Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Frosty.]

19 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Sadly for those looking for the elusive cold spell it remains just that, elusive.

Nothing in the 6-15 day outputs from whatever source show any consistent indication of the major change needed to give a cold spell.

The anomaly charts show the major pattern is a marked trough somewhere west even SW at times of the UK with no indication that this is going to change markedly. What may be of some comfort to those so badly affected by high rainfall totals is that the 500mb flow is showing signs of decreasing. This should have the effect of decreasing the number of deep surface features and the rainfall totals over the 6-15 day period. It terms of any cold then behind each surface feature as the surface and upper flow switches to a more west to NW for a short period then colder air briefly more especially for the northern half. No signal at all so far of any major cold burst.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

I hope the Met Office are still seeing signs of cold for the last third of december..as they were yesterday!

[knocker]

After the weekend depressions there might be a pleasant interlude as a ridge builds and moves east instigating some WAA.

 

[carinthian]

Good Morning, a colder end to this week for most of British Isles. The model charts for Sunday are showing some uncertainty. The warm front looks like making limited progress NE wards this time with perhaps Northern UK holding on to colder air mass for a bit longer. Perhaps snowfall may come into the forecast later into next weekend, especially further north and east with height. Whether this is transitional will be determined how quickly the colder air ahead of the front is over ridden. The timing and speed of movement of this front is now open to some debate and we await further updates as the upper air push is now weakening from this direction.

 C

Edited December 8, 2015 by carinthian

[Summer Sun]

Not a great deal of change from the ECM ens with high pressure to the south east and low pressure to the north west leaving us in a south westerly flow

[mountain shadow]

5 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I hope the Met Office are still seeing signs of cold for the last third of december..as they were yesterday!

The Met Office forecast says colder not cold. That can simply mean average or slightly above average temperatures as opposed to the well above average temperatures we have now.

As John says, there is  zero sign of anything remotely cold away from Northern hills into the New Year.

 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Met Office forecast says colder not cold. That can simply mean average or slightly above average temperatures as opposed to the well above average temperatures we have now.

As John says, there is  zero sign of anything remotely cold away from Northern hills into the New Year.

 

They actually said less chance of mild weather through late december which at least offers hope for coldies like me and in any case, i'm not seeing wall to wall mild mush in the run up to christmas on the latest models.

[Methuselah]

Please peeps? This isn't the place for playing semantics with what the MetO is, or isn't, saying...Back to model discussion?

[Iceberg]

To be fair John said " Nothing in the 6-15 day outputs from whatever source show any consistent indication of the major change needed to give a cold spell. "

Not that there is no sign, the word consistent is important and to continue to be fair there isn't really any consistent indication in the models for anything.

To say there is no sign of a cold spell or any indications of a cold spell is simply wrong.

Purely taking the latest 06z at T168 (as far as it goes out whilst I am typing and a good indicator of the boardline into FI, we have most of the UK under -4 or less 850's a greenland high forming and a jet so far south, the azores will be watching out for it.

(charts to support).

Re anom and EC32, you have to remember they arn't really picking up any signal, so its normalised, confirmation bias. i.e temps around average with a few milder and colder bits.

 

What the GFS makes beyond this is irrelavent, equally so are the charts to be fair, we need consistency before we dismiss anything before christmas, let alone new year.!

 

 

Edited just to add, a strong signal though for a very southerly jet, as evidence by last nights and this mornings output

Edited December 8, 2015 by Iceberg

[Paul]

38 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

As John says, there is  zero sign of anything remotely cold away from Northern hills into the New Year.

 

Not quite. John is talking about the 6-15 day anomalies, which take us to 23rd December. Plus he also said 'no sign of a major cold burst' based on that output, which isn't the same as 'zero sign of anything remotely cold'.

The news isn't stunning for cold weather fans admittedly, but we may as well stick to what's being said rather than embellishing it!

 

[cheshire snow]

Oh Hello 06GFS FI

Brings in a Northerly later in the run with Wintry PPN as far south as the Middlands

C.S

 

[Dr. Astro]

40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Met Office forecast says colder not cold. That can simply mean average or slightly above average temperatures as opposed to the well above average temperatures we have now.

As John says, there is  zero sign of anything remotely cold away from Northern hills into the New Year.

 

Yea, nothing remotely cold on the horizon.

 

[bobbydog]

blizzard sweeping the whole country on the 06z

pfft...

 

[Tim Bland]

41 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The Met Office forecast says colder not cold. That can simply mean average or slightly above average temperatures as opposed to the well above average temperatures we have now.

As John says, there is  zero sign of anything remotely cold away from Northern hills into the New Year.

 

I must be imagining charts line the below that show uk wide snow and -8 uppers in 10 days time then!

point is models are all over the place and Shannon is showing her face again.

tooks such as ECM monthly means are useless at the moment. If we had 2 weeks average 1 week record cold and 1 weeks record mild it would show as average temps for the month

 

[Summer Sun]

This would be a big shock to the system!

[cheshire snow]

FI On the 06z stays on the cold side in the run up to Christmas Eve

A new trend from GFS or another Tease.....no prises for guessing the Obvious.

C.S

[knocker]

Looking good for the barby on the beach Xmas day. Get in there....................................................

 

[Rocheydub]

Yes, good charts for coldies (me included) but as John stated, we'll need to see these modelled consistently and across most reliable models before I'll get excited. I find tempering expectations reduces the inevitable disappointment and reduces the manic hysteria that regularly occurs here in the winter months. I'm sure while most of the mods are weather enthusiasts like me, they must dread the first signs of HLB in our area as winter gets underway!!! Good luck guys!

 

PS, even if that Greeny high was to occur, it's quite weak and not very robustly shaped, to me, looks like it would be consumed by mr. Atlantic!

Edited December 8, 2015 by Rocheydub

[Summer Sun]

Just coming back to the closer time frame GFS gives a very clear spilt in temps on Saturday Midlands south very mild north of the Midlands colder with parts of north west Scotland not getting above 0c

 

Less cold for the north on Sunday the one exception though is north west Scotland

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking good for the barby on the beach Xmas day. Get in there....................................................

 

I don't think so knocker!!! Just a post with you trying to wind others up.

[Rocheydub]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I don't think so knocker!!! Just a post with you trying to wind others up.

While it was an obvious joke, it would be warm on that chart, very warm for time of year, look at those fetch of winds all the way from Africa!!! Awful stuff!

 

Knowing our luck, this is the FI that would come true!!!

[radiohead]

The evolution on the 06Z OP looks to be a complete outlier compared so the rest of ensembles. So while it is nice eye candy it will probably end up in the bin.

 

[MPG]

Nice 06z in FI. The 12z will be so different as others have already alluded to yesterday. 

[Newberryone]

24 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking good for the barby on the beach Xmas day. Get in there....................................................

Were this to verify, would this not see temps above average with a far fetch southwesterly bringing something we've all become so very accustomed to by now, showers or longer spells of rain. 

 

 

[Hocus Pocus]

19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I don't think so knocker!!! Just a post with you trying to wind others up.

Yet it's just as likely to verify as any other chart posted in FI.

[chris55]

There definitely looks to be a slackening of the pattern as we head through the weekend and a tendency for the Atlantic onslaught to quieten somewhat. If we can get some high pressure to fill the "void" then we could be looking at some more blocked conditions as we head through next week. Both GFS and ECM are toying with ridges here and there and with a tendency for a more southerly and quieter jet-stream who knows, we may get something of interest developing. Although at present the mid range is all over the place with regard to details.