Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, aitchbomb said:

We got people in here looking for recognition and plaudits punting for a wet mildly and windy Christmas. What odds they expecting for a Forest Green Rovers v Man City game?

No, we aren't: we are looking for blizzards but there aren't any...What goes around, comes around?

[bryan629]

Well well, im certainly not an expert on Pv and what goes on in the strat but this made me wonder if this is normal for its behaviour. 

Firstly at 192 on the 12z a fairly robust, malificent  strong vortex with some leaning on the old boy from the Eurasian side.  

Then at 384 ( all caveats considered) it looks like a very shrunken, displaced PV.. is this a good thing for strat weakening or is it just normal behaviour ? 

 

[ANYWEATHER]

Hello, just looking through the later frames of the Ecm from this morning, I think it had a festive hangover this morning! The last three timeframes go from a deep low to a very strong ridge 24 hrs later and then a strong ridge over southern Europe another 24 hrs later. To my eyes that's one heck of a model output Bloomer.....Will be interesting what the 12z Ecm shows tonight?

Edited December 13, 2015 by ANYWEATHER

[NorthernRab]

18 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I disagree Rab. Given the current repeating pattern we're in, it is easy to forecast ten days ahead.

There are no such things as surprise snow spells  (nationwide) anymore. 

You'll notice my statement makes a degree of allowance for this. 240 hours, which is about the very limit of any confidence we can generally have in forecasting with reference to the models, only takes us to the 23rd of December, the following week or so which includes both Christmas and Hogmanay are very far from set in stone. The exact position of the Polar Vortex and its precise behavior are still very much an unknowns as we head into the new year meaning talk of coming back in three weeks (!) is a bit daft imho.

[Captain Shortwave]

Thursday

Saturday

 

Probably wrong to not include these as potentially daily CET records could be broken this week (Thursday, Saturday and Sunday could be potentially broken), the GFS shows temperatures of 15C widely on Thursday

The GFS not so keen on the chance on Saturday (only around 12C).

Not a lot of other interest, it looks quite wet in the west this week but nowhere the level of recent weeks luckily.

Edited December 13, 2015 by Captain Shortwave

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, bryan629 said:

Well well, im certainly not an expert on Pv and what goes on in the strat but this made me wonder if this is normal for its behaviour. 

Firstly at 192 on the 12z a fairly robust, malificent  strong vortex with some leaning on the old boy from the Eurasian side.  

Then at 384 ( all caveats considered) it looks like a very shrunken, displaced PV.. is this a good thing for strat weakening or is it just normal behaviour ? 

 

 

Doesnt look so displaced and weak when the heights are veiwed though

 

 

Incidentally, off topic and I note Washington Dc is currently 23C !!

Edited December 13, 2015 by bluearmy
Added on a bit of guff

[Northern Sky]

A pretty horrific run from the ECM if you are looking for anything cold. I suppose from a weather perspective the ridiculously high temps are of interest although I'd rather do without. It always seems that these set ups are less subject to uncertainty and we have to wait until the final frame for any crumbs of comfort. Any deep cold looks out of reach for Christmas and I think the best we can hope for is a blast of pm air. Given the state of things I'd grab that with open arms!

[JOPRO]

At what point are we in barttlet set up? 

[cheshire snow]

54 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Even I can't find anything to cheer re cold tonight.......it's a freaking horror show if your looking for colder weather

The only positive i can find,is it cannot get any worse can it?

C.S

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Even I can't find anything to cheer re cold tonight.......it's a freaking horror show if your looking for colder weather

Couldn't agree more. Even the signal for the jet to sink south just before xmas has all but dissolved. Absolutely shocking!

Time to call on GP. He made a post some days ago stating 27th onwards were the dates to look for in terms of cold. Would be good to hear his latest thoughts on this. GP give us some hope

Edited December 13, 2015 by blizzard81

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

The only positive i can find,is it cannot get any worse can it?

C.S

It can get worse, knocker hasn't mentioned his Barbie in the woodshed or his triple bumper crop of daffs yet today..only joking knocks. :-)

[knocker]

Still time Frosty. The AC is on full blast in the woodshed. There really are some quite astonishing temp anomaly charts.

Chart weatherbell

 

[phil nw.]

There is no getting away from it,the current NH pattern is a horror show for any chances of deep cold.

If it is possible todays runs are worse with the jet realigning sw-ne for much of the coming week-no wonder we see the talk of very mild temperatures.

