Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[knocker]

The GEFS 5-10 anomaly tonight has a nice vortex over the POle with associated tough western N. America, HP NE same and our trusted trough in the eastern Atlantic. So a continuation of very unsettled conditions with a threat of storms and strong winds and temps average or above. In the 11-16 not a huge difference although the LP over the Pole more diffuse and the Atlantic trough weakening a tad. This is actually quite marked on the individual T384 anomaly with ridging to the S/SE of the UK pushing NNE leading to more settled conditions over the UK. Temps still above average.

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by knocker

[nick sussex]

The ECM is pretty similar to the GFS although a touch more amplified especially in the east Pacific. The overall NH T240hrs set up is slightly less horrific than the previous 216hrs.

My horror rating after the ECM has fallen from 10/10 to 9/10.

 

[mb018538]

ECM 12z is one big mild-fest....not as unsettled as the GFS, and winds much more from a WSW quadrant keeping temps well above. John Hammond has mentioned there could be record breaking temps later this week, and the CET looks like being up at around 9.5c by the 20th still. Incredible, and providing no cold shots appear at the months end, this is going to be possibly the most record shattering month we've ever seen. Astounding.

[January Snowstorm]

Still all to play for on the big day itself.

A cold northwesterly with snow cannot be ruled out.

In the meantime the mild during this week is exceptional throughout much of Europe

[Ali1977]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

The GEFS 5-10 anomaly tonight has a nice vortex over the POle with associated tough western N. America, HP NE same and our trusted trough in the eastern Atlantic. So a continuation of very unsettled conditions with a threat of storms and strong winds and temps average or above. In the 11-16 not a huge difference although the LP over the Pole more diffuse and the Atlantic trough weakening a tad. This is actually quite marked on the individual T384 anomaly with ridging to the S/SE of the UK pushing NNE leading to more settled conditions over the UK. Temps still above average.

 

Interesting regards the 11-16, if anything it will just be nice to get some dry weather up North to assist all those flooded!! Still a fair vortex though looking at it!!

[Summer Sun]

Maybe something cooler for the 25th and or 26th if ECM plays ball

[peborant]

9 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

Truly some crazy temps around, none more so than New york this evening at 1.00 am BBC has 17c 

 

  

To be fair though they have had two cracking years in a row so they can well enjoy some above average temps like the rest of mortals for a change! Also nice to see the West side of the country faring better in snow terms - good news for good ol' Cali. 

Back to our side of the pond a truly horrendous look but in any luck  we might get a cool shot around Christmas...

[Geordiesnow]

Shame the GFS dropped its trend on trying to build a ridge of higher pressure between Scotland and Iceland for Friday as I felt if the Euros started showing something like this, we may of seen some sort of pattern shift earlier than people may expect. 

I'm not surprised that it has dropped it as it was the only model to show this but that said even though things do look very mild mild and the PV is quite strong we must not forget even at times like this, the outlook can and does change before we know it so all this talk of no nationwide cold spell until at least mid January is far fetched for me. 

In terms of breaking the daytime temperature records, 2 chances I feel for this, either on Thursday although it depends how quick the cold front comes through and on Saturday, again depends on how quick the cold front sweeps through. Anyone know what the December highest minimum temperature is?

[ANYWEATHER]

Hi , Apart from the very mild conditions  later this week where the usual suspects of North Wales and Northern Scotland will see challenging record mild temperatures , the festive period looks very volatile and interesting as some very cold air digs its way across the North Atlantic into the Uk, coutersey of a strong sinking jet stream, Long way off but if these charts prove correct some people will be waking up to a White Christmas.....

[knocker]

Looking at the ecm 6-10 and the ext out to T360 and NOAA anomalies there isn't a glimmer of any significant change to the outlook for the next 14 days. Wet and windy with possibilities of gales at times with temps slowly becoming nearer average.

EDIT

Forgot to note this from the discussion

Quote didn't work.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS, AND AMONG ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES, AS WELL AS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TOOLS.

 

Edited December 14, 2015 by knocker

[pyrotech]

GP & Nick sussex

I see a lot of talk about MJO into phase 7 for turn around but my understanding is that phase 8 during strong El nino would be more likely to bring rewards. Also a weak phase 7 or 8 would have little effect and we are looking at a strong signal for any meaningful changes.

I also see little change in strength of El Nino before March if not April.

happy to be corrected as always learning

[mulzy]

The ECM De Bilt ensembles are truly astonishing - no snowfall indication from any of the 50 runs.

http://projects.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.php?run=12

I don't mind mild weather in winter as long as it's bright - if we can't have snow then let's let have mildness and sunshine.

