Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

The GEFS temp anomaly for Xmas week

I'm buying you some blue colouring pens for christmas knocker..haha

[knocker]

29 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

In support of the ECM's forecast( which of course we want to verify!) the ECM has two ensemble systems, one which uses just real time data and the other which involves some climatology. Both ECM's support the quicker progression of the MJO, the CFS using climatology does aswell. The only model lukewarm about the MJO is the GEFS so we have to hope that this is wrong!

Actually it has four if you count the seasonal models

 

Edited December 15, 2015 by knocker

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Actually it has four if you count the seasonal models

 

Oh yes, they also disagree with the GEFS. Very strange to see such big differences over a relatively short timeframe.

[mountain shadow]

On Monday, December 14, 2015 at 8:41 AM, AdrianHull said:

A

The MJO gives a New Hope into the year and if we can somehow get into phases 8 and 1 then it really will be The Return of The Winter.

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Oh yes, they also disagree with the GEFS. Very strange to see such big differences over a relatively short timeframe.

Had to edit my post. A senior moment, I posted the same one twice.

[phil nw.]

It 's good to see forecasted movement of the MJO at last,hopefully this will continue.Early days yet of course before we see the possible effects on our pattern.

At least the 06z gefs height anomalies are picking up on the Scandinavian ridging towards New year.

A little early for the ECM ens we all see- only out to T240hrs- to show this yet.

Hopefully the MJO maintains strength as it moves eastward to induce enough amplification to really push some warrmth into the vortex in early january.

If this pattern does verify it may well draw more warmth north on this side of the ridging before we see the Atlantic weakening and the pattern change.The one caveat though is a weakening MJO could leave us with a flatter(Scuero) High to the east.

All speculation yet but some positive signs at least that we have some flicker of light at the end of this exceptionaly mild south westerly tunnel.

 

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Snowmut said:

 When all I want ...is a bit of bloody snow!! (said in Michael Caine like voice)

 I want frost but then I'm frosty but what I really want is less charts showing very mild uppers covering the whole of Europe  dammit!!..

[knocker]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

It 's good to see forecasted movement of the MJO at last,hopefully this will continue.Early days yet of course before we see the possible effects on our pattern.

At least the 06z gefs height anomalies are picking up on the Scandinavian ridging towards New year.

A little early for the ECM ens we all see- only out to T240hrs- to show this yet.

Hopefully the MJO maintains strength as it moves eastward to induce enough amplification to really push some warrmth into the vortex in early january.

If this pattern does verify it may well draw more warmth north on this side of the ridging before we see the Atlantic weakening and the pattern change.The one caveat though is a weakening MJO could leave us with a flatter(Scuero) High to the east.

All speculation yet but some positive signs at least that we have some flicker of light at the end of this exceptionaly mild south westerly tunnel.

I see you have been looking at the EC32 output Phil

[Captain Shortwave]

A definite trend for heights to re-establish with a vengeance post Christmas day, the debate will likely be the location and orientation of the high.

The GEFs anomalies actually give some decent support for the operational in setting up a real monster of a Euro/Scandi high with temperatures starting mid/very mild before dropping back as winds fall light over the UK with an increasing continental influence.

No real sign of a wintry pattern emerging yet but our position of course would be much more promising compared to what we have at the moment.

The one thing we really need to see going forward is a low height anomaly developing across southern Europe which would suggest that we can get a southern arm of the jet stream and allow the high to move north and importantly allow cold air move towards us.

GEFs

Pretty self explanatory, the two solutions here would be a NW/SE split with very mild conditions or we could have the high pressure closer to the UK with cooler temperatures and dry weather for most of the UK.

A few sniffs that we could get a wintry pattern occuring, the control gets close

A cut off Scandi high with deep cold pushing into Eastern Europe, too far east for us this time but the signature of high pressure to our north east and low pressure sitting south of this high is the key thing to look out for in the coming days.

At this stage personally I would like either of these two solutions to occur, first being we end up with a prolonged blowtorch to see us obliterate the current December CET record or we see a wintry pattern develop with an easterly flow. A cloudy cool anticyclonic pattern probably would be the worst solution here (Well in my view anyway).

Edited December 15, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

I see you have been looking at the EC32 output Phil

I havent got personal access to those Knocks.I only see any ext.ECM outputs that you and others kindly post/comment on here,lol.

I am sure you know like other factors the MJO amplitude and movement isonly a forecast and that is the reason for my thinking on that.

At that range i guess a bit of fencing sitting is always wise,but imo it is good to see at least a chance of something else apart from this current almost unseasonable mild if only to give us something else to discuss.

[Eskimo]

Since model watching from 2006, I can't remember the last time I saw such boring model output. 

[Sideways Snow]

16 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Since model watching from 2006, I can't remember the last time I saw such boring model output. 

It's quite depressing isn't it?! Hopefully the calm before a very wintery and prolonged storm

[Nouska]

EC 32 update continues with the MJO signal - not much change - maybe a tad more support for just staying out of the neutral core.

Last Thurs   today 

multi-model 

 

Edited December 15, 2015 by Nouska

[johnholmes]

We appear to have a major model divergence here John.

