long may your posts continue and be recognised. 

Lazy sods, like myself,  just look here to see what the experts think will happen down the line, whatever is thrown at us and will look for postings from people like you.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Steve C

[IDO]

53 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

ECM carries on where the 0z left it at 240 hrs

 

Tentative signs of a change

We have been saying that for over a week now, those D10 charts never get any closer! Anyway I thought the GFS was a very mild run, but the ECM trumped that with above average uppers for the south for the next 10 days. That will leave less than a third of December left and a CET average over +4c looks viable. 

Still kindling of the strat with wave attacks so as long as this stays in the background there is always hope from January that a strat warming can reset this repeating pattern. It remains our best hope as even the much maligned CFS monthlies are now trending milder for Q1 of 2016, for what that is worth. I have already a while back written off up till mid Jan so no change on that from what I am seeing, an entrenched pattern with little forcing to allow changes from the positive NAO and AO as the PV builds. That will play a back seat as we enter January as the El Nino pattern will drive the upstream pattern. So early Jan we should get a glimpse of what to expect for the rest of the Winter (barring strat warming events) and I suspect it will not be as mild as Nov/Dec.

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by IDO

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Steve C said:

What I really appreciate about your posts it that they are unbiased. You're obviously a coldie (I dislike the terminology that happens here - maybe I should say a person who'd love a cold shot / period etc.) but you say it like it is. Long may your posts continue and be recognised.

Lazy sods, like myself,  just look here to see what the experts think will happen down the line, whatever is thrown at us.

Thanks. Well  you can correlate the outputs with how melodramatic my posts are. Good as in cold potential, less dramatic, poor as in mild, you start seeing film references, talk of geese etc before I go completely into throwing my toys out of the pram routine. Generally I like to highlight cold potential if I think it has a chance but am happy to call a spade a spade when its not looking likely. I think recent winters have brought a stark reminder as to how difficult it is to get very good cold synoptics into the UK.

The thing with weather is its fluid, no matter how poor the outputs might look now in terms of cold potential the outputs are continually evolving.

[Gavin Hannah]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The thing with weather is its fluid, no matter how poor the outputs might look now in terms of cold potential the outputs are continually evolving.

True, I just have the feeling that the UK constantly gets the shaft when mother nature hands out her winter goodies... We have to wait for her to fall asleep on the job for us to get a sniff of a decent winter.

 

I will say that the GFS is being pretty consistent with the next 6 to 7 days pattern. It's the fine detail of what actual evolves that will determine what happens come the big day and I will happily settle for PM westerlies if it means I can hit the slopes up north around Xmas and New year. 

Beeb weather suggested last night that the Jet will flatten out over the next week and pretty much run over the UK which would be better than having it drive up from the deep south I reckon. I think that would allow more PM shots as has been seen on some of the outputs. At this point I will be happy to just avoid a blow torch event which would really screw up my snowboarding plans.

 

[Daniel*]

At least there is some genuine wintriness in the immediate future to talk about. Hate to be the bearer of bad news (William cover your eyes) there will be absolutely no chance of snow for the peaks tomorrow. As it looks on latest run it's sealed with the low further north on the northern flank there is scope for significant snowfall on uplands for North Pennines etc and chance of snow falling to quite low levels out of evaporative cooling quite precarious the boundary is. But some snow for some not unusual but welcome as I do not see much white stuff going forward.

 

 

[phil nw.]

There's no sign of any way out of this solid +NAO pattern yet, with the Euro slug a reaction to the Vortex intensification to our north.

The Naefs for T240/384hrs showing little change

It still appears the mean track of the jet continues to be around our latitude for the next 2 weeks with a mix of colder/milder airmasses moving north and south across the UK.

The temperature graphs for Aberdeen and Warks. from the GEFs pretty much reflect this

These as always do give a wider spread the further out you go, but providing they are viewed regularly for general trends they usually give a decent idea of what's ahead.Indeed they have consistently showed this current colder spell for the Midlands  and North for a long while now.

No great shakes for deep cold then but based on these at least we are heading for a more seasonal feel towards Christmas week as temperatures look like falling back again.

 

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by phil nw.

[ANYWEATHER]

Scrolling through the model output from ecm and gfs  its a case of "as you are" or" De Je Vu".  Yes pockets of colder air at times  even to southern England ,but snow mainly confined to the mountains of Scotland.  Christmas Day from the 12z gfs shows  an example of what I mean a "pocket" and fleeting shot of cold air, Perhaps Stormy  at times across the nation with flooding problems in some places too, Sorry to tell the truth and not make up the outlook with loads of lipstick glossed on  it , but real Winter for most at the moment is a Christmas Dream...

[Summer Sun]

The ECM op and ens at d10 both show a similar set up for the UK with a deep low centred between Iceland and Scotland leaving us with strong to gale force winds and further rain.

At the say time across the pond the states could be heading for another spell of freezing temps with some very cold air shown to move down

 

 

[Mair Snaw]

3 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Let's hope the much maligned CFS monthlies aren't influenced by their daily cousins

 

Dear Santa.... i dont care its 3 days late..... Bank Bank Bank....lol

[bluearmy]

What I notice and out the ECM day 10 mean and spreads is that the uncertainty in where the PFJ is likely to sit is spreading South. we could easily see pretty low heights across n Europe coupled with systems heading east in the base of the upper trough. Whilst not necessarily wintry white (apart from upland UK where the precip meets the cooler air ), it could well be fairly wild. Will be looking to see how the wind speeds look for London and de bilt around the 20/23rd.  With little sign that blocking is going to deliver any cold flow to nw Europe, a general sinking south of the low heights could be the only route to any cold this side of the new year. 

