Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Stormyking]

Another very poor Morning of runs from the GFS and ECM for Coldies, there isn't hiding away from it at all right now, again though it is still very Early Winter, so plenty of oppurtunities cant be ruled out through.

These temperatures for Thursday though look pretty crazy for the time of year, still interested to see whether the record will be broken

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z op run shows polar maritime incursions through christmas week which would be a small victory in itself so some of us would see sleet and wet snow at times but more especially for upland northern areas but with some night frosts and icy patches as the jet edges south, at least for a time...So, next week would feel more seasonal, even across the south.

[Nouska]

The amplified MJO and the very positive SST anomalies, basin wide in Indian Ocean, may be playing an enhancing role in the weather patterns for Europe. A double whammy, if you like, with the El Nino and IOBW doing a double warming up act.

Winter composite ... 

January precip ..... 

....as if you hadn't seen enough - something drastic needed to change this around!

[mountain shadow]

5 hours ago, AdrianHull said:

 

I never look beyond the two week time frame . You could be right or wrong who knows. But I wont be wasting my time looking beyond the New Year ;-) 

Unfortunately I think you are behind the times if you don't look more than a fortnight ahead. 

With the vast improvement in seasonal forecasting we can now have a greater deal of certainty around projecting a month ahead at the very least.

 

[bluearmy]

The back end of the eps begin to lift the euro ridge further north to the extent that it's feasible for the se of England to begin to draw a continental drift.  A ridge to our East in tandem with troughing to our west strongly advertised on the mean.  assume that the vortex nw of Greenland coupled with the Nino background will ensure that the Atlantic trough stays close enough to be the main influence on the UK in general.  If we are to see proper winter this season then it looks to be a long old road to get there. I suspect that if it does arrive, it will be worth waiting for. 

[terrier]

Well we see a brief pm incursion on the gfs 6z so it would feel a lot more seasonal into xmas week. But looking further ahead from some of the models and longer range forecasts it seems along road to any substantial cold. And as we all now even with a ssw it doesn't guarantee us cold. 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

I remember working at Gatwick during the winter or 72/73. We had Euro High and mild feed all the way through December, January and only at the end of the first week of February saw a change of the locked pattern and some colder weather started to prevail. Those days synoptics charts were hand drawn from hourly observations and it became a pain drawing the same pattern ( ie dominant Euro High ), so it came a relief to see this shifted later in the winter. Very limited Model charts those days to indicate how long the mild winter was to prevail !

 C

Another instant comes to mind when a switch from mild to cold occurred very quickly in less than5 day. The winter of 1965/66 started mild and benign with a short cold snap over Xmas and Boxing Day followed by more mild conditions for New Year. By the 5th January a deep Atlantic Low became slow moving with an associated deep trough through the Azores. Pressure rose quickly across the British Isles from the SW and with-in 5 days a  linked Scandinavian high developed to produce a fairly prolonged cold spell  for the rest of the month especially across England Wales. I remember these charts well at School as the Geography teacher was a weather nut and gave a daily account of what was happening from the posted DWR charts supplied by the Met Office. He was the guy who got me interested in weather. What I am saying, whether all indications currently show mild outlook, sudden changes can and do happen .

 c

[Bobafet]

Not sure where to put this, but here seems a good place if not in the right place feel free to move MODS.

Read an interesting article on science magazine website where it says shoe box sized cubesats could reduce weather forecasting errors.  

http://scim.ag/1Ok5FXz

would also like to say thanks for input from everyone in this thread, it helps the less knowledgeable like myself to learn.  

Edited December 14, 2015 by bobafet
Poor gramma!

[Abyss]

24 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unfortunately I think you are behind the times if you don't look more than a fortnight ahead. 

With the vast improvement in seasonal forecasting we can now have a greater deal of certainty around projecting a month ahead at the very least.

 

No point checking the weather for at least a month then at the very least.  We already know what's going to happen 

Edited December 14, 2015 by -Bomber-

[johnholmes]

hi Paul re this

What I am saying, whether all indications currently show mild outlook, sudden changes can and do happen

That is much less likely now with various teleconnections showing the possible options. In the late 60's there were no computer models in weather forecasting. Seat of the pants stuff if you like, not even total use of facsimile machines so every office doing its own forecasting with guidance from the senior man at Dunstable in those days. We even had to plot Asxx and Fsxx charts on a chinograph board. For the forecaster that was keen there were other coded messages that it was possible to produce upper air charts for the next 24 hours but nothing further. Before the days of the charts for T=48 to 76 first came out. So beyond 24 hours was almost rocket science!

