Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[knocker]

The ecm T240 anomaly this morning has the familiar  upstream pattern with trough mid Atlantic and the European high to the east ridging north into the Baltic States. This would continue to leave the UK in a SW flow tending towards a N/S split and temps above average.

Moving into the ext period and T360 upstream much the same with the vortex over NW Greenland and trough mid Atlantic. but slightly weaker. The European HP has thus moved a tad west but is dtill ridging NE into the Baltic States. It does not at this stage constitute a Scandinavian block and the UK is still in the warm SW flow. Of course it could still edge further west as ba has suggested which would cut off the SW flow and a subsidence inversion could come into play thus cooler surface temps but the percentage play at the moment remains the European HP flexing it's muscles and pushing north before having a muscle spasm and retreating a little.

EDIT

Oh dear

 

Edited December 16, 2015 by knocker

[Gavin Hannah]

1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Without sounding like a kill-joy.. Please remember there is a winter 'banter' thread open, So let's all try and keep discussion to Model Output in here please.

Thanks, PM

Ah thought I had put that in the Banter thread...

Anyway.. Had a look at this mornings output and it's just a rinse and repeat scenario all the way to new year. The southerly draws are just rediculous and the surface temperatures are off the chart so to speak.

[terrier]

Well the gfs06z maintains the theme of very mild uppers. Looks mild or exceptionally mild right out to new year. Some of those upper air temps we should be seein in June July not December. Hopefully the mjo can do us some favours bringing down the ao pattern. Hopefully be some better looking output after the new year.

[chionomaniac]

37 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

Day 11-15 on both GEFS and EC EPS showing a very strong signal for Sceuro ridge, in a perfect position for wave 2 forcing.

This has excellent agreement with MJO phase 4 composites, and indeed the concept of anomalous mid latitude or Branstrator ridges tied into MJO/GWO phase 4 - 5 evolutions.

But to stress, it isn't necessarily about the MJO per se but what that means in terms of the hemispheric pattern becoming more amplified via increasing tendency and overall angular momentum. The start of the process to take the +AO down.

Yes - that WAA into Svalbard isn't going to go unnoticed, and it will be the first time this winter thatwarmer air will be introduced into the mix in this area. And the signal for the Sceuro ridge is very strong. Even if there is not a lot of Pacific help for wave 2, the Scandi high could still act as a strong precursor to a wave 1 event down the line. Traditionally in these types of regimes the AO takes it's first hit around 10th Jan as has been demonstrated by another great met AM.

 

 

[MP-R]

First chart of the GFS 06Z:

Final chart of the GFS 12Z:

Baby steps perhaps? Granted, it's FI, but how many runs does this Sceuro high need to appear on before it becomes a trend? It's certainly a viable option and so long as the PV doesn't become a monster and remains in its current state or even weakens, there's a reasonable chance that an evolution such as being shown may just come into fruition. Other than that, I'm struggling to find much of interest between now and Christmas.

 

[knocker]

There is some concern at the moment over how much rain will occur over the NW this weekend. A fair bit of uncertainty but needs to be kept an eye as does this little system on the Monday which could bring some very wet and windy weather to Scotland

Chart weatherbell

 

[LeeSnowFan]

This mornings 06z GFS  continues with the unsettled theme. Temperatures will range from 9 - 11c rain in the west and strengthening winds to gale force for Christmas day!

The days of Snow in December seem to be a thing of the past!

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

This mornings 06z GFS  continues with the unsettled theme. Temperatures will range from 9 - 11c rain in the west and strengthening winds to gale force for Christmas day!

The days of Snow in December seem to be a thing of the past!

Yes Lee I'm just pleased it won't be a mild blowtorch next week on the 6z, that would be rubbing more salt in the wounds of coldies but next week looks less mild than this week! :- )

[knocker]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yes Lee I'm just pleased it won't be a mild blowtorch next week on the 6z, that would be rubbing more salt in the wounds of coldies but next week looks less mild than this week! :- )

You are a wag Frosty. Notice I've moved on to the light brown crayon.

[IDO]

23 hours ago, nick sussex said:

I read the twitter banter going on and this MJO is certainly cause for much debate. At this point not to overplay the importance but we need something to change the pattern and also weaken the PV. We're all aboard the Good Ship MJO, lets hope it doesn't hit rocks and sink!

