South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[Ben Lewis]

45 minutes ago, snowray said:

This is a chart I posted on the 6th from ECM (T144), Sleet/Snow was showing for us in the SE for last night. There were other runs showing more snow but its been downgrades ever since of course.

Exactly my point. 

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Ben Lewis

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Looks wet soon West London quite a feed of ppn coming in

Edited January 12, 2016 by Surrey

[Captain Shortwave]

Quite a change on the model output this afternoon. It looks like we may stay cold well into next week. The timing of the cold air seems to be Thursday afternoon as the low clears. I am still interested in the occlusion wrapping around that low which could drive showers well inland Thursday afternoon shown here.

Any precipitation would be turning increasingly wintry as cold Arctic maritime air digs in across the UK. The initial front to be honest looks to be just the wrong side of marginal at the moment.

Another potential set up could come on Saturday with this system.

That could be close enough to pep up shower activity over the north sea and bring these into the region. With 850s of around -7C these would fall as a mix of graupel and snow.

A lot to look into in regards of snow potential with other features such as showery troughs could crop up in the nearer time frame.

Edited January 12, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Daniel*]

ECM Dutch ens really going into freezer.. 

 

[throwoff]

Wind is whipping up now in Chatham. Intensely cold outside as well. Still an off chance of some white stuff coming this week according to models, slight chance granted but anything over 0% is an improvement on last winter!

[Coopsy]

intensely cold is debatable lol. does feel a bit fresher though 

[Daniel*]

A cold wind today and yesterday from a slight northerly vector it is noticeable compared to of late. You ain't seen nothin' yet.

 it will be very icy and slippery on untreated surfaces, when all this standing water freezes over.

[Vince Coombes]

51 minutes ago, Nemesis said:

intensely cold is debatable lol. does feel a bit fresher though 

This is intensely cold .12/01/1987

[Daniel*]

Bodes well to see Chilterns & parts of North Downs are seeing some wintriness amongst the precipitation, anyone on the ground to confirm?  

[Mark Neal.]

5 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Bodes well to see Chilterns & parts of North Downs are seeing some wintriness amongst the precipitation, anyone on the ground to confirm?  

Was mainly rain here in East Oxford, sleety mix earlier according to mum who was out in it.

[stainesbloke]

5 hours ago, Vince Coombes said:

This is intensely cold .12/01/1987

Ha! I remember that cold spell well, so cold! Imagine that happening today. Even 2010 wasn't as cold as this during daylight hours in my area. 

Edited January 13, 2016 by stainesbloke

[Sparky68]

4c in Huntingdon when i left home at 5am , if anything it feels warmer today than yesterday.

[Blessed Weather]

Lovely start to the day. Clear sky and looks like we stay dry and sunny until later this pm. The overnight cloud cleared too late to allow temps to drop too far overnight. It was 4.1C at 06.30 and under the late clearance had dropped to 3.1C by 07.30. Now creeping up again. Quite breezy out there - it's going to feel chilly.

Might stock up on spinach today to re-build my strength for another 'round' of model drama next week!! 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

well well well.. 

Seems the models have decided to turn colder.. I mean.. much colder 

 

 

[Nick F]

Rain spreading east tomorrow morning, but reasonable chance of seeing some wet snow falling tomorrow afternoon even at lower levels in our region as the low pressure system crossing N England clears east  pulling colder and drier air south at the surface while showery bits circulate around the low. Chilterns, N Downs, High Weald, etc could see a dusting I suppose. 

Looking at the partial thickness tomorrow afternoon 129dm the max for the 850-1000mb thickness required for snow to fall to the surface, ideally below 129dm - so TICK

Dewpoints of 0C and below - TICK for many

For Friday, EC and UKMet fax charts shows a showery troughs moving SE later in the day which could bring some snow again to our region, particularly after dark, when it may even try to settle at lower levels

then the weekend is looking mostly dry, sunny and cold inland, as high pressure builds, though wintry showers along the east coast

let the nowcasting, sky watching, lamppost watching, etc commence!

Edited January 13, 2016 by Nick F

[NO LONGER POSTING]

10 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Rain spreading east tomorrow morning, but reasonable chance of seeing some wet snow falling tomorrow afternoon even at lower levels in our region as the low pressure system crossing N England clears east  pulling colder and drier air south at the surface while showery bits circulate around the low. Chilterns, N Downs, High Weald, etc could see a dusting I suppose. 

