Model output discussion - 1st December onwards

[Mucka]

Some key differences at just 120h between ECM and GFS upstream

 

[Summer Sun]

ECM and UKMO still have some pretty big differences for the weekend settled Saturday and unsettled Sunday with some strong winds on this afternoons ECM

 

UKMO's weekend charts are on page 19

Edited December 7, 2015 by Summer Sun

[nick sussex]

The model mess continues with no agreement in Europe and different scenarios upstream in the USA and Canada.

The ECM looking at the upstream pattern could deliver something to cheer for coldies, possible ridge being pushed ne at T192hrs.

I think I jinxed it! lol With a bit more amplitude  we might have got the shortwave in southern Norway to cut back into wards the UK. This ECM run is wildly different to the 00hrs so hard to know what will happen next week.

Edited December 7, 2015 by nick sussex

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

What an end to the ECM....

 

BFTP

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What an end to the ECM....

 

BFTP

What are the odds on that remaining on the 00hrs run? The outputs are all over the place, if the ECM somehow does survive till tomorrow the T240hrs will finally rid us of that hideous Euro high slug with pressure falling in central Europe.

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What an end to the ECM....

 

BFTP

Yes, the last ecm chart just screams incoming northeasterly day 11 onwards.

[Ali1977]

2 good ECMs on the bounce, problem is they were totally different!! No chance next one will follow this is there??

[Bullseye]

Some of the US mets over on Twitter are thinking the recent SOI crash is causing the model difficulties, with them advising to look no further than 3/4 days. As for stratosphere warming in FI can the recent Volcano activity impact not only the stratosphere but also model difficulties lately?

Edited December 7, 2015 by Bullseye

[KTtom]

13 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

What an end to the ECM....

 

BFTP

For  visitors / members trying to make head or tail over the models, which is hard enough with the constant inconsistencies I find this sort of post really pointless....what about the end to the ECM?!

[blizzard81]

Just now, Bullseye said:

Some mets over on Twitter are thinking the recent SOI crash is causing the model difficulties, with them advising to look no further than 3/4 days. As for the strasophere warming in FI can the recent Volcano activity impact not only the strasophere but also model difficulties lately?

What is the SOI crash?

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

2 good ECMs on the bounce, problem is they were totally different!! No chance next one will follow this is there??

Typically it will probably find consistency when it comes up with a mild solution! But as for your question no I think there will be yet another solution in the morning.

[Hocus Pocus]

6 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What is the SOI crash?

Southern Oscillation Index, apparently it's dropped like a stone over the last few days and this will impact the NH over the coming weeks.

[bryan629]

3 minutes ago, Hocus Pocus said:

Southern Oscillation Index, apparently it's dropped like a stone over the last few days and this will impact the NH over the coming weeks.

 

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What is the SOI crash?

This was posted on twitter November 30th... not sure if it is relevent as regards the last few days. 

[marksiwnc]

Just now, Hocus Pocus said:

Southern Oscillation Index, apparently it's dropped like a stone over the last few days and this will impact the NH over the coming weeks.

What COULD be the implications on us in the distant future?? 

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looks to me like 264 hours (if there was one) would show the low exiting ESE with HP ridging over the top...perhaps as you say, producing a weak E'ly or NE'ly. However there is the chance it would become more sustained with a push from the NE and better heights building over the top over the LP. All conjecture either way.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Paul
Removed quoted post

[Nouska]

36 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

What COULD be the implications on us in the distant future?? 

 

A falling SOI can be indicative of a strengthening Nino signal - it may mean that the models will be boosting the climatological ENSO response.

If we have false signals coming from the tropics via the MJO and an SOI on steroids it will be both enhancing and conflicting the teleconnections built into the model dynamics.

I should add the index for those not familiar.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

An edit to include the ECM and GFS det forecasts for the MJO - both very different in how they see progression - this will be reflected in daily output. The GFS ensembles seem to have got lost since update.

Edited December 7, 2015 by Nouska
additional info

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Nouska said:

A falling SOI can be indicative of a strengthening Nino signal - it may mean that the models will be boosting the climatological ENSO response.