Hi

The 06z OP is a shocking outlier amongst the ensembles and I would just discard it: 

Looking at the GEFS ensembles, the Control supports the OP re HLB but only one other member really going with that setup and the mean keeps any pressure build as more of the same at D16:

Though as we would expect, temperatures will be moderated, as I dont expect the next seven days +7c over average could continue! A 48 hour cooler period just before the big day but the uppers on the rise again from Christmas Day:

GFS clearly not handling the likely more meridional flow after D11 and more time needed before it gets its act together!!

[nick sussex]

Just finished my morning on the sun lounger! Yes warm enough here for sunglasses and tanning cream, those geese which normally stop off for a few days before heading south have decided to settle here until further notice. I thought birds went quiet at night time but no these cackle 24hrs non stop.

Looking forward my new winter barometer will be when the geese decide to go as then winter might have actually arrived!

Right from geese watch to surveying the cold carnage that lays before us in terms of todays outputs which start off in the mild stinker category, although a trend to go from extremely mild and possibly record breaking to just mild, Amen to that wheres the bunting and the mariachi band!

I think the phrase "playing the long game" will be the phrase de jour because that's what we're looking at.  Having said all this there are a few shoots that have popped up from the rather unseasonably warm soil which may push the door open to something resembling winter.

So I think in terms of any cold, safe to write off the next ten days, the outputs are pretty ghastly and continue to test the patience and resolve of cold lovers.

The GFS 06hrs run does develop some interest past T240hrs, I normally don't comment or give much sway to GFS ramblings in outer  FI but the trend is not without some credence given the movement of the MJO. I'm not sure though in terms of it getting that quickly to that colder easterly flow but the Sceuro ridge trend does seem to be strengthening.

I think what we have to look out for is what happens around the T240hrs mark regarding how much dig south we might see in that Atlantic troughing, now this is where the MJO variable can play a bigger role, the issue I think is how amplified any troughing will be and therefore how much of a kick north the Euro high might get.

So that's what I think the main interest will centre around because the MJO NWP response is difficult to pin down, I wouldn't assume that the models have got this correct yet because the MJO does add in more fluidity and uncertainty to how things could develop.

We'll see in the coming days whether we can see an acceleration to a more amplified pattern.

 

 

[swilliam]

5 minutes ago, IDO said:

Hi

The 06z OP is a shocking outlier amongst the ensembles and I would just discard it: 

Looking at the GEFS ensembles, the Control supports the OP re HLB but only one other member really going with that setup and the mean keeps any pressure build as more of the same at D16:

Though as we would expect, temperatures will be moderated, as I dont expect the next seven days +7c over average could continue! A 48 hour cooler period just before the big day but the uppers on the rise again from Christmas Day:

GFS clearly not handling the likely more meridional flow after D11 and more time needed before it gets its act together!!

Not really shocking in terms of the overall pattern though - in fact quite close to the mean

 

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes warm enough here for sunglasses and tanning cream.

 

 

I need to wear sunglasses when knocker posts them red charts of Europe, they hurt my eyes otherwise! :- )

 

 

Edited December 16, 2015 by Frosty.

[gottolovethisweather]

4 hours ago, bigsnow said:

ALERT ALERT ALERT Frosty has been Kidnapped by Knocker.... he has him in the woodshed.....Panic Panic.....

Don't know about Frosty being kidnapped but Frosts have, these past few months for sure, only two, potentially threesince something like last March. The grass and crops are growing in the farmer's fields over yonder and the pesticides and fungicides will be in full use, the downside to having a currently abnormal climate setup, being that nothing shuts down for Winter. Nevermind, these record-breaking Temps will surely be a blip and it'll soon be Christmas anyhow. Added to that, there isn't a lot anyone can do to change the way things are, except perhaps buying more local and British produced food re: the above. Oops I'm now straying way off topic once again, sorry.

 

Back on topic, our attention and our thoughts need to be drawn towards the NW come the end of the week and with all this hot (well, unseasonably warm) air about, increased storm activity is a nigh on certainty past the weekend into Christmas week itself. Something for everyone, aside from deep cold snow-loving enthusiasts. 

Edited December 16, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[gottolovethisweather]

2 hours ago, Glacier Point said:

Branstrator ridges

Thanks as ever GP for your insights but what the heck are "Branstrator ridges", are these more characters out of Star Wars, perhaps. 