Looking towards Christmas week the trend is still there(just) for something nearer normal as the jet looks like easing a little further south.

The GEFs stamps for Christmas day show the majority of members at least putting the UK on the cooler side of the jet

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=0&ech=288

the 850hPa temp graph for Warks.-still a downward trend

the Op run looks to be much warmer around Christmas against the mean so that cool down for week 2 is still on at the moment.

I think we are in the situation now where are hoping to squeeze the best that is possible out of an awful +NAO pattern and get a bit of luck in order to see something more seasonal around Christmas,even if it's only a quick visit of pm air.

 

 

Edited December 13, 2015 by phil nw.

[Daniel*]

Well I still think there is a decent chance the big day will have some snow falling in the country. I'd say Inverness is a good bet some festive cheer maybe?

down sarf it all looks rather miserable.

Some cold zonal for the northern half of the country at T+240 seen worse...

But yes no Christmas miracle let's hope the pub run is on the booze... 

 

Edited December 13, 2015 by Daniel*

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Greenland1080 said:

Frosty we need some cheering up  tonight

Lol I've been trying to do that all day :-)

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

That chart makes me feel so depressed..I mean my grandkids want snowballs, snowmen, snow, ....not a bbq an snow globe ......Frosty we need some cheering up  tonight

You could give them a real treat roasting some chestnuts on an open barbie. Magical.

[PolarWarsaw]

A Summary of tonight's model output....

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm Moving to Siberia.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ali1977]

Positives are we are all saving money on heating, personally I'd rather be in a big freeze with the radiators cranked up to the max. I just keep an eye on the METO long range and hope for a ray of light!!

oh, another positive is those crazy express editors must be feeling stupid after their crazy 3 month freeze headlines!!

Edited December 13, 2015 by Ali1977

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Positives are we are all saving money on heating, personally I'd rather be in a big freeze with the radiators cranked up to the max. I just keep an eye on the METO long range and hope for a ray of light!!

oh, another positive is those crazy express editors must be feeling stupid after their crazy 3 month freeze headlines!!

Wont stop them doing it again next year........ maybe if we all stop looking for them the cold charts will creep up on us and catch us out....

 

[cornish snow]

6 minutes ago, knocker said:

You could give them a real treat roasting some chestnuts on an open barbie. Magical.

Yeah,in the wind and rain,truly magical. 

I'll take your word for it though Knocker,Take it your out there tonight,tongues in hand with your apron on.

[Mair Snaw]

2 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

One last one from me ....I have noticed except for odd stress out there is none of the mild cold nastiness this year...more banter, respect and friendliness....long may it continue....

Less to get hung up on i guess.... we dont have " these uppers aint cold enough drama" we dont have as many people in the thread to get upset when it dont come off In there back yard etc.... must say ive enjoyed it and have not worried about posting in here and being wrong as nobody is shooting others down over the slightest things....

[Bullseye]

Well at least majority of USA will be joining us on the Xmas Barbecue based on latest GFS run!  The chart Knocker posted is simply amazing, to date only Iceland/Turkey running below average with Scotland also around cold/normal!

[Paul_1978]

Is anyone actually surprised at the current output? Medium range forecasts all along said a mild, wet and windy Dec. 

Model output is pretty much as expected. 

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening, It really makes my heart beat faster that people come on here hoping for a White Christmas! How often does that happen? Once in a lifetime? Ecm has dropped its stupid southern European high and gives us the Atlantic, Much better than its previous run. It does look like some folk will see some snow over the Christmas period, upland areas of course favourable, just want the jet stream to dig a little further south and some folks will be happy during Xmas day. Folks the Atlantic is in full control as per normal , So in summary... Wet and Windy , Mild , Sunny , Sunny intervals , cloudy and cold , damp , snow on hills /Mountains ,Stormy, Ice and slush, Drizzle, a few tornadoes,. sunny with blue skies and frost. In reality  the  Atlantic has a lot to offer,

[carinthian]

This latest model prediction from ECM really is of a concern for all. The continuation of the drought in Central Europe is unwielding. The snow drought will have a damaging effect shortly to the ski business. The prolonged spell of rain for the British Isles likely to intensify again on the run up to Christmas. Overall this mild period is so extensive that it is in effect an extreme mild spell for much of Europe. Some of the temps this week must be approaching extreme values for the time of year. These charts are the worst I have seen to a start to winter since the early 1970s regarding cold prospects.

 C

Edited December 13, 2015 by carinthian