South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

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6 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Phil Avery on BBC lunchtime weather has given me a little more hope to see some snow come Thursday.

White graphics over our region especially north of London. Areas further south were mainly of rain.

''a rain/sleet/snow mix right down to lower levels'' even in our patch he confirmed. But details were sketchy.

To sum up.. I think Northern home counties stand a 50% chance to see some of the white stuff Thursday morning if the PPN remains/turns heavier.

Nothing to suggest accumulative but even to see some wet snow fall, as pathetic as it sounds, ill take that over our recent snowless winters. 

We really do need the PPN to be heavy on Thursday for anyone to stand a chance of seeing the rain turn to snow.

Well...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good agreement on PPN if heavy is what your looking for we got it.. 

BIG difference on temps, I would like to also add I am upping the % again for snow in this current cold spell to 30% after digging a little deeper into the high res.. 

 

[Kent Blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good agreement on PPN if heavy is what your looking for we got it.. 

BIG difference on temps, I would like to also add I am upping the % again for snow in this current cold spell to 30% after digging a little deeper into the high res.. 

 

Not bad..... a 10% rise in a couple of hours & still plenty of hours ahead of us for that to rise again I'm sure 

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Just now, Kent Blizzard said:

Not bad..... a 10% rise in a couple of hours & still plenty of hours ahead of us for that to rise again I'm sure 

Indeed space to upgrade still or go all out the window, What we need to do in this current cold spell is work out where we all are and report as close as possible current temp, dew points, and humidity.. It will help immensely when people see snow IF they do and others don't 

[Jo S]

1 hour ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Are you using a mobile or tablet device? I get that issue when using mine or I get to quote the last person to post! On the laptop it's fine.

on my laptop, keeps happening, cant get rid of it, even if i log out

[Ben Lewis]

Just now, Jo S said:

on my laptop, keeps happening, cant get rid of it, even if i log out

Hi Jo,

Try signing out - Refreshing the page and then sign back in. That seemed to cure the problem for me.

[Kent Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Jo S said:

on my laptop, keeps happening, cant get rid of it, even if i log out

Logout and then try clearing your history and then sign back in

[Weather Boy]

Surrey, thanks for the advice to get my attention here.

Gathering the evidence together, and looking at the feebleness of the cold flow, I think that we can more or less rule out anything other than (at best) a transient covering, most likely towards the north of the region.  Worst case scenario seems to be just rain with the odd flake in over higher ground for good measure.

Happy to be proved wrong!

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Talk of Thursdays system that evoprative cooling may not happen because of the current setup and that it is a (deep-ish) as put depression. 

[Dami]

Well there is no doubt about it, if nothing else, the wind is getting a chill, much much colder this afternoon than i felt this morning.

Normally I feel out of place wearing my hat so I choose not too and my, did I regret it, my ears were freezing as were many others judging by the number of people now wearing hats. Looked like a bit of hail had just missed us as well.

Normal service will resume tomorrow, Can't be doing with cold ears.

[tesaro]

I think maybe a better than 30% chance of Snow falling . North of London with some elevation say 100mts or so should at least see Snow falling . Wether it settles at all depends on  ground temps, intesification  etc. Difficult call for lower ground further South but certainly not out of the question.  Had a heavy shower of hail here earlier which took 2c off ot the air temp in no time , albeit tempory.

[Snowman.]

12z so far shows promise as a front move NE stalling somewhere out west. UKMO would lead to something special.

But as ever a nowcast scenario is likely to arise.

Edited January 12, 2016 by SN0WM4N

[Jo S]

Ah here it comes, the rain again, t seen rain all day, i was starting to miss it.......... Not  

[Ben Lewis]

And once again.. I drove home from work in the pouring rain.. And to think this time last week the models thought I'd be experiencing frigid cold weather with sleet or snow showers by Tuesday evening! 

Proof right there that looking ahead by 7days+ means squat!! 