Looking at the partial thickness tomorrow afternoon 129dm the max for the 850-1000mb thickness required for snow to fall to the surface, ideally below 129dm - so TICK

Dewpoints of 0C and below - TICK for many

For Friday, EC and UKMet fax charts shows a showery troughs moving SE later in the day which could bring some snow again to our region, particularly after dark, when it may even try to settle at lower levels

then the weekend is looking mostly dry, sunny and cold inland, as high pressure builds, though wintry showers along the east coast

let the nowcasting, sky watching, lamppost watching, etc commence!

Nick, GFS had a low sliding down the East coast on Sunday I think it was. Given that SSTs are much higher for this time of year, surely we have better odds of the showers pushing further inland? However the downfall is that immediate coasts and little inland will be warmer (as usual) than inland areas but more so this time due to the higher SSTs

[Hammer]

Timmytour makes a point on the model thread that quite a few in here alluded to from experience.

"where a slowly evolving block to the east has developed and is far west enough, the models will always rush too much to push the Atlantic through and the block will prevail."

Sure it doesn't mean mountains of snow, but it does allow the possibility and an increasing risk of at least some snow.

[Nick F]

23 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Nick, GFS had a low sliding down the East coast on Sunday I think it was. Given that SSTs are much higher for this time of year, surely we have better odds of the showers pushing further inland? However the downfall is that immediate coasts and little inland will be warmer (as usual) than inland areas but more so this time due to the higher SSTs

Morning, quite a weak low isn't it, 1024mb! Think any showers swirling round it into our area would be pretty light  plus, like you say, GFS drags less cold air in off the N Sea as shown by dew points below rising above 0c (need below zero for snow to fall)

[Kent Blizzard]

Morning all, not had chance to view this morning's outputs yet, hopefully small positive steps?

[Kent Blizzard]

1 hour ago, Hammer said:

Timmytour makes a point on the model thread that quite a few in here alluded to from experience.

"where a slowly evolving block to the east has developed and is far west enough, the models will always rush too much to push the Atlantic through and the block will prevail."

Sure it doesn't mean mountains of snow, but it does allow the possibility and an increasing risk of at least some snow.

Hi Hammer

In the 80's when we had decent amounts of snow ( I was young ) looking back at the archives there was always many attacks from the Atlantic that was constantly being pushed back in such set-ups...Forums would of gone into meltdown many of time in them days.... so a very good point made by Timmy.

Edited January 13, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Get the Cold in and then Snow will generally follow...the most basic rule of thumb any newcomer can take onboard before taking note of nappy wetters in the MO thread lol

Sunday could be an interesting radar and observation watch

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/2016/01/13/basis06/ukuk/prty/16011712_1306.gif

Already leaves accumulations

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2016011306/102-779UK.GIF?13-6

Small adjustments is all that needs to bring us into the party on Sunday.

 

 

Edited January 13, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Just seen the latest Meto written forecast for London & SE, the next update again will be interesting and I reckon each day will get more exciting ( small steps )

Tonight:

Increasing cloud and strengthening winds will bring heavy showers to all parts. Then drier, but colder later. Possible wintry flurries in northernmost counties towards dawn with cold northwesterly winds. Minimum Temperature 1°C.

Thursday:

Cloudy and cold with rain or sleet, and perhaps morning snow. Becoming drier from the west in the afternoon. Strong northwesterly winds will develop with gales near Kent coasts later. Maximum Temperature 5°C.

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

Cold, brisk northwesterly winds with sunshine on Friday. Most places dry. Isolated showers, possibly wintry, on Saturday. Mainly dry, sunny on Sunday, wintry showers near Kent coast. Overnight frosts throughout.

Updated at: 0214 on Wed 13 Jan 2016

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41

 

Edited January 13, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Indeed it would seem the models are favouring some form of snow in the region, however, still 10 runs before we even get to the weekend so plenty of change and scope for improvement 

 

Snow % chance upped to 50% now in my eyes, up 30% from yesterday 

[Dami]

much colder this morning to the point I watched a lady de-icing her car and after years of having to do the same at 6am every morning in winter, made me remember that no matter how much I love snow, I hate frost. 

Hoping there is a little snow for bubs walk tomorrow morning, as she hasn't seen much snow, a little flurry would be great *prays to the snow gods* and would make her a happy little one.

 

[Hammer]

So we have the cold now, Fergie posted this little comment in Model thread with regards tomorrow afternoon / evening. 

"probability of snow actually settling to meaningful amounts in SE third of UK currently rated about 20%."