Edited December 16, 2015 by gottolovethisweather

[Nick L]

Again, folks, model discussion please.

[Mucka]

No change for me since I last posted there was signal for height rises to our East toward months end a couple of days back.

It still looks likely pressure will rise from the South building a sceuro ridge/high though possibly this could be a little further West and build more over the UK.

Either way it means things could settle down for a time from the South though likely to stay mild or very mild with SW flow.

If that does happen then we will be looking into the first week of January for signs of the jet undercutting to give us some potential MLB and cold but at this stage it is probably more likely the jet will ride over the top  returning us to more unsettled conditions,

It is at least a window of opportunity for a pattern change even though the odds are currently against.

That at least is where my attention will be for the next few days as the search for Winter continues.

[Nick L]

Several posts (namely a conversation about geese) have been moved to the winter thread in case you were wondering where your post has gone.

Carry on...

[Singularity]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some teasing  (b)easterlies cropping up in the longer range model output over the coming week or two, what with the Sceuro High and amplifying pattern theme at hand. It often seems to happen while the pattern is undergoing changes toward one more favourable for cold spells of weather in general, but rarely amounts to much more than a taster of things to come (or if we're unlucky, a false dawn, which is painful to go through).

[nick sussex]

The MJO update sees the ECM monthly increasing the amplitude and now a majority of members manage to get this into phase 7. Theres still a divergence though between the ECM/UKMO and GEFS. The UKMO in particular increases the amplitude strongly .

Looking at the trend of the last few days the models have under estimated the strength, lets hope this continues.

[Singularity]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The MJO update sees the ECM monthly increasing the amplitude and now a majority of members manage to get this into phase 7. Theres still a divergence though between the ECM/UKMO and GEFS. The UKMO in particular increases the amplitude strongly .

Looking at the trend of the last few days the models have under estimated the strength, lets hope this continues.

It all sounds very typical and GEFS has caught up with ECM at last.

I'd love to know what the Met Office make of the UKMO modelling but Fergie seems to have gone AWOL since things got a bit less friendly for a time two weeks ago. I vaguely recall UKMO going a bit nuts with the MJO earlier this year and the actual outcome turning out to be about halfway between it and GEFS.

Momentous times coming soon, we really need the pieces to come together right. Having that Sceuro/Scandi ridge being projected to be perfectly placed is reassuring at face value but also means any changes are likely to lead to downgrades. In that respect it's a good time to have excellent ensemble agreement with confidence in the overall pattern even out to 10 days at high levels.

[IDO]

54 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The MJO update sees the ECM monthly increasing the amplitude and now a majority of members manage to get this into phase 7. Theres still a divergence though between the ECM/UKMO and GEFS. The UKMO in particular increases the amplitude strongly .

Looking at the trend of the last few days the models have under estimated the strength, lets hope this continues.

I am still going with Dr Ventrice who mitigates this with his latest tweet:

MJVentrice
A strong atmospheric Kelvin wave will superimpose onto the El Nino standing this week. This will fool MJO tools. https://t.co/I0QZoLLsuU
16/12/2015, 13:28

MJVentrice
@tombo82685 Both RMM and space-time filtered products will show this as an MJO wave due to the nature of the pattern.
16/12/2015, 14:47

He is one of the leading lights in this type of developments.

[summer blizzard]

With the horror of the month to date my straw is firmly clutched at day 12 now in the hope that this tedium will end..

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2887.gif

[Singularity]

44 minutes ago, IDO said:

That's worth pointing out certainly - the convection isn't taking on the form of an MJO event per say. However, there is convection and it is moving east so similar effects seem probable (else where would the likes of GP and Lorenzo be coming from?).

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

That's worth pointing out certainly - the convection isn't taking on the form of an MJO event per say. However, there is convection and it is moving east so similar effects seem probable (else where would the likes of GP and Lorenzo be coming from?).

I understand that, what I mean is that you cannot then go to the MJO composites and expect the same scenario as if this was MJO forcing. This Kelvin Wave may just lead to a MLB over the UK and that is pretty bad if you want some wave 2 response to the strat. Of course it may lead to a Scandi/Euro ridge but I would not be getting too excited till we get some consistency.