[Rain123]

Will we get snow? Will we not? It's so confusing. Today started bright but soon it clouded over and started to rain. Lovely.

[Snowman.]

23 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

And once again.. I drove home from work in the pouring rain.. And to think this time last week the models thought I'd be experiencing frigid cold weather with sleet or snow showers by Tuesday evening! 

Proof right there that looking ahead by 7days+ means squat!! 

No model was showing that.

[Ben Lewis]

14 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

No model was showing that.

I have no clue how to bring up past charts but I assure you it most certainly was. Just go back on the MOD thread and some models 7/8 days ago had us under a strong northerly with cold temperatures by tomorrow morning. 

Phil avery has just taken away all hopes of something white this Thursday. The white graphics have disappeared from his lunchtime forecast and he said you might catch a little wintryness if you were driving up to the Midlands... 

[Hammer]

Cold and at least some potential for snow in coming days.  Sure not looking epic but it's more interesting than December.

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

I have no clue how to bring up past charts but I assure you it most certainly was. Just go back on the MOD thread and some models 7/8 days ago had us under a strong northerly with cold temperatures by tomorrow morning. 

Phil avery has just taken away all hopes of something white this Thursday. The white graphics have disappeared from his lunchtime forecast and he said you might catch a little wintryness if you were driving up to the Midlands... 

Tomorrow morning not tonight we still have this weekend and probably next weekend. Trying to forecast snow 7 days out and expecting it is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

[Jimmyh]

Interesting right at start of the thread was 11 days ago and talking about a blow torch week..... Look at us now colder conditions and snow forecast somewhere in 11 days difference plus we were looking at 3 days of storms.... Seems like a while since then. 

Exciting times ahead shall sit on fence with snow although it felt different with a touch of sleet

[Ben Lewis]

26 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

Tomorrow morning not tonight we still have this weekend and probably next weekend. Trying to forecast snow 7 days out and expecting it is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

I'm old enough and ugly enough to know that 7 days+ never materialises - just as I said in my post above. 

You missed my point and confuse disappointment with frustration - this pathetic attempt at a cold spell in yet another snowless (so far) winter in the South East whilst watching the rest of the northern hemisphere freeze apart from us, I think I, or anyone actually does have the right to be disappointed! 

Let's hope the UKMO is leading the way for next week and I get to see some snow! If not its back to the blowtorch - ala GFS 

This weekend is going to be dry, North Sea coasts may catch a wintry shower. 

At least we should have a good few days break from the relentless rain after Thursday 

[Kent Blizzard]

27 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

I'm old enough and ugly enough to know that 7 days+ never materialises - just as I said in my post above. 

You missed my point and confuse disappointment with frustration - this pathetic attempt at a cold spell in yet another snowless (so far) winter in the South East whilst watching the rest of the northern hemisphere freeze apart from us, I think I, or anyone actually does have the right to be disappointed! 

Let's hope the UKMO is leading the way for next week and I get to see some snow! If not its back to the blowtorch - ala GFS 

This weekend is going to be dry, North Sea coasts may catch a wintry shower. 

At least we should have a good few days break from the relentless rain after Thursday 

Sorry Ben that's still very premature to write off this upcoming cold spell. It only takes an undercut of the first system then this could turn into something very decent indeed.

Have mate, you seem really frustrated....sadly that's what the weather does

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Daniel*]

Ben let's reserve judgement of the cold spell, it has not even started really, going by UKMO a long way off and to a lesser degree the ECM, despite GFS being Scrooge it does have a snowy breakdown.

[snowray]

This is a chart I posted on the 6th from ECM (T144), Sleet/Snow was showing for us in the SE for last night. There were other runs showing more snow but its been downgrades ever since of course.

[snowray]

UKMO has stuck to its guns though and 12z looks pretty damn good so all to play for.

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, SN0WM4N said:

Tomorrow morning not tonight we still have this weekend and probably next weekend. Trying to forecast snow 7 days out and expecting it is just setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Ben Lewis