Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[warrenb]

5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why would it be wrong? The upper air pattern GFS predicts seems to support what it is doing. Of course that may be wrong but it fits the 12z output but how consistent is that with the 12z yesterday or say the ECMWF at the same period? I ask because I have not yet had time to do a comparison.

 

Well if you run through it is basically the same low pressure from 78hrs all the way through to 225hrs (the latest I can see), it just comes up from the south to the north then just meanders around for days.

 

Edit:and still the same low almost non moving at 240hrs

Edited December 11, 2015 by warrenb

[Eskimo]

5 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Wedll if you run through it is basically the same low pressure from 78hrs all the way through to 225hrs (the latest I can see), it just comes up from the south to the north then just meanders around for days.

Not the same low pressure. The low you're talking about darts out from the eastern seaboard and temporarily merges with the larger low pressure to the north, before breaking away, stalling, meandering for a good 4 days (which is normal) before moving and dissipating away. 

Look at the run again. 

Edited December 11, 2015 by PerfectStorm

[Mucka]

I was hoping to need salt for ice and snow in the Christmas period - not slugs.

 

[Mair Snaw]

22 minutes ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Mid teens widely across England by next Thursday if the GFS is  correct.

16/17C in favoured spots I reckon if it came off.

But......

UKMO

The UKMO holds the tropospheric vortex on the Siberian side with weak heights over southern Greenland which drives the jet further south meaning wetter conditions more widely compared to the GFS. Also of course not as mild though temperatures would still likely be balancing out above normal at this point.

I think if the ECM follows the UKMO in its 12z output we should not pay to much attention to the GFS... of course it could be right but we have been here before with the Euro's v the GFS and i would go with the Euro's not long to wait now...

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

I was hoping to need salt for ice and snow in the Christmas period - not slugs.

 

 

The thing that I notice is that even there, the tropospheric vortex does not look overly powerful. As with 99% of the time, we're in the worst place possible for anything wintry (on that chart).

 

Russia cold, N America cold....hardly a strongly +AO

 

 

Getting toasty in the strat though?

Edited December 11, 2015 by CreweCold

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

14 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why would it be wrong? The upper air pattern GFS predicts seems to support what it is doing. Of course that may be wrong but it fits the 12z output but how consistent is that with the 12z yesterday or say the ECMWF at the same period? I ask because I have not yet had time to do a comparison.

 

Evening John - you might like to read my post here:

https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/84555-model-output-discussion-1st-december-onwards/?do=findComment&comment=3300192

 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 

The thing that I notice is that even there, the tropospheric vortex does not look overly powerful. As with 99% of the time, we're in the worst place possible for anything wintry (on that chart).

 

Yeah I'm just having a bit of fun. Black humour if you will.

I do think our only chance of anything white during Christmas period will be catching some transient PM air though - at least unless there are big changes in the output.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

 

Yeah I'm just having a bit of fun. Black humour if you will.

I do think our only chance of anything white during Christmas period will be catching some transient PM air though - at least unless there are big changes in the output.

However, possibly the strongest sign of impending warming strat yet???

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by CreweCold

[Summer Sun]

Quite a change from UKMO at t144 in the space of 12 hours and for the areas already hit by flooding the change isn't good

00z

12z

[Mucka]

12 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

I think if the ECM follows the UKMO in its 12z output we should not pay to much attention to the GFS... of course it could be right but we have been here before with the Euro's v the GFS and i would go with the Euro's not long to wait now...

 

UKMO has been dreadful at day 5/6 for some time in my view, not sure if the verification stats for the last week or two show that though.