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by johnholmes

[gottolovethisweather]

45 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unfortunately I think you are behind the times if you don't look more than a fortnight ahead. 

With the vast improvement in seasonal forecasting we can now have a greater deal of certainty around projecting a month ahead at the very least.

 

Whilst I think I understand what you're saying we also cannot overstate our personal expectations based upon these seasonal forecasts, no one individual forecast will be correct in all its details. Additionally, when looking at shorter-term projections, each model's operational run diverges from another from t+0 hours and counting, whether you are considering charts at t+96, t+240 hours or whenever. As an example, take last week's frontal band for instance (Friday/Saturday) saw differing placements and/or intensities of precipitation to that previously forecast, only the evening before.

To my mind, this is precisely why those beloved models, be they seasonal or standard outputs, should be seen as simply tools or best guidance for us mere mortals. Beyond that, another skill is interpreting precisely and accurately what each NWP output is actually showing us, as in anything, things are always open to over-analysis and misunderstanding. With plenty of focus on Mother Nature within this threads in here today, I suggest she might be our guide as to what the end of December or beyond may bring us. Again, what will be, will be and things will change for better or worse before we've barely had time to contemplate it. I think there may well be a few surprises around this Winter, possibly from one extreme to the other. 

Enough of this near off-topic stuff from me and back to discussing said model outputs. 

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

hi Paul re this

What I am saying, whether all indications currently show mild outlook, sudden changes can and do happen

That is much less likely now with various teleconnections showing the possible options. In the late 60's there were no computer models in weather forecasting. Seat of the pants stuff if you like, not even total use of facsimile machines so every office doing its own forecasting with guidance from the senior man at Dunstable in those days. We even had to plot Asxx and Fsxx charts on a chinograph board. For the forecaster that was keen there were other coded messages that it was possible to produce upper air charts for the next 24 hours but nothing further. Before the days of the charts for T=48 to 76 first came out. So beyond 24 hours was almost rocket science!

 

Very much so John , showing your age ( before fax charts innovation ) but I am sure it was much more fun getting it right the old way. However, spotting a Scandinavian High development was nay impossible, even with the help of college guide briefs and always came as a surprise when it occurred..Even todays super computers have never got to gist with this now fairly rare atmospheric phenomena.

 C

[feb1991blizzard]

15 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

hi Paul re this

What I am saying, whether all indications currently show mild outlook, sudden changes can and do happen

That is much less likely now with various teleconnections showing the possible options. In the late 60's there were no computer models in weather forecasting. Seat of the pants stuff if you like, not even total use of facsimile machines so every office doing its own forecasting with guidance from the senior man at Dunstable in those days. We even had to plot Asxx and Fsxx charts on a chinograph board. For the forecaster that was keen there were other coded messages that it was possible to produce upper air charts for the next 24 hours but nothing further. Before the days of the charts for T=48 to 76 first came out. So beyond 24 hours was almost rocket science!

 

Tell us what it was like when you used to work at the Met Office in the 1920's then, it really must have been very basic then!

Edited December 14, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[Polar Maritime]

Ok back to Model 'output' discussion please. 

[johnholmes]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Tell us what it was like when you used to work at the Met Office in the 1920's then, it really must have been very basic then!

comic

even I am not 'quite' that old!

[johnholmes]

The latest MJO (GFS version) offers little scope for optimism either, see link below

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/foroper.shtml

with the 500mb prediction and surface T anomaly

http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

 

[Mucka]

Not surprised the white flag has been raised by even the most ardent of coldies, no matter how hard I look I can't find any cheer for December.

There is still the small chance of the big day itself seeing more seasonal temperatures with some PM air managing to get into the North of the country at least but it looks extremely unlikely that would be potent enough to get snow to low levels of England. There is an equal chance that Xmas could turn out very mild as well though.

 

If there is one ray of hope in the ensembles, it is that there is a signal for heights to build to our East toward the end of December. However this may also bring an extremely mild spell as we draw in a long fetch Southwesterly and nothing to say the jet wouldn't go over the top in the end anyway even if that signal is correct. 

It is about all I can offer as hope at the moment though and the fact that is two weeks out anyway, even for any developments, is symptomatic of the rather desperate situation Cold weather lovers are currently in.

I suppose, if we can't get any cold at all, then we may as well get extremely mild and hopefully things will begin to settle down and dry out toward end of December at least. Should any cold signal develop I will of course drop that sentiment for the pile of disingenuous bunk it really is. 

Edited December 14, 2015 by Mucka

[Liam J]

34 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Unfortunately I think you are behind the times if you don't look more than a fortnight ahead. 

