South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[Ice Day]

9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Downgrades?

will be cold and snowy or cold and frosty for at least a week. Either is a damn sight better than what we've had thus far. 

Yes, there is very strong model agreement out to about days 8-9 that we are going to get a fairly potent northerly blast that could extend further still.  I have a feeling it's going to get very busy on this thread!

[Mark wheeler]

Right ok . At work We have a whats app group and my job is to keep people notified of upcoming weather as I work in retail as a manager. I've probably done it now because I've said to order salt for pavements in etc if they don't have any because it's going to get BRRRR . I didn't upload the picture . They wouldn't understand it anyway but extreme I know.tee hee

 

[snowray]

GFS 18z downgrades, just for a bit of drama. Still cold, but dry for us as the HP moves in pretty quickly.

 

Heres the 120z fax.

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by snowray

[steveinsussex]

1 hour ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Universal model agreement here very rare,,that dream could and should turn into a reality. I do not see any downgrades which will affect us getting much colder temperatures.

downgrades have started already....

 

 We all know, from previous experience, what the models showed earlier today is extremley unlikely, it will get cold but nothing dramatic

[Kent Blizzard]

You don't think the Atlantic block looks better on the control Steve?

I think most realised there will be downgrades and no doubt upgrades over the next couple of days, that's usually the case.

Edited January 6, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

downgrades have started already....

 

 We all know, from previous experience, what the models showed earlier today is extremley unlikely, it will get cold but nothing dramatic

Yes, the GFS shows what's probably the best situation for areas affected by flooding.  For us, dry and cool/chilly, with the return of wet, zonal westerlies later-on, though that's in Fi.

[Kent Blizzard]

Poor GFS 18z but how reliable as that been lately, last night etc.  I think we need to see the 00z tomorrow before we can rule anything out and even then it's premature, I stated earlier today by 23:59 the prams will fly.

ECM Ensembles give an ice day on the 14th for London.....bbbbrrrrrr

Edited January 6, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, steveinsussex said:

downgrades have started already....

 

 We all know, from previous experience, what the models showed earlier today is extremley unlikely, it will get cold but nothing dramatic

Have they really? 

The anomaly charts show what a jumble sale of a run frankly it should be binned, I fully expect a shift back in the 00z time will tell. We are most definitely not going to any south-westerlies in a long time. Open your eyes please, have you bothered reading posts from the likes of Tamara/Chio ect...

[Pixel]

Just woken up from a very warm hibernation and pondered or rather wandered toward the model discussion... cool... the weather seems to be the topic of the day this time of year, which I have to say is er predictably going to get colder - but is it going to snow or not?  Having no idea myself I decided to enter all the words copied and pasted from the model discussion into a web based wordle type program to find out :

 

looks like winter will happen again this year.. around... winter time.. end of Jan, early Feb for us southerners according to the folk over at model discussion (-:

PS here's the link to make words make visual sense (without Java script) http://worditout.com/

Edited January 7, 2016 by Pixel
link for the visually hungry

[Captain Shortwave]

A very wet start here this morning, hopefully the rain will clear here before I go to work.

A very nice day 5 fax chart with air cold enough for wintry precipitation already as far south as the Midlands and would clear the south coast by the evening.

[Blessed Weather]

7 hours ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Have they really? 

The anomaly charts show what a jumble sale of a run frankly it should be binned, I fully expect a shift back in the 00z time will tell. We are most definitely not going to any south-westerlies in a long time. Open your eyes please, have you bothered reading posts from the likes of Tamara/Chio ect...

Absolutely right Dan. It's a case of trying to enjoy the excitement of the chase, without getting too hung up on the twists and turns of every run. There's a reason looking at each run is described as 'riding the roller coaster'!!

This morning's GFS 0z is an upgrade on last night's 18z and even introduces the possibility of blizzards from the Midlands north on Monday 18th, with our Region getting a back swipe on Tues 19th with another northerly plunge behind the Low. But that detailed scenario will change too.

Mon 18th  Tues 19th

 

Here's what the 18z had for Tues 19th = mild incoming, no northerly plunge!

 

So for model watchers this is a fascinating period - try and squeeze maximum enjoyment out of it and don't write anything off (or on) after one run. Happy days!

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Absolutely right Dan. It's a case of trying to enjoy the excitement of the chase, without getting too hung up on the twists and turns of every run. There's a reason looking at each run is described as 'riding the roller coaster'!!

This morning's GFS 0z is an upgrade on last night's 18z and even introduces the possibility of blizzards from the Midlands north on Monday 18th, with our Region getting a back swipe on Tues 19th with another northerly plunge behind the Low. But that detailed scenario will change too.

Mon 18th  Tues 19th

 

Here's what the 18z had for Tues 19th = mild incoming, no northerly plunge!