If you look at today's GFS12z it is almost identical to yesterdays ECM 12z 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by Mucka

[johnholmes]

4 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I don't know if this is of any use, but I'm just viewing a Youtube video by Simon Keeling from Weatherweb, and he reckons the GFS is worse than before the upgrade as it's dramatically-overplaying low heights in the Atlantic.  They are strongly favouring the ECM at present.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkDmsPq5gs8

 

thanks for the link I will watch it later. So I do not yet know if he is talking upper air or surface features. The link I give shows as it almost always does that ECMWF consistently outscores GFS at days 5 and 6, and also out at day 10. Mind you neither is reliable at that time frame judging from the statistics I watched from Gibby over the 10 months January to October. This is why, however much some folk disagree, I use the anomaly charts after day 6 to give a more reliable idea of what the upper air pattern is likely to be. They do need careful use mind you.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO has been dreadful at day 5/6 for some time in my view, not sure if the verification stats for the last week or two show that though.

If you look at today's GFS12z it is almost identical to yesterdays ECM 12z 

 

Yes i see your point there Mucka.... was just thinking back a few winter when the models were all over the place and our friend Shannon Entropy was about the Euro's performed well together when the GFS was all over the place from one run to the next.... could it be the case again??

[johnholmes]

23 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Well if you run through it is basically the same low pressure from 78hrs all the way through to 225hrs (the latest I can see), it just comes up from the south to the north then just meanders around for days.

 

Edit:and still the same low almost non moving at 240hrs

Not got time to look carefully at the whole set of GFS charts but I assume the upper air pattern is the governing factor so presumably that has little flow in it?

[Summer Sun]

12 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO has been dreadful at day 5/6 for some time in my view, not sure if the verification stats for the last week or two show that though.

If you look at today's GFS12z it is almost identical to yesterdays ECM 12z 

 

 ECM maintains its lead over UKMO

At 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.5 pts also.  

At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts.

At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts then GFS at 86.6 pts.

At 8 Days ECM still leads at 65.1 pts over GFS's 61.9 pts.

At Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 49.6 pts to 44.8 pts.  

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by Polar Maritime
To apply correct links to data.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

thanks for the link I will watch it later. So I do not yet know if he is talking upper air or surface features. The link I give shows as it almost always does that ECMWF consistently outscores GFS at days 5 and 6, and also out at day 10. Mind you neither is reliable at that time frame judging from the statistics I watched from Gibby over the 10 months January to October. This is why, however much some folk disagree, I use the anomaly charts after day 6 to give a more reliable idea of what the upper air pattern is likely to be. They do need careful use mind you.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html

He calls them "7 to 10 day mean anomalies" and compares the GFS and ECMWF, but he doesn't specify if they are upper charts or not.  He appears to suggest that they are discounting GFS at present as they think it is systematically overstating Atlantic troughing.

[Yarmy]

5 minutes ago, Mucka said:

UKMO has been dreadful at day 5/6 for some time in my view, not sure if the verification stats for the last week or two show that though.

If you look at today's GFS12z it is almost identical to yesterdays ECM 12z 

 

 

It's pretty good, to be honest: just a smidgen below the Euro and well ahead of the GFS (which is lagging even its experimental brother).

I think these stats only take the 0z runs into account though.

 

 

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

Yes i see your point there Mucka.... was just thinking back a few winter when the models were all over the place and our friend Shannon Entropy was about the Euro's performed well together when the GFS was all over the place from one run to the next.... could it be the case again??

 

Yes GFS was quite poor but UKMO wasn't great either as I remember, it was constantly over amplifying the upstream pattern and too slow.

If tonigh'ts ECM comes down in favour of UKMO then I would agree with you, that would be the most likely outcome, but I think it will look more like GFS.

At the moment I can't even find the straws to grasp but I know I have a plentiful supply somewhere.

 

EDIT

 

Thanks for the model verification stats guys. 

I don't feel it is just my perception that UKMO has been poor 144 but those stats suggest it is.

Maybe it is the way the stats are correlated, taking in the overall NH longwave pattern or something, rather  than the UK?

Edited December 11, 2015 by Mucka

[Mair Snaw]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

Yes GFS was quite poor but UKMO wasn't great either as I remember, it was constantly over amplifying the upstream pattern and too slow.

