Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Nouska]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

chinese whispers nick. fergie did clarify it a while back. as far as i remember, they are run at the same resolution and there is no "missing" data as such, the 06z and 18z are only "missing" the balloon data so they are run with the previous balloon data alongside the new info from other sources. they may be slightly less accurate but it is negligible. 

Indeed.

The fact that the NHC ask for six hourly radiosonde data when a major hurricane threatens the CONUS lends support that they may add value in extreme circumstances.

Anybody worrying about a lack of data at 18Z, take a look at what was collected by ECMWF at that timeframe yesterday.

http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/monitoring/coverage/dcover!synop-ship!18!pop!od!mixed!w_coverage!latest!/

For example, far more aircraft obs at 18Z than at 12Z.

 

[mountain shadow]

5 hours ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Some positive signs on the ECM monthly for a pattern change into January as we lose the mild air, looks quite stormy for a time with frequent blasts of PM air and the run finishes with a flow from the Arctic and an attempt at a mid Atlantic ridge towards Greenland, Euro high completely obliterated at T762 hours anyway lol... 

How do you know this Sub? 

This is great news and would indicate a substantially colder second half of January. 

Backed up by Glosea too.

 

[Liam J]

21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

How do you know this Sub? 

This is great news and would indicate a substantially colder second half of January. 

Backed up by Glosea too.

 

I've seen the ECM monthly charts which go out to the 15th of January, it does look like this current pattern we're stuck in will be losing it's grip as we move into the start of January onwards, that's assuming the ECM monthly is going to be correct of course! But possibly some more milder weather to get through during December before we get there... We can hope! 

Edited December 17, 2015 by *Sub*Zero*

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

I've seen the ECM monthly charts with go out to the 15th of January, it does look like this current pattern we're stuck in will be losing it's grip as we move into the start of January onwards, that's assuming the ECM monthly is going to be correct of course! But possibly some more milder weather to get through during December before we get there... We can hope! 

Yes I believe I have mentioned that a few times but it was Monday's run. The update is tonight.

[Liam J]

Just now, knocker said:

Yes I believe I have mentioned that a few times but it was Monday's run. The update is tonight.

Yeah, will be interesting to see if tonight's update carries on with the trend, here's hoping! 

[Nick L]

And even so, the ECM monthly charts I'm seeing show a zonal-dominated pattern going into January, albeit from a more PM source.

[Liam J]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

And even so, the ECM monthly charts I'm seeing show a zonal-dominated pattern going into January, albeit from a more PM source.

Which would be a million times better than the blow torch SW'ly rubbish we have now, if it is correct then the Euro highs days are numbered. 

[Nick L]

I will add, however, that the signal from the previous update was for considerably cooler conditions than what we're experiencing now (not hard, I know). 850s generally below zero going into the new year, but remaining unsettled. Update to come overnight though so we'll see where it heads.

[Nick L]

Just now, *Sub*Zero* said:

Which would be a million times better than the blow torch SW'ly rubbish we have now, if it is correct then the Euro highs days are numbered. 

Agreed! Was about to add onto my post that I think most will welcome a change from the dross at the moment. What was showing on the latest run is fairly consistent with the previous run, perhaps more unsettled. A long way to go and a lot of mild to get through first though.

[knocker]

35 minutes ago, Nick L said:

And even so, the ECM monthly charts I'm seeing show a zonal-dominated pattern going into January, albeit from a more PM source.

But they do have the Euro HP ridging into the Baltic States around Xmas which has been cottoned on to and then losing the ridge around the 3rd. Await tonight's run with interest

Edited December 17, 2015 by knocker

[Newberryone]

After the brief respite of recent days it's certainly shaping up to be a rather turbulent affair for Christmas week with copious rainfall and the potential for some damaging gusts. Some headline making weather to come one would think, let alone a rough ride for Santa. 

[Liam J]

Happy stormy new year, massively different to the last run but the 12z GFS kills the Euro high into January, which is what the ECM wants to do, be much happier if/when such a scenario gets into the reliable... 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Happy stormy new year, massively different to the last run but the 12z GFS kills the Euro high into January, which is what the ECM wants to do, be much happier if/when such a scenario gets into the reliable... 

Also shows main troughing heading East...

All very GLOSEA like in the final couple of frames with pressure starting to rise in general out West.

