Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[A.J]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

Just popping into the woodshed to make sure the barbe's in fine fettle

 

this is the chaos that happens when Knocker is let loose with a blank map of europe and a pack of colouring pens....lol

from a personal perspective, I sincerely hope this GEFS ensemble temp anomaly chart doesn't verify!

[Ravelin]

7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

this is the chaos that happens when Knocker is let loose with a blank map of europe and a pack of colouring pens....lol

Does that mean all we need to do to get cold is take Knocker's red pens off him?

Anyway, GFS 6Z, slightly more robust high to our North at t138?

Compared to 12z at the same time

[knocker]

To revert to some more refined colouring a quick shufty at this morning's ecm anomalies. At T240 a familiar upper pattern so a continuation of periods of wintry weather mainly concentrated to the north of the UK but not exclusively. Temps swinging around the average, If you shift the pattern just a tad east it will give you the analysis for T360 so no significant change.

 

[nick sussex]

After viewing the GFS 00hrs run I thought this might be supporting last nights ECM 12hrs run which cleared the low east and didn't phase this. Then I had the misfortune to view the ECM 00hrs which has flipped completely including its ensembles.

The difference in the ensembles is quite stark this morning and it shows how finely balanced this phasing issue is, I think at the moment given the ECM/UKMO and now GFS 06hrs runs trending to the Euros its unfortunately looking bleak.

Frustratingly you do get the negatively tilted Atlantic troughing and you can see this wants to build pressure to the north on the GFS 06hrs run but this attaches itself to that shortwave energy to the sw which without the clearance of shortwave energy to the low near the se pushes the energy over the top.

In these situations there isn't really a middle ground solution because you will either get the undercut or not, its for this reason that you see these big switches in especially the ECM ensembles.

Theres a slim hope because of the complexities of this pattern that there might be one last twist but the odds currently favour the phasing which in turn leads to some extremely mild conditions. For the European ski resorts its a disaster with Christmas coming up.

 

Edited December 10, 2015 by nick sussex

[cheshire snow]

Looks like a Northerly by day 10 on this run

C.S

Yes indeed a N to NW flow in FI

Edited December 10, 2015 by cheshire snow

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Oh darn that's close.  500 miles east and the pattern I've sought for that period on my LRF would be in place.   I'm not too down beat yet because there is still some resolving to do as Nick S says...but the ECM is awful this morning for cold and the struggle is uphill.  The 06z runs on to be a  an overall nice run upto Xmas.  Onwards and upwards as they say

 

BFTP

 

[chris55]

GFS 06z's little high to the north caught my eye this morning at 132, a true high with some warmer air at 500hpa

 

 

If this could grab a foothold so to speak we could be in business lol! Not much consensus though.

 

00Z ens do show a few colder stragglers back in the mix in the mid term though.

 

 

[johnholmes]

I love this from our professionals for 2 days ahead and you lot are worryning about the run up to Christmas!

This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review.

They are talking of the track the low MAY take Saturday

this link shows where their current thinking is

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72

sure is an interesting time for model watching in the nearer time frames.

One can only hope it stays south of mid Lancashire, several thousand folk will feel the same. It is hard to comprehend the awful situation so many of them will be in for many months to come.

Looking at the 06Z GFS and they take it well north over the area that least needs it, so hopefully the idea from UK Met for further south turns out to be correct. Even by this time tomorrow I suspect there will still be uncertainty.

Edited December 10, 2015 by johnholmes

[cheshire snow]

^^^

I understand what you are saying John 

and I think we all feel the same about the folk up in Cumbria very hard and sad times for them,but this is the model thread and surely folk can discuss the weekend events or FI charts if they so wish,anyway straying of topic so will end this here

C.S

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I love this from our professionals for 2 days ahead and you lot are worryning about the run up to Christmas!

This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review.

They are talking of the track the low MAY take Saturday

this link shows where their current thinking is

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72

sure is an interesting time for model watching in the nearer time frames.

One can only hope it stays south of mid Lancashire, several thousand folk will feel the same. It is hard to comprehend the awful situation so many of them will be in for many months to come.