Edited December 14, 2015 by mulzy

[johnholmes]

well trying to reply and quote the 8-14 NOAA chart knocker put up, will only let me quote whole post!

anyway there is something of an oddity on the 8-14. Look at the +ve anomaly over easter US? Not sure what it showed last night but certainly Saturday had no such +ve anomaly. So not sure if it is genuine but it seems a huge switch if it is?

[nick sussex]

1 hour ago, pyrotech said:

GP & Nick sussex

I see a lot of talk about MJO into phase 7 for turn around but my understanding is that phase 8 during strong El nino would be more likely to bring rewards. Also a weak phase 7 or 8 would have little effect and we are looking at a strong signal for any meaningful changes.

I also see little change in strength of El Nino before March if not April.

happy to be corrected as always learning

The strong El Nino is expected to weaken but it will take time, we're not looking at neutral conditions until well into the year. In terms of the MJO theres still a lot of uncertainty because of the disagreements between the models. Something alluded to in tonights MJO NCEP update:

The MJO remained generally incoherent during the past week.

 
Some observational data in recent days, however, indicate that the MJO may be becoming more organized. These features remain influenced by the continued pattern of anomalous tropical convection consistent with El Nino.  

Some dynamical model forecasts of the MJO index indicate a strengthening signal across the western Maritime continent with eastward propagation of to the far western Pacific by the end of the period. Other models quickly weaken this signal.  

The MJO is forecast to strengthen during the period with the enhanced phase organizing over the Maritime continent and shifting into the western Pacific during the period.

There is considerable uncertainty at the current time and it is unclear if the predicted evolution will in fact emerge as more robust, long lived MJO activity in the coming weeks. 

The MJO is favored to substantially modulate the background pattern of anomalous tropical convection across much of the global Tropics over the period.
 

In terms of the extended outlook from the CPC, this does stand out:

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE-MEAN DYNAMICAL-MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO BE IN VERY GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA INTO 
THE WEEK-2 PERIOD. A TROUGH PERSISTS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AT 8-14 DAYS 
LEAD TIME, WHILE A RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IS PREDICTED TO INCREASE IN 
AMPLITUDE BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MODELS.

The increase in amplitude of that ridge if it does verify could mean some changes for Europe depending on how far east/west the pattern might get.

Edited December 14, 2015 by nick sussex

[tight isobar]

Mjo phasing into quadrant "5".

Deniying all other parameters/teleconections,at present the convective staging is presented. 

 

Keep a track on nearby phasing. .

I feel imment cross model flipidge' to a colder scenario. The one thing worth tracking at present in where basic model portraits maybe lacking behind. 

[knocker]

31 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

well trying to reply and quote the 8-14 NOAA chart knocker put up, will only let me quote whole post!

anyway there is something of an oddity on the 8-14. Look at the +ve anomaly over easter US? Not sure what it showed last night but certainly Saturday had no such +ve anomaly. So not sure if it is genuine but it seems a huge switch if it is?

It was there last night John although it has intensified and moved a tad east

 

[knocker]

Sam Lillo ‏@splillo 1h1 hour ago

Where your 240hr ensemble forecast looks like this, you might have some confidence in the longwave pattern

[johnholmes]

26 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Mjo phasing into quadrant "5".

Deniying all other parameters/teleconections,at present the convective staging is presented. 

 

Keep a track on nearby phasing. .

I feel imment cross model flipidge' to a colder scenario. The one thing worth tracking at present in where basic model portraits maybe lacking behind. 

I posted a link to the MJO 500mb equivalents earlier today; neither 4 nor 5 if >1 show any pattern that would bring major cold in my view to the UK?

[Gavin Hannah]

Is the GFS lining up a major cold plunge for the UK with this FI chart??  HP building across Canada and nudging towards Greenland...

 

 

Never mind lol.. LP spoiling the party.

Edited December 14, 2015 by Gavin Hannah

[Bullseye]

 

[Gavin Hannah]

I will say this.. HP is def trying to Ridge into Greenland and Scandi.... are the models picking up on something here? Or am I just clutching at straws?

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, Bullseye said:

 

Regarding the EPS I think he's over egging it a tad. It's more an east European ridge orientated SW/NE

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Regarding the EPS I think he's over egging it a tad. It's more an east European ridge orientated SW/NE

Just wondering Knocker if you have seen the Control run of the EC32 tonight yet?

[Ravelin]

An interesting last few frames on tonights 18z GFS, but then isn't that pretty much always the case. Anyway... 

Continuing hints that the period after Xmas could be more interesting but way too far out to have any confidence. 

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Only just this minute.

And? Same old story of mild PV?