Hi there, hope you are well, good to see you on here. Mind you folk would be expecting you to have waved a magic wand for them!

Yes it is going to be interesting to see just what transpires. I only use the GFS output, stops me losing it with too many possibilities. What you show, how often have you seen that much difference?

 

[PolarWarsaw]

The output can only really be considered as boring and totally atrocious with regards to seasonal weather. It's very painstaking and dull watching isn't it at the moment? If roles were reversed then it would be people sitting through the summer months enjoying 'record breaking cold weather' - unfortunately, it doesn't help anybody (bar the heating bills). Netweather traffic down, the MOD thread very, very quiet during it's peak season can't be good for website ads and traffic. 

Meh. Here is hoping something can change soon or else this may go down as one of the worst seasons ever for Netweather and the MOD thread.

[mb018538]

1 hour ago, PerfectStorm said:

Since model watching from 2006, I can't remember the last time I saw such boring model output. 

I guess it's boring in a sense that it's not what you'd expect for December....but on the flip side, any potential record breaking month isn't boring to me! Hopefully this month will smash the record, and nicely in time for the start of January the Atlantic steamroller will run out of gas and the synoptics will change. GFS has been quite strong and consistent in showing a pattern change around the months end. All eyes peeled!

[Methuselah]

All I can add is that, as a lover of extremes (temperature wise) exceptionally mild weather can be as 'interesting' as can exceptionally cold...And, as we're only going to get whatever we get, anyway, we may as well make the most of it?

Spring 1975 showed us what can happen, even after the mildest of winters?

[phil nw.]

I wouldn't normally mentioned the later frames of an Operational GFS but again it models the Scandinvian hts. seen on earler runs and ens.Whether it comes to anything later on remains to be seen but considering the forecasted developments in the tropics wrt the MJO it is something to watch.

 

[Cloud 10]

Did someone say sceuro ridge?

 

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

The output can only really be considered as boring and totally atrocious with regards to seasonal weather. It's very painstaking and dull watching isn't it at the moment? If roles were reversed then it would be people sitting through the summer months enjoying 'record breaking cold weather' - unfortunately, it doesn't help anybody (bar the heating bills). Netweather traffic down, the MOD thread very, very quiet during it's peak season can't be good for website ads and traffic. 

Meh. Here is hoping something can change soon or else this may go down as one of the worst seasons ever for Netweather and the MOD thread.

Things are changing though, those ridges are still on the 12z GEFS members although less pronounced, if we can get the -EPO ridge blasting away at the same time, the vortex has to fall sometime. it was always going to be late this year before we were likely to get anything, we are still on course.

Edited December 15, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[IDO]

As you can see from the ensembles, the slow down in the Atlantic after D12 giving all sorts of outcomes re higher heights in our region. From experience the OP tends to overplay these and build Scandeuro heights. However some indication the MJO may feed into the models so cannot rule out; more runs needed:

GEFS at T336:   

Lots of variety there but looking like a period of warmer uppers inbound again for later in the month.

Christmas Day has been rather consistent for some runs: 

  GEM: 

Looking mild for most with a band of rain crossing NW to SE during the day, different members have timing differences. GEM on board with this setup as well, which is not surprising as there remains little entropy up to D10 at the moment. 

Just a case of waiting to see if the MJO signal is going to over ride the current background signal(s) and where will those heights build (MLB or HLB). It does look transient at the moment looking at the mobile trop PV, though the MJO could change that. Signs that the peak of +AO will be around Jan 10 so we will have the PV less of a driver going forwards:

antmasiello 12z GEFS warm +NAM/intact intense polar vortex entire run. QBO helps dictate timing of AO flips. It says peak +AO is first 10 days of Jan. 15/12/2015, 17:53

With strat warming still promising for later in January things are looking better for colder weather down to mid latitudes for the last half of Winter.

[feb1991blizzard]

24 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

Did someone say sceuro ridge?

 

Ive looked at Cohens paper on pressure patterns prior to an SSW and cant find an exact match but that ridge looks to be the key player wrt to getting an SSW.

[knocker]

Looking at tonight's GEFS five day anomalies highlights the change which is the retreat of the east Atlantic trough west and the positive heights build just the east of the UK. No mayor change vis the pattern over the Pole and upstream  This will have the effect of more settled weather over the UK over New Year albeit rather unseasonable warm

Charts weatherbell

 

 

Edited December 15, 2015 by knocker

[Spah1]

Don't know who Eric Web is but I follow him on Twitter. 

His recent tweet. 

"Textbook Strat Warming Event precursor showing up after Xmas on the ECMWF Weeklies/control, CFSv2, & even the GEFS".

[bobbydog]

55 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

I wouldn't normally mentioned the later frames of an Operational GFS but again it models the Scandinvian hts. seen on earler runs and ens.Whether it comes to anything later on remains to be seen but considering the forecasted developments in the tropics wrt the MJO it is something to watch.

 

yes phil, its still there. considering recent runs have been generally consistent overall, maybe this is the 'messines ridge' we have been waiting for to destroy the vortex...