Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[mb018538]

5 minutes ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

 

Can I just ask what the black holes are on the charts posted above. Thanks

They are anomalies on the 500mb heights....but they are so far into the positive they are off the scale!

[knocker]

It might be clearer looking at the 5-10 and 11-16 GEFS anomalies. They show the downstream amplification of the Atlantic trough and the Europe high Pressure which in the latter is ridging into the Baltic States. The black hole is a misleading analogy IMO.

[inghams85]

52 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

 

More black holes on the GEFS individual members than you can shake a stick at,a small selection included below.

Gonna be some fun model watching over the next couple of weeks.

 

 

The negative heights starting to show up in Europe is what catches my eye...... Baby steps, January looks VERY interesting 

[NorthernRab]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

Are they?

We all know (s)he means positive

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

Are they?

Not overwhelmingly but having followed the last 2 or 3 days of the GEFS there's small signs that's on the increase. The anomaly you just posted I believe will start to show this by the end of the weekend 

[knocker]

12 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Hi knocker can you please explain why you feel the black hole is misleading...it is an anomaly same as any other?..your dark brown temp anomalies aren't disimiliar?

Okay I'll withdraw the comment but I admit as a personal preference I prefer charts that have all the isohypse.

[feb1991blizzard]

Knocker does have a point there, the black hole on meteociel means an anomaly is off the scale, that means that their scale needs to be adjusted because it happens all too regularly, for instance  say 1050mb is a very strong anomaly but not so unbelievable that its pushing the boundaries of possibility, now 1070 for instance I could understand, yes I know the previous posts were referring to H500 but I'm just giving an example as what could happen on meteociel, off the scale should only really happen when some variable pushes the boundaries of whats possible, or the software should be programmed to adjust.

Edited December 16, 2015 by feb1991blizzard

[knocker]

Just now, Greenland1080 said:

Eh?...why withdraw any comment..your knowledge is far superior to mine....just an explanation would be good so we can understand?

Well I didn't think it that important as it's subjective but the stark black hole gives me the impression of something horrendous when essentially we are looking at a common and garden ridge. I think weatherbell overdo the colours as well

[Singularity]

8 hours ago, knocker said:

You are a wag Frosty. Notice I've moved on to the light brown crayon.

Can't resist trumping this with a U.S. chart (where our extremes often seem tame!)

45*F above the LTA... that's more than 20*C I think?

[joggs]

Maybe fergieweather can explain what the glosea and further soundings are up to?.

Edited December 16, 2015 by joggs

[Dr. Astro]

49 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Can't resist trumping this with a U.S. chart (where our extremes often seem tame!)

45*F above the LTA... that's more than 20*C I think?

It's about 7C above the norm.

[Liam J]

11 minutes ago, joggs said:

Maybe fergieweather can explain what the glosea and further soundings are up to?.

Here's the latest probability maps for Jan/Feb/Mar which I think will be from the GloSea5? 

Obviously a pinch of salt needed but they show a higher probability of above average temps for the rest of winter vs below average. 

 

 

 

Edited December 16, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Here's the latest probability maps for Jan/Feb/Mar which I think will be from the GloSea5? 

Obviously a pinch of salt needed but they show a higher probability of above average temps for the rest of winter vs below average. 

 

 

 

That's a hammer blow, really not good news, that model has been accurate the last 2 years.

[Liam J]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's a hammer blow, really not good news, that model has been accurate the last 2 years.

Wouldn't worry too much about those charts, if it's been accurate the last 2 years then maybe a tiny bit concerning but even the most sophisticated/complex NWP system would struggle to predict a whole season! 

Quote

Raw data are displayed for use by international meteorological centres. This does not constitute a seasonal forecast for a given location.

 

[nick sussex]

CPC still have 5/5 confidence in the pattern for the USA and Canada.

So the western USA troughing ,strong ridge in the eastern USA, that elongated troughing to the west of the UK and for Europe we're likely to see high pressure developing to the east/ne.

The issue at the moment is how amplified that troughing to the west of the UK will be and how far south/se it digs, this will then effect the movement of the Euro high which is likely to morph into the Sceuro high.

Energy distribution with this type of set up is difficult to judge at longer range, so it could be anything from mild southerly to colder se'ly or if theres favourable trough disruption perhaps something a bit more interesting.

The background movement of the MJO needs to be factored in as this could tip things either way.

[Singularity]

32 minutes ago, Dr. Astro said:

It's about 7C above the norm.

Really? I was looking at what it would mean if the difference was between, say, 0*C (32F) and 24.44*C (76F). That's a 44F anomaly.

 

I've not much to add on the models for this post unfortunately, so here's a novelty chart from yesterday evening's FIM-9:

That trough's been on the brandy cream!

ECM's more compact version from this evening's det. run looks more sensible:

[knocker]

The ecm T240 Anomaly has the trough mid Atlantic stretching a fair way south with the Euro HP pushing into the Baltic States. So the flow WSW with temps a touch above average in England. By T360 we have the vortex NW Greenland and the Atlantic trough retrogressed west and weakened slightly with a similar longitudinal adjustment by the HP leaving it ridging into Poland. The flow backed a tad to SW and temps above average.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm T240 Anomaly has the trough mid Atlantic stretching a fair way south with the Euro HP pushing into the Baltic States. So the flow WSW with temps a touch above average in England. By T360 we have the vortex NW Greenland and the Atlantic trough retrogressed west and weakened slightly with a similar longitudinal adjustment by the HP leaving it ridging into Poland. The flow backed a tad to SW and temps above average.

 

How strong and how far North does the ridge reach by 360 please?

[knocker]

4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

How strong and how far North does the ridge reach by 360 please?

It ridges up NE through Germany and Poland into the Baltic States. Quite strong.

Edited December 16, 2015 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, knocker said:

It ridges up NE through Germany and Poland into the Baltic States. Quite strong.

Ouch, I was hoping it would be really sharply orientated and right up into the polar regions. Thanks anyway.

[inghams85]

2 minutes ago, knocker said:

It ridges up NE through Germany and Poland into the Baltic States. Quite strong.

Would you say there are small steps towards a Scandinavian over European block knocks?

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, inghams85 said:

Would you say there are small steps towards a Scandinavian over European block knocks?

I think Knockers gone to his woodshed! lol The movement of the high will be dictated by how the troughing to the west aligns and if theres a negative tilt to it. Negative running nw/se, neutral north/south positive ne/sw.  You want to see a long elongated trough neg tilted digging as far se as possible this will help the high further north and nw.

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ouch, I was hoping it would be really sharply orientated and right up into the polar regions. Thanks anyway.

I don't want to minimize it it does stretch a fair way north and is well defined.

[chionomaniac]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Ouch, I was hoping it would be really sharply orientated and right up into the polar regions. Thanks anyway.

Remember that separate clustering may show flattened Euro ridges and Scandi ridges and somewhere in between in separate clusters. We just don't know.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I think Knockers gone to his woodshed! lol The movement of the high will be dictated by how the troughing to the west aligns and if theres a negative tilt to it. Negative running nw/se, neutral north/south positive ne/sw.  You want to see a long elongated trough neg tilted digging as far se as possible this will help the high further north and nw.

As long as its not very positively tilted and as long as its sharp and running quite high up latitude wise Nick, its still a good building block, this isn't going to be the killer blow to the vortex but as long as it weakens it and leaves it ripe to further attacks in the new year.....