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South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

Captain Shortwave

By Captain Shortwave
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Alpine glow Enthusiast

Alpine glow

Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
Posted
2 hours ago, VillagePlank said:

So, looking at Thursday morning between 3am and 6am, according to GFS06z, and theta-e rule of thumb, the far SE is looking at approximately 6 inches of snow with a 84% probability - assuming this model is correct, of course.

precip.thumb.gif.a1ed956b4d0b74ba989e041theta-e.thumb.gif.05594f4da161541afa0c7a

Nice to see Brighton gets a piece of the action there too!  I imagine more confined to higher areas (such as the racecourse, woodingdean and the downs) but I am in one of those locations so happy!

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ReindeerMarmalade Contributor

ReindeerMarmalade

Posted
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
Posted

Just started raining here and I've gotta admit it almost looks and sounds sleety. Wishful-thinking, I know :) 

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Jimmyh Rising Star

Jimmyh

Posted
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
  • Location: Crayford/Baker Street By Day
Posted
21 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Just wear less clothes and it will feel more colder ;)

ha haha had me in sticthes

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Sparky68 Community Regular

Sparky68

Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
Posted

At work here in Milton Keynes and the temperature has dropped a lot even from this morning.

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted

Latest Meto Updates:-

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cold through this period with overnight frosts. Occasional showers throughout, which will turn to snow over high ground, and perhaps to lower levels on Thursday.

Updated at: 1442 on Mon 11 Jan 2016

UK Outlook for Saturday 16 Jan 2016 to Monday 25 Jan 2016:

The weekend will continue cold with widespread overnight frosts. Winds should be predominantly from the north or northwest, which could feed wintry showers across northern and western coasts. It should remain mostly dry inland, although there is the risk of occasional rain, sleet or snow showers. The start of next week should continue much the same, although more unsettled conditions are likely to spread in from the west from the mid week onwards, with temperatures returning to near normal. There is the potential for a period of snow before the onset of the milder conditions. The rest of the period should be changeable with showers or longer spells of rain, interspersed with some drier and brighter conditions. The wettest conditions occurring in the north and west.

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, interspersed with some dry and brighter interludes. The rain and showers are likely to be heaviest and most frequent in the northwest, with the southeast seeing the best of the dry and brighter conditions. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.

Updated at: 1442 on Mon 11 Jan 2016

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/u10khsx41

 

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
2 hours ago, Jo S said:

trying not to get excited again, ah the ups and downs of the good old British weather :p

99.9% downs:80:

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ReindeerMarmalade Contributor

ReindeerMarmalade

Posted
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Surrey/Hampshire border 86m/280ft asl
Posted
14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I did mention way back to people not to get hopes up over this coming "cold spell" if that is what you can call it... If we even see settling snow within the region I will be surprised... I just does not look like cutting it now, a brief frost Friday night into Saturday and that's it on the latest output! 

Yeah, I'd agree with that. Feels like it's going to be a bit of a damp squib for us, with MetO putting me at 4° at raining on Thursday and Friday. Hopefully some people in England will get snow and things will feel wintry but I'll be amazed if there's snow IMBY :wallbash:

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VillagePlank Seasoned

VillagePlank

Posted
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
  • Location: Rochester, Kent
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Latest Meto Updates:-

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Cold through this period with overnight frosts. Occasional showers throughout, which will turn to snow over high ground, and perhaps to lower levels on Thursday.

Updated at: 1442 on Mon 11 Jan 2016

 

I got there first, lol, and I only had crappy GFS to work with!

(it will all change, location, height, orography - the simple facts of the matter are that it's a really complex set of lows due to sit to our East, and even minor changes in their placement changes everything)

Edited by VillagePlank
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Dami Maestro

Dami

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy and thundery.
  • Location: Bedfordshire 33m above mean sea level
Posted

Just been out, low cloud quite dull, no wind and it feels 'refreshing' not too mild but not too cold, but you can feel the air is cooler mind.

half three and it's starting to get dark.

 

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)

Just seen the BBC South East weather video forecast, Thursday on higher ground some wintery flurries but refrained from saying "Snow" which was pointed out by the other news lady and a little giggle from Eleanor.... :D

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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throwoff Seasoned

throwoff

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Snow and more Snow!
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

I am looking at the GFS snow risk chart, it is certainly not 100% but this is the first thing I have seen since those falling flakes in early December

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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, throwoff said:

I am looking at the GFS snow risk chart, it is certainly not 100% but this is the first thing I have seen since those falling flakes in early December

I love snow, it is my most favorite type of weather because the conditions behind it are so complex... And I know how frustrating it is when your 0.5 degrees the wrong side for snow. I think this is going to be the problem this week. We are all going to be the wrong side of marginal then you go 50 miles North and it's fine!

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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, throwoff said:

12Z teasing something for our area Thursday morning

Indeed, Cold air filtering down quicker

gfs-2-66.png

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011112/gfs-2-66.png

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Kent Blizzard Rising Star

Kent Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny Days and a little Snow.
  • Location: Boxley - Kent 133.9 m ASL
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Surrey said:

See my above post Kent, for the same time at better res

850Hpa's getting interesting as we head into the early hours of Friday, the timing is going to be absolute key to my untrained eye.

 

Height/Temp. 850 hPa GFS Fr 15.01.2016 00 GMT

 

Also note the little low coming down the east cost

U144-21UK.GIF?11-17

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/U144-21UK.GIF?11-17

Edited by Kent Blizzard
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)

High res Arpege apparently the French equivalent to ECM! Has snow for most of us genuinely I'd be rather startled if none of us see the white stuff in SE before the cold spell is out this remains uncertain. Plenty of disturbances in cold flow, alas on marginal side but towards end of week this diminishes albeit turning drier a cheeky upgrade or two in potency would be welcome. :)  I do not feel the need to be pessimistic!

 

image.thumb.png.3234881f48ecf9c28c737106image.thumb.png.30f0f88af28403e098b42315image.thumb.png.bb9bc4b0e9972066f13a1e6fimage.thumb.png.803a2f9425fa154d3d9f40f4

Edited by Earnest Easterly*
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NO LONGER POSTING Veteran

NO LONGER POSTING

Posted
Posted (edited)

I just don't see it yet, hopefully I am wrong, deffo want to be wrong been 3 years from my last snow ball fight!!!! 

 

Hopefully can firm up details Wednesday, for now... Im not getting my hopes up 

 

Another factor for snow.. DP

Dew point GFS Th 14.01.2016 00 GMT

Dew point GFS Th 14.01.2016 03 GMT

Dew point GFS Th 14.01.2016 06 GMT

Dew point GFS Th 14.01.2016 09 GMT

You can have falling snow at around 1-2 degrees DP with right conditions but chances of it settling below a 0 degree DP are almost 0

 

Edited by Surrey
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Surrey said:

 

People we need to understand that the cold down here in the South will not be enriched and digging in just a brief blip. What it means is, any warmer air mixed in with PPN areas will win out.. 

 

I would say people 200m + have a 50% chance of seeing snow on the currentoutput

I'm sorry but I think you're having a wind up...Tut, tut.

Edited by Earnest Easterly*
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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

 

Tweet In reference to Thursday snow potential, yes earlier on the parameters are insufficient, but it turns increasingly more conducive for snow as we progress through the day - for snow to fall to low levels. 

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