Looking at the 06Z GFS and they take it well north over the area that least needs it, so hopefully the idea from UK Met for further south turns out to be correct. Even by this time tomorrow I suspect there will still be uncertainty.

Yes I was just looking at that John

Edited December 10, 2015 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Yes given the already horrendous flooding over the past few days, It sure isn't looking great again for them in Cumbria. That aside there does seem scope for snow possibility's over the spine of the county. As John says an interesting weekend coming up one way or another. I see the 6z continues into the run with some colder evolutions..

 

Edited December 10, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

39 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

^^^

I understand what you are saying John 

and I think we all feel the same about the folk up in Cumbria very hard and sad times for them,but this is the model thread and surely folk can discuss the weekend events or FI charts if they so wish,anyway straying of topic so will end this here

C.S

?? I never suggested otherwise and most of my post was discussing meteorology about the weekend?

[Frosty.]

Hopefully it won't be a mild mushy run up to christmas, the Gfs 6z at least shows arctic air trying to dig south and who knows, maybe we will have a colder spell before christmas because with all the relatively short term complications, the medium and longer range is also uncertain and it's still autumn, the Astronomical winter begins on 21st December until 20th March 2016!

Edited December 10, 2015 by Frosty.

[cheshire snow]

Just now, johnholmes said:

?? I never suggested otherwise and most of my post was discussing meteorology about the weekend?

I was referring to your first sentence but

no worries I have the up most respect for you,and hope you did not take my

post in the wrong way

C.S

 

 

 

[Troubleatmill]

53 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes given the already horrendous flooding over the past few days, It sure isn't looking great again for them in Cumbria. That aside there does seem scope for snow possibility's over the spine of the county. As John says an interesting weekend coming up one way or another. I see the 6z continues into the run with some colder evolutions..

 

Yes quite a bit of snow in Cumbria this weekend, falling at a fairly modest altitude: 

LD-MWI-WM10672_2015-12-10_071844_2330000.pdf

[carinthian]

On ‎08‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 9:07 AM, carinthian said:

Good Morning, a colder end to this week for most of British Isles. The model charts for Sunday are showing some uncertainty. The warm front looks like making limited progress NE wards this time with perhaps Northern UK holding on to colder air mass for a bit longer. Perhaps snowfall may come into the forecast later into next weekend, especially further north and east with height. Whether this is transitional will be determined how quickly the colder air ahead of the front is over ridden. The timing and speed of movement of this front is now open to some debate and we await further updates as the upper air push is now weakening from this direction.

 C

A bit of an update on the above post made earlier this week. Looks like there will be transient snow on the higher ground. Maybe not as further North and East as earlier indicated. The twarm front will disintegrate in central areas and hopefully the main rain /snow event will evade Cumbria. Again, the Met Office will monitor closely by the hour the more at risk far NW of England. Looks like also being a very cold night on Friday across much of Scotland and the far north of England. Could be close to a 20C differential in temps between the South coast of England and Northern Glens of Scotland on Saturday morning . A least a good weekend for weather watching in the shorter term across the British Isles. Just much the same over here, sunny days and frosty nights under Euro High.

 C

Edited December 10, 2015 by carinthian

[snow freak]

1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

?? I never suggested otherwise and most of my post was discussing meteorology about the weekend?

 

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

I love this from our professionals for 2 days ahead and you lot are worryning about the run up to Christmas!

This development is associated with a high degree of uncertainty, especially regarding the track and timing of the depression, and this alert will be kept under review.

They are talking of the track the low MAY take Saturday

this link shows where their current thinking is

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72

sure is an interesting time for model watching in the nearer time frames.

One can only hope it stays south of mid Lancashire, several thousand folk will feel the same. It is hard to comprehend the awful situation so many of them will be in for many months to come.

Looking at the 06Z GFS and they take it well north over the area that least needs it, so hopefully the idea from UK Met for further south turns out to be correct. Even by this time tomorrow I suspect there will still be uncertainty.

