South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[Kent Blizzard]

So Surrey are you saying we have no hope of seeing Snow what so ever? Just you start with that then at the bottom of your post you state based on the 06z we do?

Fair play if your going for no hope what so ever but then again I guess the odds are always in favour of a non event.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

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4 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

So Surrey are you saying we have no hope of seeing Snow what so ever? Just you start with that then at the bottom of your post you state based on the 06z we do?

Fair play if your going for no hope what so ever but then again I guess the odds are always in favour of a non event.

I am just trying to provide a un-biased opinion the the up and coming cold spell. While the models are favoring rain for the region I am not 100% ruling out snow but I just can't see it. Yesterday I was on 10% of anyone seeing snow and have now upped that to 20% HENCE why all my posts always have a SUBJECT TO CHANGE

I am a lover of all weather and am, IMO one of the most un-biased posters on here. The problem seems to be the biased weather type people don't like me and I get lots of PMs against it.

 

[Dami]

I don't think it will snow here. Then again it never does anything apart from windy and cloudy and rain at about 3;13 everyday. There isn't the bitterness in the air (at least yet). 

Still quite 'mild' for time of year, clear as bell last night and no frost and I live in the sticks.

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6 minutes ago, Dami said:

I don't think it will snow here. Then again it never does anything apart from windy and cloudy and rain at about 3;13 everyday. There isn't the bitterness in the air (at least yet). 

Still quite 'mild' for time of year, clear as bell last night and no frost and I live in the sticks.

 

I, last night clear is a bell but was due to the wind we had no frost but this will change frost certainly will appear over the coming week 

[Kent Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I am just trying to provide a un-biased opinion the the up and coming cold spell. While the models are favoring rain for the region I am not 100% ruling out snow but I just can't see it. Yesterday I was on 10% of anyone seeing snow and have now upped that to 20% HENCE why all my posts always have a SUBJECT TO CHANGE

I am a lover of all weather and am, IMO one of the most un-biased posters on here. The problem seems to be the biased weather type people don't like me and I get lots of PMs against it.

 

Ok mate, probably just the way I was reading your post.

I don't like to jump on the back of every output otherwise my view would be going back and forth from run to run. Although I'm called Kent Blizzard I actually like Mild Sunny Weather also so I'd like to think I'm unbiased. As stated earlier I do think we have a chance of seeing snow before this cold spell is over with.

I don't know why people PM you because you have a view, that's just silly and end the end of the day when you got someone saying no chance or someone saying we will get snow there will always be one person that's wrong, what I hate is the ones who turn up during or after an event and say " I told you so ".

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Just now, Kent Blizzard said:

Ok mate, probably just the way I was reading your post.

I don't like to jump on the back of every output otherwise my view would be going back and forth from run to run. Although I'm called Kent Blizzard I actually like Mild Sunny Weather also so I'd like to think I'm unbiased. As stated earlier I do think we have a chance of seeing snow before this cold spell is over with.

I don't know why people PM you because you have a view, that's just silly and end the end of the day when you got someone saying no chance or someone saying we will get snow there will always be one person that's wrong, what I hate is the ones who turn up during or after an event and say " I told you so ".

haha, one thing I will never do is go "I told you so" what I like to do after an event if we got it wrong is to review what happened and why! 

 

Lets just keep fingers crossed we have a turn of events and get some nice runs over the next few days for something more wintry 

[Dami]

yep I did notice the wind, but even that wasn't really cold either.

[snowray]

Unfortunately Thurs low is even further North this morning, as I have mentioned we wanted it further South and slow moving like the Low over Shetland. No chance now....

 

Maybe a few flakes late Thur into Fri but dogs chance.

 

 

[Kent Blizzard]

Just now, snowray said:

Unfortunately Thurs low is even further North this morning, as I have mentioned we wanted it further South and slow moving like the Low over Shetland. No chance now....

 

Maybe a few flakes late Thur into Fri but dogs chance.

 

 

Yeah, was hoping it would slip South and evaporating cooling could play apart in these neck of the woods.

[snowray]

How can ALL of the models been out that much I will never understand, last night over East Anglia, this morning over the borders!!!

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

Not feeling bitter, but certainly colder out there today in that wind!

[Kent Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Essex Easterly said:

Not feeling bitter, but certainly colder out there today in that wind!

Yeah, once them winds turn more NW/NNW/N/NE ......the feel like temps will really start to drop over the coming days

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Model discussion is about to go into complete break down...  STAY AWAY! The cold rampers are out in force! 

[Kent Blizzard]

15 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Model discussion is about to go into complete break down...  STAY AWAY! The cold rampers are out in force! 

LOL to be fair they probably just giving a little back to the mild rampers....that's the problem in MO type threads, people's own preference takes over rather than possibilities and facts.

snowray apparently you have travelled back from the future according to the MO thread ..IF that is the case could you let us know what is going to happen over the next week to save me wasting my time  

( This time of year cracks me up on NW ) 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

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18 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

LOL to be fair they probably just giving a little back to the mild rampers....that's the problem in MO type threads, people's own preference takes over rather than possibilities and facts.

snowray apparently you have travelled back from the future according to the MO thread ..IF that is the case could you let us know what is going to happen over the next week to save me wasting my time  

( This time of year cracks me up on NW ) 

Although I have tagged you into this comment by no means it it directly aimed at you.

