Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[snowangel32]

Gfs is definitely in the Christmas spirit with the 00z and is consistently showing a cold snap around the Christmas period, on this run it shows snow chances for even Somerset lol. If we can get a white Christmas out of this current weather setup it would be a miracle lol. 

 

 

[Liam J]

ECM had a go at something different with a ridge in the Atlantic towards Greenland, a lot different from previous runs anyway, then a decent cold shot into Europe just missing the UK, maybe been on the mulled wine! But sobers up as Christmas approaches with a flow from North Africa.... 

[knocker]

Massive difference between the gfs and ecm around days 9 and 10.

 

[Captain Shortwave]

A slight shock for me this morning but we do actually have some variety in the outputs in the 7-10 day range.

The GEM is pretty much bang on previous outputs/anomalies and throws a nasty storm for day 9

This would bring severe gales to southern areas along with some heavy rain.

The GFS has a similar idea, but has a shallower feature which tracks further south.

Heavy rain across southern counties with the risk of back edge snow across the Midlands perhaps with polar maritime air entrenched across the Midlands northwards at this point.

The ECM builds high pressure in

I must admit to being dubious about the ECM operational, especially how it handles the low to our west around day 5-7 which develops a significant cut off feature west of Iberia. I suspect the GEM/GFS solutions will be closer to the mark for now, especially with the GEFS pointing that way.

 

The GEFs are still building a significant area of heights over Scandinavia between Christmas and New Year (An extension of the Euro high) so any zonal weather might be short lived in duration to the few days before Christmas.

So a brief more unsettled spell for all areas before southern and eastern areas in particular see drier weather returning.

Edited December 13, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[IDO]

I nearly choked on my cornflakes when I saw the ECM this morning. Very mild uppers all the way to D10 and probably into the Christmas period:

D10: 

Obiously it is a D10 chart from ECM so just for fun (known issues over amplifying), but they may have spotted something. Anyway no support from GEM or GFS yet:

   

They are very similar at D10. As for any trends in the GEFS it is apparent that the Azores/euro High is coming back into the equation again after we see that burst of lower heights around D10. The mean suggests these two rebuild back north around D12 and by D13 the south is again back under their influence:

Mean at D16:  Christmas Day: 

This does mean that the mean is downgrading Christmas Day for a PM shot and now shows average to above uppers in the SW to NE split ^^^. I have noticed the latest CFS w3-w4 are now moving in that direction so maybe the milder than average weather is going to return but obviously not as rampant as next week (UKMO still calling mild early Jan):

   Stunning temps for mid Dec>>>   

What are the odds that when ECM amplify for milder weather it verifies but rarely does when the cold is forecast from amplifying?

 

 

Edited December 13, 2015 by IDO

[tinybill]

On 12/11/2015 at 8:45 PM, ANYWEATHER said:

if  the gfs  is  rightScrolling through the model output from ecm and gfs  its a case of "as you are" or" De Je Vu".  Yes pockets of colder air at times  even to southern England ,but snow mainly confined to the mountains of Scotland.  Christmas Day from the 12z gfs shows  an example of what I mean a "pocket" and fleeting shot of cold air, Perhaps Stormy  at times across the nation with flooding problems in some places too, Sorry to tell the truth and not make up the outlook with loads of lipstick glossed on  it , but real Winter for most at the moment is a Christmas Dream...

morning  all if  the gfs  is  right  get down to the bookies  for the big  day  xmas  could  be interesting!!!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 00z op shows the jet heading south in time for christmas week with a more wintry flavour to the uk weather with sleet and snow around, especially on hills and night frosts becoming widespread at times with icy patches. In the meantime it will become progressively milder from the southwest with rain at times and occasionally strong to gale force sw'ly / s'ly winds but tuesday looks largely fine across most of uk and i'm hoping that christmas week will bring a much more seasonal spell with some parts of the uk seeing snow, coldies across most of england and wales deserve a colder shot for goodness sake!!

[Man With Beard]

The ECM is an astonishing run for France. I'd have thought next Sunday could get near 25C in the Bordeaux area based on this:

One GEFS member gets the "plume" all the way to London:

though having said that, another ensemble member does this by the 28th

[IDO]

ECM D10 mean as expected flat as the GFS and GEM: 

So ignoring the ECM OP at D9-10, which is always advisable, no change this morning from the very consistent output of the GEFS and this is backed up by verification stats showing over the last 6 days the GFS mean averaging .75. Very little Shannon Entropy in the models (excluding ECM OP usual bias) so the next 10 days (at least) looks locked in.