With the vast improvement in seasonal forecasting we can now have a greater deal of certainty around projecting a month ahead at the very least.

 

Good luck with forecasting anything over a month and beyond into the future! NWP has improved greatly but I think at the very most we can only make reasonable assumptions out to 3 weeks at push on the overall pattern but there will always be some variations on that theme, much like we have seen recently with some very mild and at times very wet weather but also some brief cold shots with snow & frost in places. Trying to predict a whole season well good luck with that and hats off to those who try! Anyone writing off the rest of winter well that's just foolish!!  

If you've read Ed & Tony's detailed winter forecast then December is going quite as expected, and also he hasn't posted for a while but Ian F did give us an insight last month into the Met's predictions for December, and they were going for generally milder and unsettled weather as the most likely as well, which is what we are currently seeing for the majority of the UK, so I'm assuming their long range/seasonal models in operation are pretty good tools? Not sure what they are predicting for the rest of winter though, not sure I want to know either in case it's bad news.... But even within the current mild run of weather some have managed a good covering of snow here and there so it's not all bad. 

[Frosty.]

10 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Not surprised the white flag has been raised by even the most ardent of coldies

The white flag hasn't been raised, just an acceptance of the current situation but I and I'm sure many will keep checking the models every day looking for a pattern change to wintry weather.:-)

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, carinthian said:

Another instant comes to mind when a switch from mild to cold occurred very quickly in less than5 day. The winter of 1965/66 started mild and benign with a short cold snap over Xmas and Boxing Day followed by more mild conditions for New Year. By the 5th January a deep Atlantic Low became slow moving with an associated deep trough through the Azores. Pressure rose quickly across the British Isles from the SW and with-in 5 days a  linked Scandinavian high developed to produce a fairly prolonged cold spell  for the rest of the month especially across England Wales. I remember these charts well at School as the Geography teacher was a weather nut and gave a daily account of what was happening from the posted DWR charts supplied by the Met Office. He was the guy who got me interested in weather. What I am saying, whether all indications currently show mild outlook, sudden changes can and do happen .

 c

You are right to say that the weather can do unexpected turnarounds but there is usually some factor to precede this.

In the case of '73, a strong SSW in February of that year. '65 had a Canadian warming in December and '66 saw a February SSW also. Both winters were QBO east with strong El Nino - this winter, there are few mitigating circumstances to view as yet - hopes will lie far above our heads!

Links.  http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

            http://www.geo.fu-berlin.de/en/met/ag/strat/produkte/northpole/index.html

[mb018538]

We wish you a merry Christmas......and a balmy new year??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

No sign of anything cold with the jet firing up to turbo speed again straight into the UK: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17415.gif

Hoping for some improvements on the12z runs!

[Polar Maritime]

Some posts have been moved to the banter thread since my last request. Again can we please stick to discussion as to what the Model Outputs are showing please in here  

Thanks, PM

Edited December 14, 2015 by Polar Maritime

[Daniel*]

33 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

We wish you a merry Christmas......and a balmy new year??

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3841.gif

No sign of anything cold with the jet firing up to turbo speed again straight into the UK: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn17415.gif

Hoping for some improvements on the12z runs!

Well the SE is enveloped by a weak continental flow frosty conditions for my region at least it's seasonal meanwhilst foehn effect warmth to Highlands. 

[nick sussex]

3 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Worth noting that during November the ENSO signal got trumped by an unusual Indian Ocean convective signal, so it's not the dominant player that it could be.

Today's forecast and updates for the MJO awaited with a lot of interest, as current trend seems to be for coherence and eastward propagation, at least for upper level velocity potential and convective components. Both EC and CFS forecasts currently showing phase 6 progression for week 2. That in itself not particularly useful for shifting the wavelengths, but more significance in terms of raising levels of angular momentum and how that choreographs with the AO and degrees of amplification in the Northern Hemisphere.

Hi GP nice to see you posting again. Although NCEP haven't produced their new summary yet, the  models have updated. Theres a big divergence between the ECM, the ECM monthly and the GEFS bias corrected:

ECM:

ECM monthly:

GEFS BC:

 The GEFS seem reluctant to progress the signal with it hanging around phase 4.

PS Just to add for any newcomers to the thread, the MJO is strongest  the further away from that inner circle . If it goes into the circle its basically irrelevant in terms of any impacts on the NH pattern.

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by nick sussex

[legritter]

On 12/12/2015 at 10:27 AM, knocker said:

hoops sorry 

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by legritter