I do feel for those people who are suffering from the torrential rainfall and flooding in those areas, especially Cumbria, but at the same time they do live in these areas which are renowned for extremely high rainfall so it really shouldn't come as too much of a shock when these things happen...as terrible as they are.

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, cheshire snow said:

I was referring to your first sentence but

no worries I have the up most respect for you,and hope you did not take my

post in the wrong way

C.S

 

 

 

I understood what you meant C.S 

Whilst its horrible circumstances in Cumbria, why should we ignore/worry about what the latest model output is showing running up to Christmas. This is the model output discussion after-all whether its FI or not.

The models are now firming up in the shorter term for some snow over Northern England especially hills, whilst this is more interesting to folk up north in the nearer term, Im more focused on what the models are to churn out in the latter, as a bit of Snow in Northern England has no interest to me what so ever, so I am all for members discussing the model output outside the reliable time-frame especially with this horrific mild weather my location has suffered for weeks.

 

Lets hope the 12z keeps that surge of arctic air over the festive period. Although with no credible support elsewhere I wont hold my breath

[Nouska]

Extended ECM ensemble mean now just reaching the big day - something seasonal for Scotland and all the parts of the UK (we can see) under sub zero uppers. I would say this lends a bit of support to some of the charts we have been seeing on the GFS.

  

[Liam J]

44 minutes ago, snow freak said:

 

I do feel for those people who are suffering from the torrential rainfall and flooding in those areas, especially Cumbria, but at the same time they do live in these areas which are renowned for extremely high rainfall so it really shouldn't come as too much of a shock when these things happen...as terrible as they are.

Shouldn't be too much of a shock? Yeah it's quite normal to receive more than double the usual rainfall totals for the whole month of December in 24-48hrs (16 inches)... There's people lived here for many many years who haven't seen anything like it before, but worryingly it seems to be happening more frequently over the last 10 years, 2005, 2009 and now 2015. 

Thankfully the predicted rainfall totals have been coming down over the last few runs compared to a few days ago, but it'll not take all that much to cause more flooding issues with such saturated ground and high river levels, Western Ireland looking very wet Saturday to Sunday on current predictions... Still a lot of uncertainty even at this close range so I certainly wouldn't be getting excited or disheartened yet at the longer term prospects, I don't care how cold or how mild it is I just want things to dry out as more rainfall will just add to the misery for many!  

Edited December 10, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[Mucka]

ECM ensembles very grim this morning, probably as bad as it gets. The split for a couple of cold days has disappeared and they are very firmly in the mild camp.

 

 

If there is any light at the end of the tunnel then it is that GFS 06z is consistent with the 00z in regard to overall pattern in FI, it is just a little further North. At least a deep trough would give us a shot of cold, though likely not long lived, from the North around the Christmas period.

ECM also salts the Euro slug somewhat in FI.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Mucka

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 hours ago, knocker said:

5 hours ago, ajpoolshark said:

this is the chaos that happens when Knocker is let loose with a blank map of europe and a pack of colouring pens....lol

from a personal perspective, I sincerely hope this GEFS ensemble temp anomaly chart doesn't verify!

Just popping into the woodshed to make sure the barbe's in fine fettle

 

Who'd want Christmas dinner in those sort of temperatures anyway?  Seriously, for someone in my position whose interpretation skills aren't up to much, I presume that's showing +4-5C to the average temperature, therefore around 12-13C?

Edited December 10, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Gavin Hannah]

6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Who'd want Christmas dinner in those sot of temperatures anyway?  Seriously, for someone in my position whose interpretation skills aren't up to much, I presume that's showing +4-5C to the average temperature?

That chart belongs in one place only IMO.... The Bin!

[simshady]

Hopefully that 'barbie' will stay in the woodshed  for a long time yet

[bradymk]

You can see what difference a more southerly track of Saturday's low does.

GFS 

     

Arpege

  

We shall see what euro4 shows

 

Also, if anyone has a weatherbell premium subscription, there is now a new ECMWF Parallel model which was released yesterday. They're running the parallel model until it goes live in March. The resolution has improved quite a bit!

Here is an example

  

Edited December 10, 2015 by bradythemole