 

 

[Yarmy]

3 hours ago, IDO said:

The UKMO has been terrible at D6 for weeks as it over does low height anomalies over the UK. Ignore it when it does until there is support. Its bias is clear and strange (10 day bias):

  GFS Mean:  OP also at D6: 

The GEFS Mean is similar to the op so very good support and the GEM is also closer to GFS. 

 

 

IDO, where do you get your NH mean bias charts? I was looking for something like that a while back: are there charts for the other models too? 

[Costa Del Fal]

1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

Nick, day 10 isn't that bad at all on the ECM but I agree, days 8 and 9 are particularly gruesome with an almost perfect arc of the jet across the Atlantic and through the UK (you couldn't draw a neater line with a compass). We can take comfort that the signal for change is still there though at the end of the run!

But that signal for change is always at the end of the run!! If I had money for every time the ECM 240 was said to hold promise I would be rich! 

Sorry but it was around now a proper cold spell was due early in December, then it was about the 17th, then about Christmas Day, now it's quite possible it will be 2016 before the pattern truly shifts.

[Mair Snaw]

Well nearly time for the Pub run.... it wouldn't be a total shock if it pulled out a classic Friday  night on the Gin.... even if its just to give us cold snow hunters something to look at....

[Costa Del Fal]

5 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Sounds like July/August summer models this year

Indeed yes. But that pattern change is firmly stuck at 240 plus. Unless your high up in the Pennines or highlands there is nearly zero chance of snow. Fact. Things such as tentative signs of change. Cmon, we all need to be real here and face the facts. Until patterns start coming out of 240 and closer there is on the ECM at least, no signs of change. That euro slug has the tendency to uograde closer to the time this pushing the jet further north and subsequently its associated low pressures. But for a strong El Niño I'm not surprised at how this season is panning out so far. Not sure why some seem perplexed - maybe it was the media hype dished out by the usual tabloids earlier this year. This is not aimed at anyone specific here but a general observation.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Costa Del Fal

[Nouska]

Up thread somebody was mentioning verification stats for Europe - the most recent monthly Z500 from the ECMWF. UKMO looks to be equal top with ECM at T+144.

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

[IDO]

32 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

 

IDO, where do you get your NH mean bias charts? I was looking for something like that a while back: are there charts for the other models too? 

Hi, yes they are for most of the main models: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/

When the page loads tap on "Individual Frame" in the top right quadrant to get things going.

[nick sussex]

6 minutes ago, Nouska said:

Up thread somebody was mentioning verification stats for Europe - the most recent monthly Z500 from the ECMWF. UKMO looks to be equal top with ECM at T+144.

http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z

Great find Nouska. Thanks very much for that.

[Bristawl Si]

27 minutes ago, Costa Del Fal said:

But that signal for change is always at the end of the run!! If I had money for every time the ECM 240 was said to hold promise I would be rich! 

Sorry but it was around now a proper cold spell was due early in December, then it was about the 17th, then about Christmas Day, now it's quite possible it will be 2016 before the pattern truly shifts.

It's there every year and often every week.

"Change" and "pattern change" pop up constantly on NW, esp in the Winter months. One gets used to these soothsayer phrases.

[legritter]

We seem to be gently sailing along ,It seems that every day the charts are almost predictable ,with every chance now of some amazing pre christmas temperatures possibly passing the low 60s .

ok  boring for most of us cold and snow merchants but so far this late autumn and early winter we have seen some amazing synoptics ,this is where i,m personally hoping that our cold shots will come as a very fluid and predictable weather pattern  possibly changes ,we seem to get long periods of the Same weather types  so heres hoping .

This weather forum still the best around for content ,learning  ,and each day a challenge so all crack open a STella ,

[Yarmy]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi, yes they are for most of the main models: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/

When the page loads tap on "Individual Frame" in the top right quadrant to get things going.

That's great, many thanks. 

[knocker]

The 6-10 anomalies tonight are portending periods of wet and windy weather to the northern half of of the UK, perhaps occasionally including the south. But the latter should have reasonable settled periods and with the general flow in the south west temps will be above average. In the ext period I'm still not that happy with the GEFS as it diverges from the ecm so taking the latter at T360 we still have the familiar pattern with the trough running a fair way south just to the west of the UK. So continuing very unsettled but temps nearer average.

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by knocker

[WillinGlossop]

42 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Well nearly time for the Pub run.... it wouldn't be a total shock if it pulled out a classic Friday  night on the Gin.... even if its just to give us cold snow hunters something to look at....

Your in crich should snow tomoz for a little bit.... Never know evap cooling... Anything from nothing to 20cm possibilty .... Seen forecast temps for tomoz anything from between 1c to 12c.... We shall see... Depends how far north the front gets....

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, WillinGlossop said:

Your in crich should snow tomoz for a little bit.... Never know evap cooling... Anything from nothing to 20cm possibilty .... Seen forecast temps for tomoz anything from between 1c to 12c.... We shall see... Depends how far north the front gets....

Been keeping my eye on it and not allowing myself to get excited at all but will be prepared to take full advantage if it does happen...

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS completely different at 135 hours out East and North East...guess we have our answer Re how the upgrade has affected the ensembles!