[Ali1977]

If anyone fancies seeing the evolution of some more festive charts play P7 or P20 through to FI....they are both quite similar in producing a beast in time for Xmas, although pretty sure it won't happen!!

[blizzard81]

19 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM D10 mean as expected flat as the GFS and GEM: 

So ignoring the ECM OP at D9-10, which is always advisable, no change this morning from the very consistent output of the GEFS and this is backed up by verification stats showing over the last 6 days the GFS mean averaging .75. Very little Shannon Entropy in the models (excluding ECM OP usual bias) so the next 10 days (at least) looks locked in.

However, it looks like the ecm control run follows the ecm op this morning. I have a feeling the ecm has spotted a new trend this morning, especially as the differences are within the 7 - 8 day range. I could be wrong of course.

[snowangel32]

11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

If anyone fancies seeing the evolution of some more festive charts play P7 or P20 through to FI....they are both quite similar in producing a beast in time for Xmas, although pretty sure it won't happen!!

Yh they are a treat to look at, but until I see cross model consensus can't get to excited even though it's tempting to put a cheeky tenner on a White Xmas. Massive diffrences between Ecm and Gfs. How long before we see the verification stats on both lol. So we have a Xmas face off, who will be the winner. 

[mb018538]

You'd have to favour the other outcomes really, I can't see this whopping high forming with the jet as it is.

Seville is forecast to reach the low-mid twenties this week! Crazy times.

[bluearmy]

44 minutes ago, IDO said:

ECM D10 mean as expected flat as the GFS and GEM: 

So ignoring the ECM OP at D9-10, which is always advisable, no change this morning from the very consistent output of the GEFS and this is backed up by verification stats showing over the last 6 days the GFS mean averaging .75. Very little Shannon Entropy in the models (excluding ECM OP usual bias) so the next 10 days (at least) looks locked in.

 

Not sure the spread at day 10 says this is quite so straightforward IDO

 

[Liam J]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

However, it looks like the ecm control run follows the ecm op this morning. I have a feeling the ecm has spotted a new trend this morning, especially as the differences are within the 7 - 8 day range. I could be wrong of course.

I kinda hope not as it could dash hopes of a white Christmas looking at the day 10 chart... The 00z was quite different to previous output which has been very consistent, suppose even the ECM isn't immune from the odd blip now and again.... But it is the best performing model as stats show time and time again so cannot be completely discounted but no model really performs well at that range, lets see what the 12z's come up with... 

 

 

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM is an astonishing run for France. I'd have thought next Sunday could get near 25C in the Bordeaux area based on this:

We're already being progged 17/18c here in Limousin for the end of next week.

 

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

I kinda hope not as it could dash hopes of a white Christmas looking at the day 10 chart... The 00z was quite different to previous output which has been very consistent, suppose even the ECM isn't immune from the odd blip now and again.... But it is the best performing model as stats show time and time again so cannot be completely discounted but no model really performs well at that range, lets see what the 12z's come up with... 

 

 

Yes but it may be a case of short term pain for long term gain. A milder xmas but more favourable going forwards towards Jan. I would find it easier to discount the ecm op if the control hadn't followed it. As ever, time will tell

[IDO]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Not sure the spread at day 10 says this is quite so straightforward IDO

 

There is statistical significance to the ECM op at D10, in fact it is so much of an outlier that it is clear the ECM op has some problems within it's model at that range:

As a statistician you would have to ignore that op run, but of course weather is a law to itself, so you never know (though I wouldn't get the BBQ out just yet).

 I suspect the spread is more to do with timing of mini ridge/trough combos within the ensembles and/or the latitude of the jet. 

[gottolovethisweather]

Well maybe, just maybe, the twelve Drummers have just started Drumming up some Christmas Cheer, given the more optimistic charts by D12 over recent runs.

 

In reality though, I wouldn't even attempt to contemplate the surface conditions by then. Anything is possible obviously, not least we could see any of the following options judging by current outputs by Christmas Day itself.