I think a big problem when it comes to "what will happen" is many people are not knowledge enough to look deeper into what the charts are showing and more generally what it may lead onto. So really only reading the charts at face value.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

8 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Although I have tagged you into this comment by no means it it directly aimed at you.

I think a big problem when it comes to "what will happen" is many people are not knowledge enough to look deeper into what the charts are showing and more generally what it may lead onto. So really only reading the charts at face value.

Absolutely.  It's why I only post there when I have a small, self-contained point I want to make regarding the models.  I know that I'm weak on interpreting model outputs, so I don't attempt to post on wider-ranging ideas or make grand pronouncements regarding what will happen.

Edited January 12, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Kent Blizzard]

10 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Although I have tagged you into this comment by no means it it directly aimed at you.

I think a big problem when it comes to "what will happen" is many people are not knowledge enough to look deeper into what the charts are showing and more generally what it may lead onto. So really only reading the charts at face value.

I don't see the point looking past the next 7 days when we can't even pin point what will happen during the next 7 " cold spell " so I for one not really interested at what it may lead onto at this stage.

All I know with my limited knowledge is that we are at stage 1 and that's to get the cold air in, stage 2 to be confirmed soon

Edited January 12, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Jo S]

the brook has flooded yet again, work men standing there rubbing their chins, so i really dont need anymore rain, or i could get flooded, but hey a good dolloping of snow, would cover it all, much prettier, ah i dream 

every time i post i get my old post popping up, but anyway started to rain here, yet again, crispy  brook is still flooded, the ditch at the end of my garden is overflowing, getting really fed up with this rain, just want some good frosts and snow, not much to ask for is it lol, thinking it is now 

[Kent Blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Jo S said:

the brook has flooded yet again, work men standing there rubbing their chins, so i really dont need anymore rain, or i could get flooded, but hey a good dolloping of snow, would cover it all, much prettier, ah i dream 

every time i post i get my old post popping up, but anyway started to rain here, yet again, crispy  brook is still flooded, the ditch at the end of my garden is overflowing, getting really fed up with this rain, just want some good frosts and snow, not much to ask for is it lol, thinking it is now 

Are you using a mobile or tablet device? I get that issue when using mine or I get to quote the last person to post! On the laptop it's fine.

[Daniel*]

I see some back-edge sleet/snow for Thursday as a band of rain arrives even colder air is injected in see negative dew point to W of London heading east, although the precip may be missing or less abundant. I would expect to see on E4 some pink pixels if there was another frame.Sod's law most of the precip coincides with unsupportive parameters. I would say there's a high chance, in some parts of the region seeing some sleet/snow after the rain, which will consist the starter and the main course! 

There will be snow opportunities:

Edited January 12, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

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One thing I was anxious to mention but mod thread have now mentioned it. SST are a lot warmer than they should be this time of year.. Something the models don't pick up on and if the wind blows strong enough over these higher SST yes, you could get a VERY nice flow of showers, but it is easier for the colder temps to be mixed out (something again the models don't really pick up on)

It actually is starting to look VERY wet this week including today some hefty and possibly thundery showers starting to spark now.

[Kent Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

One thing I was anxious to mention but mod thread have now mentioned it. SST are a lot warmer than they should be this time of year.. Something the models don't pick up on and if the wind blows strong enough over these higher SST yes, you could get a VERY nice flow of showers, but it is easier for the colder temps to be mixed out (something again the models don't really pick up on)

It actually is starting to look VERY wet this week including today some hefty and possibly thundery showers starting to spark now.

That's why this morning I mentioned convective stuff will play a role.

[lassie23]

Looks like we will have to wait for the Yellowstone Super Volcano to erupt and block out the sun, then we might actually get a cold spell with some patchy sleet down here.

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8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Looks like we will have to wait for the Yellowstone Super Volcano to erupt and block out the sun, then we might actually get a cold spell with some patchy sleet down here.

To be honest not a bad comment !! Hahaha!

Problem with getting snow more so "down south" is that we are surrounded by "warm" water all year round. IF we had a cold end to November and cold December this up and coming cold spell would be much different... 

[Ben Lewis]

Phil Avery on BBC lunchtime weather has given me a little more hope to see some snow come Thursday.

White graphics over our region especially north of London. Areas further south were mainly of rain.

''a rain/sleet/snow mix right down to lower levels'' even in our patch he confirmed. But details were sketchy.

To sum up.. I think Northern home counties stand a 50% chance to see some of the white stuff Thursday morning if the PPN remains/turns heavier.

Nothing to suggest accumulative but even to see some wet snow fall, as pathetic as it sounds, ill take that over our recent snowless winters. 

We really do need the PPN to be heavy on Thursday for anyone to stand a chance of seeing the rain turn to snow.