 

So for model watchers this is a fascinating period - try and squeeze maximum enjoyment out of it and don't write anything off (or on) after one run. Happy days!

Sorry to y'all for coming across a grumpy man!

Warm sector and a half but would be fun to watch that unfold.  

A very wet start to the day lots of surface water, chucking it down right now and quite dark

must have had near 15mm in the last 24hours. A single good snowfall is all I ask, one which is enough to transform the London landscape, I have set my bar low.

THUNDER just heard right now! while writing this post. 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[Kent Blizzard]

Hi all

Only managed a quick look at the outputs so far today, I don't see any negative signs at all and certainly not worth worrying about if snow will fall out the sky at this early stage, the cold is the key and the rest will follow. We have seen it time and time again in these set-ups where we get ruled out and then boom a few surprises.

Horrible day here, it was so dark till gone 8am this morning with pouring rain

Give me a morning Frost, Cold, Clear, Dry & Crisp weather anytime...bring it on. We have gone so long with barely anything so this is a major upgrade imo and could be a pattern changer longer term.

The AO has gone off the rails with a Negative, when did we last see that? 2010!

Edited January 7, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Awful weather earlier here; at 9 a.m. it was only half-light, and it's only recently stopped raining.  According to NW radar, there's more on the way.

[steveinsussex]

12 hours ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Have they really? 

The anomaly charts show what a jumble sale of a run frankly it should be binned, I fully expect a shift back in the 00z time will tell. We are most definitely not going to any south-westerlies in a long time. Open your eyes please, have you bothered reading posts from the likes of Tamara/Chio ect...

Please let me post about downgrades so my reverse psychology works

 

please

 

thank you 

[Kent Blizzard]

8 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Please let me post about downgrades so my reverse psychology works

 

please

 

thank you 

LOL Steve actually I remember you doing this the same this time last year and I was struggling to work out why you was so down and grumpy about the outputs 

....Perhaps try a new tactic this time  

[Kent Blizzard]

UK Outlook for Tuesday 12 Jan 2016 to Thursday 21 Jan 2016:

Tuesday will be largely unsettled and often windy with showery conditions interspersed with some more organised spells of rain, and snow across northern parts, mainly high ground. The heaviest rain and strongest winds probably occurring in the southwest and northeast. From Wednesday a colder spell is expected to develop with widespread overnight frosts. There is likely to be a mixture of sunshine and showers, with the showers falling as sleet or snow to low levels in the north, and perhaps also in the south. As we go through the period unsettled and sometimes windy weather with mainly westerly winds will probably become re-established across much of the UK, although the colder conditions may be hard to shift

Updated at: 1357 on Thu 7 Jan 2016

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41

 

Pretty much as we have it with our own thoughts, still lots to play for 

[JennyJane1]

It has been very dark and miserable here for the last few days, a lot of rain has fallen, feeling chillier than of late, today the rain is incessant and the wind   is really hitting the windows in huge gusts.At  the moment the rain sounds so heavy its almost like hail against the window.

 

Can we not have snow till after the 21st?Thanks only I have to go on a long journey and don't fancy getting stuck midway in a snowstorm even though I do want it to snow sometime.

Just cooking some baked potatoes seems like good weather for it.

[snowray]

There are no negatives in the charts right now but as usual it is to be expected that we will have upgrades and downgrades going forwards. That Azores LP for example may never happen, but if it did it could produce heavy snow for some. Being area specific is almost impossible this far out, but we could get lucky with PPn and snow in the form of channel lows for example, or things may end up further South and its France that gets hammered. Eastern fringes of the region should do best from coastal snow showers though and more organised bands of PPN.

 

[Jo S]

Well didnt get much sleep last night with all of the heavy rain bouncing off of my windows, but the coldest day here for quite a while now, so my day off has been a lazy day, snuggled by the fire

[Captain Shortwave]

Well considering the rain should have gone by mid-morning here, the fact the front only cleared by mid-afternoon was a little disappointing. A nice sunny and chilly walk home mind you.

[Alpine glow]

Chilly today.  Brrrrrr.

I'm transfixed to the model discussion thread but i'm their worst stalking nightmare.  All I want to know is will it snow IMBY like 09/10?

I know, I know.  Let's get the cold in first..... 

[Jo S]

ha ha, yep, true Alpine, get the cold, its all FI until its nailed on, ah the ups and downs of the weather, getting fed up with this wind and rain though, desperatly want to see some white stuff,and get the snow cup going again 

[Kent Blizzard]

 

Look out for the Winter is over posts

Then slap them with this beauty for us....

Edited January 7, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[timboy666]

Alpine I would try stalking the model discussion but it all goes over my head!!  lol