South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[PLANET THANET]

the forecaster on countryfile just now was not sure what the outcome from midweek onwards would be apart from saying it will be very cold, infact just as confusing as the models on the mod thread

[Coopsy]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Lots of weather coming up in the next week, interesting times ahead I suspect perhaps frustrating at times but all good things come to those that wait.

I think any heavier ppn tonight could have hail mixed in gaining a bit of oomph now over the channel 

Hi :-)

You never know a slight change in air temps and precip hitting the south east at the right time and it might be snow....fingers crossed

[Blessed Weather]

I have to say I think the prospects for the coming week are looking disappointing for any widespread or meaningful snowfall in our Region, although some favoured spots could see a couple of centimetres. On the positive side, for all of us it will at least feel like January, with seasonal temperatures and some very frosty nights. We are now within range of Meteo-France's High Res model and here is it's take on the rain/sleet/snow for Thurs 14th, our best chance of seeing snowfall. (And this afternoon's GFS 12z precipitation charts are very much in agreement with the when/where).

04.00   09.00    13.00 

 

By 18.00 on Thurs the precipitation has transferred out into the North Sea and on Friday any further outbreaks of snow remain off the coast.

18.00

 

And here's the accumulated snowfall totals for the UK from now until next Friday morning:

 

Finally, a couple of screen grabs from this evenings Countryfile forecast, which show Thurs temps disappointingly high at 5C to 7C for our Region and precipitation apparently as rain (showing blue).

So not looking great, but as always, a last minute unforeseen development could bring a surprise or two - fingers crossed.

[Froze were the Days]

5-7c for a supposed 'cold snap' is really nothing short of pathetic - in a 'normal' winter those temperatures would hardly be mentioned as anything cold. I saw the forecast too and have to say fairly underwhelmed but as mentioned it looks like messy synoptics later in the week so we might get a surprise, but can only envisage any snow settling on high ground or if the ppn is heavy enough over night with those daytime temps. Hopefully with some clear nights by the weekend we should at last see some moderate to hard frosts.

Coldest day of the winter here today with a daytime max of 7.3c!! - which tells you everything about this winter.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Froze were the Days

[tinybill]

Nice  line of showers  coming out of the English channel  heading our way

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, tinybill said:

Nice  line of showers  coming out of the English channel  heading our way

Not sure if "nice" is the right word haha! Could be a fair bit of rain from them 

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Lots of weather coming up in the next week, interesting times ahead I suspect perhaps frustrating at times but all good things come to those that wait.

I think any heavier ppn tonight could have hail mixed in gaining a bit of oomph now over the channel 

Frustrating sounds like the best way to describe the week ahead. Precipitation looking bang on the marginal line which means some runs will say snow and some will say no. A bit like the cold spells of last winter to be honest.

We will see how the models handle a few fronts and trough which look likely to happen between now and Thursday, Friday and the weekend could see some showers pushing in off the north sea if we get a northerly flow which is cold and unstable enough.

[clark3r]

BBC weather for the week ahead looks crap, thanks for the post! Think I have given up on snow this winter,yes I know we still hae feb and March,just don't think the snow we are looking for is going to happen, will hope for some suprises! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

BBC going "perhaps wintry element to higher ground as front moves East tonight" not sure where they are getting that from though 

[Hammer]

Hi everyone, colder week ahead, looks like Thursday and Friday may give some possibilities for snow. Hopefully at least a few frosty mornings if nothing else. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Quite a potent little shower on the Coast strike to good luck peeps closer to the coast could be a few flashes and bangs

[Daniel*]

32 minutes ago, Surrey said:

BBC going "perhaps wintry element to higher ground as front moves East tonight" not sure where they are getting that from though 

No wintry element unless you're cruising at 40,000ft with dew points several degrees above 0*C. 850's just below 0. The high today here was 8C, yet the blooming forecast goes for 7C on Friday WTF, indeed. It is a incredibly arduous challenge it seems to get proper cold in British Isles, in recent winters SE Europe ie. Jerusalem has seen a lot more than snow than us. Reminds you of those godforsaken winters. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[steveinsussex]

6 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

No wintry element unless you're cruising at 40,000ft with dew points several degrees above 0*C. 850's just below 0. The high today here was 8C, yet the blooming forecast goes for 7C on Friday WTF, indeed. It is a incredibly arduous challenge it seems to get proper cold in British Isles, in recent winters SE Europe ie. Jerusalem has seen a lot more than snow than us. Reminds you of those godforsaken winters. 

In the centre of London it probably will be 7-8 degrees

[tinybill]

So a very   heavy band of train heading  toward   london

Edited January 10, 2016 by tinybill

[Daniel*]

Just now, steveinsussex said:

In the centre of London it probably will be 7-8 degrees

Half that. 

[VillagePlank]

Snow risk from GFS 18z - assuming precipitation (!), given current theta-e and theta-w charts, is:

Mon 24%

Tues 56%

Wed 56%

Thu 82%

Fri 82%

Sat 82%

Sun 96%

The runs does look drier as we head into the weekend, then, so best chances, I'd say at this point, are Thu/Fri/Sat

Edited January 10, 2016 by VillagePlank

[Daniel*]

Brilliant Fax charts!

Decent for a good spell(s) of snow, 528 dam well to S, thankfully the GFS is alongside fax chart for +120hr which offered in excess of 10cm for London, could be some big surprises. Must remain close to the ground but you can't help but get excited. 

[Rob]

Going away from the talk of snow for a moment.

Rainfall totals so far this month becoming a concern. Here in Maidstone we've had 75mm since the start of the month. River levels earlier today were looking worryingly high and with some heavy rain overnight, the risk of some flooding is becoming real.

I remember the floods of Christmas Day in 2013, the weeks building up to the rivers burst I don't think we had much shy of 100mm, so we are closing on those figures again.

[Frosty hollows]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

BBC going "perhaps wintry element to higher ground as front moves East tonight" not sure where they are getting that from though 

Slightly to the west of you guys but we had sleet before the rain tonight at low levels

[Captain Shortwave]

Heavy rain to start here, not great to be honest.

[tinybill]

Looking  at the radar might need a boat  to  get to  work!,,

[NO LONGER POSTING]

So... Tomorrow evening detail will be getting ever better Wednesday we fine tune it but could be some pleasant surprises in here IF we keep the current setup the models are showing for Wed/Thurs  East could do VERY well 

[Blessed Weather]

A slight improvement from the ARPEGE model this morning. The best chance (at the mo) seems to be 08.00 on Thurs morning, with precipitation show as snow, dewpoint at 0C and 2m temp around +1C.

Not sure what model output you're looking at Surrey, but I hope you're right and we get a pleasant surprise. After last evening's disappointing Countryfile forecast, the professionals still seem downbeat. There was no mention of snow on this morning's Look East forecast and their graphic showed rain:

Edited January 11, 2016 by Blessed Weather
typo

[Hammer]

No disrespect to the BBC but your more likely to know the finer detail by visiting this forum than watching a rather generic forecast on BBC about the week ahead. I am not sure how many times it gets said but people refuse to accept it. Let the cold come in first and then snow always a possibility at some stage either in introduction or breakdown.

I am not expecting huge amounts or epic snowfalls, equally I wouldn't want to rule out at least some snowfall in our area. 

[VillagePlank]

Snow risk percentages for SE assuming precipitation at MSL

Edited January 11, 2016 by VillagePlank