South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[Jo S]

7 minutes ago, timboy666 said:

Alpine I would try stalking the model discussion but it all goes over my head!!  lol

ive tried that too, but way to confusing for me, i need a dictionary for most of the words on there lol, now im sounding really thick 

[timboy666]

20 minutes ago, Jo S said:

ive tried that too, but way to confusing for me, i need a dictionary for most of the words on there lol, now im sounding really thick 

Jo s I still think F1 is about racing cars! I hope to get better at the model discussions

[Essexwader]

On 6 January 2016 at 10:43 AM, Flash Elvis said:

Any idea's peeps...... anybody from the local area see it??

http://www.echo-news.co.uk/news/14184056.Is_it_a_twister__Strange_cloud_formation_in_Southend/

Yes, concluded it was water vapour caused by steam escape.

[Kent Blizzard]

46 minutes ago, timboy666 said:

Jo s I still think F1 is about racing cars! I hope to get better at the model discussions

FI Aka... Fantasy Island

[Jo S]

6 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

FI Aka... Fantasy Island

All it seems to be at the moment, we keep our fingers crossed,and tootsies too, going to get some at some snow at point, just dont know what year 

Edited January 7, 2016 by Jo S

[Kent Blizzard]

Cold=Tick, Frost=Tick, Snow=Slim and the reason is at this stage the 850Hpa's perhaps not cold enough however a channel low would give wintry mix on Northern edge so snow possible.

Basically regarding snow I'd say 25% chance and anything possible at this stage.

[timboy666]

just need the jet stream to move a bit more south on the 12/14

[Captain Shortwave]

Lets hope these are close to the mark, the Metoffice are using pretty much their raw data tonight which does go against other output at days 4 and 5.

Cold enough for snow by Tuesday with that occlusion giving a wintry mix, a rain to snow event quite likely if it came off.

Edited January 7, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[weathergeek]

I'm glad of getting the cold in and know that we might need a few days of it to entrench and maybe a second bite of the cherry later on but currently I don't see snow for us southerners next week....However I'm also aware of pop up snow events and things changing very quickly and as long as it's all still heading for cold then I guess anything can happen!!!x

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, Captain Shortwave said:

Lets hope these are close to the mark, the Metoffice are using pretty much their raw data tonight which does go against other output at days 4 and 5.

Cold enough for snow by Tuesday with that occlusion giving a wintry mix, a rain to snow event quite likely if it came off.

Good news. UKMO has been quite consistent I'm quite impressed, GFS on other hand has been bobbing up and down like a rubber duck. 

G'night All

[snowray]

Yes lets hope that UKMO are right, along with the ECM. Defo the favs.

 

GFS 18z a total flop again this evening of course, navgem seem to have sided with them so pretty high chance that they are way out!

 

 

[Ben Lewis]

The GFS 0z has hurt my eyes this morning. 3/4 day cold snap at the best before those disgusting Atlantic mild winds bring more wet and windy weather. 

If the ECM goes the same route this morning, those wonderful charts showing 2 days ago will be a distant memory!

GEM also having a bit of GFS this morning with that Azores low. 

Do we continue to chase rainbows or is the UKMO 12z correct? I'm going with the rainbow 

[Captain Shortwave]

A clear start here at the moment, a band of showers will move through the region a little bit later today.

[Essexgooner]

I do wonder if some people in the model thread want to get a job at the Daily Express at times going on charts that are sometimes in 2 weeks time and believing what they are seeing will happen, when will some people ever learn....lol, seems the charts are now falling into line with what the meto have been predicting, we will just have to make the most of what we can get out of this shortish  cold spell

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning peeps, cold crisp morning out in the sticks here touch of very light grass frost to in patches

Hate to say this re cold coming to UK a few members will rember me saying about how this winter is going to be a lot warmer than usual thanks to various factors. 

When the models first churned out the charts for impressive cold I took them with caution. Then I wake up this morning to see majority of models back tracking away from any major cold. In fact GFS is the worst of the lot never makes any real cold get to us.

There are so many factors (like I said above) impacting this year's winter that are not usually there (have been in recent winters)  it's just not the year! It's just hunch but I suspect to see the models flip back to a more westerly based set up once again as cold digs deep into the US (argh!!)

Hopefully, before this winter is out, we do actually get the cheery. This winter has been having a giant cake in front of you and only getting to eat the crumbs from others. Frustrating to say the least! 

If anybody would like to know why my opinions still stand I would happily explain  

 

Have a great day all!

[Blessed Weather]

Pale blue winter sky and a touch of frost on the lawn. Overnight low of 0.6C. Much better start than yesterday's deluge!

[steveinsussex]

So the downgrades really have started

[Ben Lewis]

Oh Well, Very poor GFS and ECM for snow chances in the south East compared to the last days runs. It will feel cold obviously though.

Northern UK has snow chances but forgive me if I don't start doing Cartwheels because it might snow in Newcastle next week...

Anyway its Friday... Weekend nearly here :-) 

 

[Kent Blizzard]

The models will chop & change for a couple more days yet they seem to always do that before a cold snap or a stormy set-up.

Not worth worrying about "will it snow" till very short range.

I'm actually pleased its the weekend as it means only a quick glance at the outputs for me at the end of it day rather than being hooked on them (Not very wise).

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

 

MAYBE a very slight risk of a rumble of thunder late for coastal counties

 

 

 

 

[Jimmyh]

there is so much volatility in the models at the moment anything past T96 which is Tuesday is pointless. We are all desperately looking east/ne but who knows wot will happen. Huge amount of mild ramping in the MO thread as well. people writing it off before it has even reached these shores.

one thing I will stick my neck oytu and comfortably say is that it will be a heck of a lot colder. So in less than a month we have gone from +10 to -4-8 over the south east a big change in the offing and scarf will be coming out for first time in 2 years.

I am desperate for a dumping of snow just so my daughter can behave like I used to with snow angels snow ball fights and a big snowman. a ramp is needed but I am at work but lets not lose sight of the fact that in a couple of days the damp dross is gone....  

[Kent Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

there is so much volatility in the models at the moment anything past T96 which is Tuesday is pointless. We are all desperately looking east/ne but who knows wot will happen. Huge amount of mild ramping in the MO thread as well. people writing it off before it has even reached these shores.

one thing I will stick my neck oytu and comfortably say is that it will be a heck of a lot colder. So in less than a month we have gone from +10 to -4-8 over the south east a big change in the offing and scarf will be coming out for first time in 2 years.

I am desperate for a dumping of snow just so my daughter can behave like I used to with snow angels snow ball fights and a big snowman. a ramp is needed but I am at work but lets not lose sight of the fact that in a couple of days the damp dross is gone....  

Indeed Jimmy, Well said 

[lassie23]

Very quiet in here considering there is sleet on the way. 9.3c and sunny

[Jimmyh]

lets hope it happens

will always remember 2009 started new day at work on the Monday nope I didn't started on the Tuesday.. wish I had gone down pub that night and had huge snowball fight.....

[clark3r]

Nothing to get excited about for next week, few days of average temps 5 - 8 degrees, I wouldn't call that cold! Maybe some frost at night! 

People all got over hyped with the models a couple of days ago, lessons learned anything past 5 days in the future don't take seriously as likely to change!