[nick sussex]

The GFS 12hrs run has a less amplified low to the west so not such good WAA to develop high pressure further north.

The amplitude of this low is key really for where the Euro high initially goes. Upstream changes are expected next week in the Pacific with a more amplified pattern setting up this is likely to develop a western USA trough.

Downstream this is likely to effect that high pressure in the eastern USA and the movement  of the PV in the Arctic area.

We'll have to see what impacts this has on any troughing to the west of the UK.

.

 

[IDO]

32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Also shows main troughing heading East...

All very GLOSEA like in the final couple of frames with pressure starting to rise in general out West.

More like the JMA update of a zonal flow with a moderated PM bursts, as the jet turbo charges through the UK.

W3-4 mean:  

I suppose with the jet a bit further south it takes the TM flow out of the equation for a while, but hard to get too excited by wet and windy weather in average temps!  Not the change I was hoping for.

The GEFS still trying to resolve the wave after d10 but the mean remains steadfast with no sign of a Scandi Ridge/HP. The op and control also moving away from this now, with any amplification flattened within a day or two. The op after D12 has little support (again), with the mean more in line with the current pattern continuing:

  >>>Thats at D14/15 and the mean remaining in mild uppers: 

Still more runs needed I think as the D16 ensembles suggest: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=384

 

Edited December 17, 2015 by IDO

[Frosty.]

Well this looks much better from the Gfs 12z op run with an increasingly wintry spell through the new year, the NH profile is a vast improvement on the current very mild dross...as far as i'm concerned if it's colder with a higher risk of snow....BRING IT ON!

[knocker]

The GEFS 5-10 anomaly tonight shows a strong vortex N. Canada with the Atlantic trough Iceland running way south with the Europe HP to the east beginning to edge north into the Baltic. Around the 28th is the time when the HP expands and ridges north whilst the trough digs less deep. This is reflected markedly in the 11-15 with the HP ridging NE into the northern Baltic and also a suspicion of a height rise to the south west which is not obvious on the 11-15 as it only appears in late stages of the run. In summation the flow from the SW quadrant throughout and temps remaining above average.

Edited December 17, 2015 by knocker

[January Snowstorm]

Am liking the ecm @ 192 hrs.

Certainly different with deep cold not a million miles away esp for Northwestern parts. As I said a couple of days ago pattern changes can spring up out of the blue!! (Pardon the pun) ☺

[nick sussex]

The ECM is a bit more festive with some colder air slipping se on Christmas Day, a frosty night to follow and a crisp Boxing Day.

The ECM has brought back that deeper upstream low, its a shame that phases with the low to the sw but its pattern is similar to the GFS.

Given the expected changes in the Pacific next week things might yet turn out a bit more favourable for some colder conditions.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM is a bit more festive with some colder air slipping se on Christmas Day, a frosty night to follow and a crisp Boxing Day.

The ECM has brought back that deeper upstream low, its a shame that phases with the low to the sw but its pattern is similar to the GFS.

Given the expected changes in the Pacific next week things might yet turn out a bit more favourable for some colder conditions.

 

The beginning of the end of this spell of weather is now shown at 240 hrs on ECM. Should be one last hurrah (with the UK being exceptionally mild for a couple of days) before we see a real change. For the first time this month there looks to be light at the end of the tunnel come year end. Hopefully we can get that warm surge as far N as possible. ECM monthly will be interesting tonight.

[Frosty.]

I would happily take this from the Ecm 12z this evening, to me, anything is better than this current Blowtorch of air from west africa! Christmas week shows more seasonal conditions at times with some overnight frosts, Boxing day in particular looks crisp and frosty early and late.

[chris55]

A Christmas lull would be appreciated,

 

 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Agree with this post Xmas something more seasonal, euro heights waning and a return to normal temps....with potential to drive waa north to disrupt the vortex into the New Year........can't wait

The only question is how far into January before we see anything meaningful in terms of cold affecting our shores? Difficult to say at this point!

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

A Christmas lull would be appreciated,

 

 

 

Here Here, i'll drink to that

[Mair Snaw]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The only question is how far into January before we see anything meaningful in terms of cold affecting our shores? Difficult to say at this point!

Well it took until the 3rd week of January in 2013 and then most of us had a right good few months after that... defo a sniff of a change in the pattern from new year onward... its good to see but still does not guarantee the UK cold and snow.... but anything is better than what we have had so far..