• Atlantic in full zonal mode (albeit with the Jet trending South) - 60% probability 
• A more benign settled pattern with potential for Frosts even down in the tropical Southern parts of the UK - 30% probability
• A Northerly influenced airstream/somewhat reverse zonal surface pattern with associated wintriness - 10% probability

Rather a simplistic overview I know, but at this rate, I'd say the chances of Southern UK being dry with cold/near average Temps on the big day are 40% probability with a wet, mild and windy setup at 60% probability. 

Further North including Ireland and Scotland chances of them being dry with cold/near average Temps on the big day are 30% probability, wet, mild and windy 30% probability yet I'd suggest a snowy scene a 40% probability right now.

 

Happy Christmas but before then note two days in your mind as these look intriguing in terms of their synoptics, the 18th December (noteworthy for its role as the peak in the warmth) and the 22nd December (for short term wintry opportunities). Hopefully that Partridge in my Pear Tree will stay out of hibernation and go back to its rightful place just in time for Christmas as by then, the weather will have surely changed for the better for those of a cold-loving and seasonal weather disposition.

 

Edited December 13, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Geordiesnow]

Slight change in the output is that the models are producing a shallow area of low pressure within in the mild flow for Wednesday which will no doubt enhance any rainfall, It also delays the real milder air for Northern areas to an extent. 

That said, Wednesday and Thursday does look like the peak of the mildness before a brief cool down for Friday before turning milder again for Saturday but potentially wetter yet again. 

I got to say, Im a bit confused why the BBC forecasts is going for "not as wet" title in their summeries, too me, this week could actually potentially be quite wet for some and for some region, wetter than recent times so its a bit of optimistic statement to make I feel. 

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, IDO said:

There is statistical significance to the ECM op at D10, in fact it is so much of an outlier that it is clear the ECM op has some problems within it's model at that range:

As a statistician you would have to ignore that op run, but of course weather is a law to itself, so you never know (though I wouldn't get the BBQ out just yet).

 I suspect the spread is more to do with timing of mini ridge/trough combos within the ensembles and/or the latitude of the jet. 

I never discuss op runs after day 8 IDO - they only exist to keep Paul's advertising revenue up! 

the ecm spreads have been similar for a few days now and reflect the desire of the PFJ to get further south than we've seen it. Hence my post on Wednesday re potential wild weather between 20/23rd. Thereafter, the extended eps mean lifts heights to our se and the jet responds by heading ne

that could be more a return to average rather than a strong likelihood though. 

[carinthian]

On ‎10‎/‎12‎/‎2015 at 11:09 AM, nick sussex said:

Yes its desperate at the moment, the issue is even if there was some change in the outputs it might not come in time. The irony here in the Pyrenees is the skiing season started earlier than usual at the end of November in Cauterets with that colder snowier week. But since then its been wall to wall sunshine. Apparently using snow cannons is very expensive and of course if it gets too mild you can't use them. At this stage Carinthian we need to start praying for a miracle!

Crazy warm chart from ECM this morning. Would result in the warmest Christmas Eve ever in France and the British Isles.  The miracle could come in the form of the latest GFS that blasts away Euro high with a pre Christmas storm across the Low countries. Hope this is the right model but not over expectant. UKMO looks like more of the same ?

 C

[gottolovethisweather]

8 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Slight change in the output is that the models are producing a shallow area of low pressure within in the mild flow for Wednesday which will no doubt enhance any rainfall, It also delays the real milder air for Northern areas to an extent. 

That said, Wednesday and Thursday does look like the peak of the mildness before a brief cool down for Friday before turning milder again for Saturday but potentially wetter yet again. 

I got to say, Im a bit confused why the BBC forecasts is going for "not as wet" title in their summeries, too me, this week could actually potentially be quite wet for some and for some region, wetter than recent times so its a bit of optimistic statement to make I feel. 

I was thinking the exact same thing, surely the moisture levels are going to very high indeed given Temps some ten to fifteen degrees over parts of Western Europe this coming week. It could just be that it is Southern England's turn for something of a deluge, who knows, again I hope I'm wrong but I feel the weather headlines will be all about us and those large European continent Temperature contrasts this week. 

Edited December 13, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

I have placed an order for P20 GEFS 00z between christmas and new year 

[Cloud 10]

11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I have placed an order for P20 GEFS 00z between christmas and new year 

 

Lucky 7 not looking to bad either.

 

New trend prhaps........