If we have false signals coming from the tropics via the MJO and an SOI on steroids it will be both enhancing and conflicting the teleconnections built into the model dynamics.

Not to mention that a strengthening Nino pattern may not be a bad thing as we head towards Jan, could in fact heighten the liklihood of an SSW. I must say this outcome is looking likely at the minute having read the strat thread.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Everyone.... Not good news for Winter Lovers or those affected by flooding Im afraid,,,A brief cold shot for all by the end of the week and then it turns very mild and extremely wet in the NorthWest of the Uk  again with renewed flooding , The extended outlook is "Pin the tail to the Donkey" at T+240 although with  years of weather watching to my eyes the Atlantic will be in charge in one shape or form right into Christmas,,,,,

[Iceberg]

ECM is good at T240 simply as it *should lead to Height rises over Scandy.

I still stand my what i said earlier, and am not over analysing the EC but it shows nicely the difference caused by small changes.

3 EC charts from well spaced time frames.

one shows the flat and southerly jet exiting near florida.

one shows the jet (still in the reliable timeframe as it splits into  far southern arm and a mid atlantic arm).

one shows most of the energy into the southern arm, which pushes the jet finally into the Sahara(what a push).

A bit more energy into the mid atlantic and we get flat mild dross, energy into the far south arm and a sustained cold potential.

Just one of many drivers/potential drivers over the next 5-7 days.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

For  visitors / members trying to make head or tail over the models, which is hard enough with the constant inconsistencies I find this sort of post really pointless....what about the end to the ECM?!

Many 'get it' and all one has to do is look at it really KTom.  It ain't benign, it's trouble if that comes off with potential quite wintry weather adding in the mix.  So pointless if u really want to say pointless

 

BFTP

[Singularity]

Compared to 24 hours ago it seems that ECM + GFS and UKMO + GEM have swapped sides with respect to how that mid-Atlantic low behaves during the weekend.

GFS highlights just how much trouble that low could cause if it does come our way, pulling in a lot of mild, moisture-laden air with it (it turns balmy again across the south); here's the pre-weekend accumulated total on the left, and the post-weekend total on the right:

That corresponds to 48-hour totals of more than 60 mm across many western parts with more than 100 mm over some high ground. The totals actually increase another 15 mm or so by noon Monday. Then we have to factor in the shortfall of the model with respect to the most extreme totals recorded over the weekend just gone - it was by around 50 mm or so I think? That may in part be down to small-scale topography not being captured effectively enough.

 

Longer term, I'm not sure I can take even the broad-scale themes seriously one way or another given that the model output has spent much of the past few weeks making mid-range adjustments towards outcomes more typical of a strong El Nino background. At the moment I'm wondering where the deep Aleutian trough has gone, following the bombing low in that area in about a week's time.

 

[A.J]

5 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Many 'get it' and all one has to do is look at it really KTom.  It ain't benign, it's trouble if that comes off with potential quite wintry weather adding in the mix.  So pointless if u really want to say pointless

 

BFTP

Fred, I think what KTom is getting at, is that you posted a one liner with no reference to what you meant such as elaborating your sentence and an example chart....not everyone would have seen the entire ECM run when you made your post 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Many 'get it' and all one has to do is look at it really KTom.  It ain't benign, it's trouble if that comes off with potential quite wintry weather adding in the mix.  So pointless if u really want to say pointless

 

BFTP

Bizarre response.  Given that an inxperienced member was asking for more information regarding a vague statement you made about a model, your snide response seems bad-tempered and out-of-place.  We're not all experienced Model analysers (I'm certainly not), and this thread should not be a closed shop or exclusionary club.

 

EDIT:  I regret posting this and have apologised via. PM to Mods.  I stand by my response, but it should not have been made public.

Edited December 7, 2015 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Putting apology n the record.

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, Back to polite discussion now please.

[lassie23]

More interesting model analysis from Simon Keeling, this time looking at the MJO  and NAO and a possible cold late January and February. Another six weeks of mild unsettled weather, then a possible pattern change. Snow lovers, all is not lost yethttp://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php