South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[weathergeek]

It's definitely the winters of my childhood growing up on Boxhill that have entrenched my love of snow!!! We got a bus down to schools in Dorking so it was often cancelled through fear that it wouldn't make it down or back up the hill later!! I've had lots of pics on Timehop coming up of lots of fun in the snow when the kids were really little 6yrs ago and I so want that again for them! We went back up Boxhill last Jan just for the mere dusting that I knew would be there despite nothing down here!!

 

I don't have much model reading knowledge despite this being my 5th winter on these forums BUT I have managed to learn some rules and some of those are about the upstream signals favouring cold, getting that right first, the models flopping about a bit until they settle on an outcome and not looking for details (ie snow imby) until much closer to the time. I have to say I'm loving that we've nearly covered all of these now but can't help getting secretly excited and thought of some snow, just a bit would be great to see after such a long time and the greatness of the winters that preceeded this recent snow drought!!!xx

Edited January 6, 2016 by weathergeek

[Kent Blizzard]

I wonder if by 23:59pm tonight the MO will see the toys and the prams flying about and lots of hissy fits 

Let's get readdddddddyyyy for the 12z, eyes down and coffee in hand  the above prediction could happen a lot sooner after this LOL  However in this thread we seem mature enough to know that the up and downs will happen for a while yet and not to jump on the back of every run...don't we?....don't we?....don't we?

Think of it as a nice stewing steak, we want to do it in the slow cooker not flash fry it so it's cooked too soon

NOTE: Read this thread https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/51039-the-easterly-that-never-was-a-synoptic-recap/ it'll help to keep feet on the ground for a while

 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

I've always liked ECMWF:

 

 

[snowray]

Anyone spot this little beauty? Chanel low maybe, yes please!

[snowray]

GFS looking great! Wrong chart, thats from 06z...how do you delete them????

Edited January 6, 2016 by snowray

[snowray]

[Alpine glow]

8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Anyone spot this little beauty? Chanel low maybe, yes please!

YES PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

[Rain123]

On 1/1/2016 at 5:07 PM, Daniel* said:

Erm, why is this here? 

[Rain123]

Today was just grey and murky after the early morning mist. Meh. Rain inbound for tonight it seems. 

[Captain Shortwave]

Well today, weather didn't exist, grey, no wind and temperatures around average.

So after the rain tonight it is sunshine and showers for a few days before we see the pattern change across the UK.

[snowray]

Hellion there, major ECM upgrade this evening. WOW!

[timboy666]

4 hours ago, weathergeek said:

It's definitely the winters of my childhood growing up on Boxhill that have entrenched my love of snow!!! We got a bus down to schools in Dorking so it was often cancelled through fear that it wouldn't make it down or back up the hill later!! I've had lots of pics on Timehop coming up of lots of fun in the snow when the kids were really little 6yrs ago and I so want that again for them! We went back up Boxhill last Jan just for the mere dusting that I knew would be there despite nothing down here!!

 

I don't have much model reading knowledge despite this being my 5th winter on these forums BUT I have managed to learn some rules and some of those are about the upstream signals favouring cold, getting that right first, the models flopping about a bit until they settle on an outcome and not looking for details (ie snow imby) until much closer to the time. I have to say I'm loving that we've nearly covered all of these now but can't help getting secretly excited and thought of some snow, just a bit would be great to see after such a long time and the greatness of the winters that preceeded this recent snow drought!!!xx

Hi I know what you mean about Boxhill spent many good time going down it in the snow.......on my ass lol I work at Johnston sweepers in Dorking would be nice to get some snow so I could call a snow day!!!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Did anyone else see Dan Holley (staplehurst here on Netweather) on the local news this evening?  He was describing the conditions we've had for the past couple of months, ascribing them mainly to the cold SST anomaly in the Atlantic rather than the Euro high, then stated that there was no sign of significant cold.  He did say there was a chance of something a touch cooler around mid-month, but the way he put it made it sound as though he thought even that was unlikely. 

[Essexgooner]

I only lasted 5mins in the Model Thread, some people getting carried away talking of particular fronts, troughs,  snow etc coming in on dates like 21st, 22nd  23rd January ..... thats over 2 weeks away !!!  haha....be lucky if the models stay the same by this weekend let alone then, lol 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Essexgooner

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 5 charts

GFS/UKMO/ECM

 

We will get an interesting insight into what the metoffices are thinking this evening as we are now within the range of the FAX charts. I am looking forward to the day 5 chart.

[Methuselah]

I fear a downgrade!!!

[steveinsussex]

6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I fear a downgrade!!!

yup, fully expecting a big downgrade. Expect it will get colder but a brief northerly as we get closer to next week is prob what we shall get...

Edited January 6, 2016 by steveinsussex

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

 

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

yup, fully expecting a big downgrade. Expect it will get colder but a brief northerly as we get closer to next is prob what we shall get...

I anticipate a 2-3 day toppler.

[steveinsussex]

its nice to dream though

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

 

were did  i  put   my  snow spade  i might need  it soon if  the  gfs  is  right!!!!

[clark3r]

On 5 January 2016 at 2:00 PM, clark3r said:

Well I am pleased to say it is looking colder later next week,I am expecting nothing more than some frosts and colder days much colder than we been used too this winter! 

Hoping we get some snowfall next month!

******

above was my post yesterday lol, models have changed one hell of a bit today!

if they are still showing the same in the next few days then we will have a big freeze  and snow  current models are in line with Net Weathers winter forecast!!!!!

I really hope we get ice days with snow, people are going mad on the model discussions just hope they don't get too disappointed if this cold spell showing gets downgraded!

fingers crossed everyone we get a proper taste of winter next week with a good covering of snow we have all been waiting for  

Best models for ages  

[Nick L]

35 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

 

I anticipate a 2-3 day toppler.

Considering just last week you were saying winter was over, I think it would be fair to treat this prediction with a hefty dose of scepticism.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

28 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Considering just last week you were saying winter was over, I think it would be fair to treat this prediction with a hefty dose of scepticism.

Fair point - I may well have been totally wrong.

 

EDIT:  ...or maybe not - CFS says mild, wet February, and Weatherweb says this cold spell will be at most a 3-day cool-down with snow mainly over high ground, before a return to mild.

Edited January 6, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[bluearmy]

Downgrades?

will be cold and snowy or cold and frosty for at least a week. Either is a damn sight better than what we've had thus far. 

[Daniel*]

58 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

its nice to dream though

Universal model agreement here very rare,,that dream could and should turn into a reality. I do not see any downgrades which will affect us getting much colder temperatures.