If tonigh'ts ECM comes down in favour of UKMO then I would agree with you, that would be the most likely outcome, but I think it will look more like GFS.

At the moment I can't even find the straws to grasp but I know I have a plentiful supply somewhere.

Mine are in the same cupboard as the Prozac.... im trying my best to go to the cupboard but its getting harder each day.... we wait with baited breath for the ECM...

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 ECM maintains its lead over UKMO

At 24 hours ECM ahead at 99.6 pts with UKMO at 99.5 pts and GFS at 99.5 pts also.  

At 3 days ECM is leading with 97.6 pts to UKMO's 97.2 pts while GFS lags behind at 96.7 pts.

At 5 days ECM leads with 89.6 pts to UKMO at 88.8 pts then GFS at 86.6 pts.

At 8 Days ECM still leads at 65.1 pts over GFS's 61.9 pts.

At Day 10 ECM leads GFS at 49.6 pts to 44.8 pts.  

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day1_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day3_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png

 

 

As I thought: after 10 days, all of the models are wrong more than half the time...So, logically, past 10 days, it's better to refer to the anomalies?

[gottolovethisweather]

15 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

He calls them "7 to 10 day mean anomalies" and compares the GFS and ECMWF, but he doesn't specify if they are upper charts or not.  He appears to suggest that they are discounting GFS at present as they think it is systematically overstating Atlantic troughing.

 

For Chris or anyone else viewing this, the above is a prime example of when a direct mail/personal mail is more suitable, as this is the MODEL OUTPUT DISCUSSION thread, please take note all. I've gone close to the wire myself today so I'm no saint either, I know.

 

Eyes down then for the most reliable model outputs and its ensembles, just what will it dish up tonight for us in the UK and our continental friends, we will find out soon enough.

Edited December 11, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Cheese Rice]

42 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Why would it be wrong? The upper air pattern GFS predicts seems to support what it is doing. Of course that may be wrong but it fits the 12z output but how consistent is that with the 12z yesterday or say the ECMWF at the same period? I ask because I have not yet had time to do a comparison.

 

The GFS has been very consistent with its mild southerly feed (could it be referred to as a plume?) for the 17th.

[nick sussex]

There used to be statistics for different parts of the NH. Its a shame we don't have these anymore because then we could just concentrate on Europe. Generally I've found that if the UKMO progs the coldest solution at T144hrs it will be rarely picked up by the others. Of course it doesn't suffer from the criticism that the GFS and ECM get because it stops at T144hrs.

It would be interesting to see what the UKMO would deliver if it went to T240hrs like the ECM.

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The GFS has been very consistent with its mild southerly feed (could it be referred to as a plume?) for the 17th.

Well........................yes

Charts weatherbell

 

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There used to be statistics for different parts of the NH. Its a shame we don't have these anymore because then we could just concentrate on Europe. Generally I've found that if the UKMO progs the coldest solution at T144hrs it will be rarely picked up by the others. Of course it doesn't suffer from the criticism that the GFS and ECM get because it stops at T144hrs.

It would be interesting to see what the UKMO would deliver if it went to T240hrs like the ECM.

 

Yes that would be interesting nick.

I'm sure i read somewhere that the UKMO goes out to 192h behind closed doors but maybe somebody can let us know if that is fact or fiction?

[IDO]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There used to be statistics for different parts of the NH. Its a shame we don't have these anymore because then we could just concentrate on Europe. Generally I've found that if the UKMO progs the coldest solution at T144hrs it will be rarely picked up by the others. Of course it doesn't suffer from the criticism that the GFS and ECM get because it stops at T144hrs.

It would be interesting to see what the UKMO would deliver if it went to T240hrs like the ECM.

The UKMO has been terrible at D6 for weeks as it over does low height anomalies over the UK. Ignore it when it does until there is support. Its bias is clear and strange (10 day bias):

  GFS Mean:  OP also at D6: 

The GEFS Mean is similar to the op so very good support and the GEM is also closer to GFS.