South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - A new year

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 hour ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

I'm sorry but I think you're having a wind up...Tut, tut.

Not to sure, "reserved" is a better use of words 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Early frost Wednesday morning, then sunny. Cloudier later with showers, heavy, thundery near coasts. Mainly cloudy with rain and strong winds on Thursday, then colder, brighter and drier on Friday.

Updated at: 1421 on Mon 11 Jan 2016

 

From the met 

[Dami]

Just picked up bubs from rainbows, I would say it feels warmer out there now

[steveinsussex]

18 hours ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

1 hour ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

I'm sorry but I think you're having a wind up...Tut, tut.

 

Daniel, come on now, you are well known for your 'ramping'

 

He is only calling it as the models currently show, dont get peoples hopes up

[VillagePlank]

14 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:
Early frost Wednesday morning, then sunny. Cloudier later with showers, heavy, thundery near coasts. Mainly cloudy with rain and strong winds on Thursday, then colder, brighter and drier on Friday.

Updated at: 1421 on Mon 11 Jan 2016

 

From the met 

Now read the 5 day view (for the SE)

As I've already said, making calls on the basis of a very unpredictable set of LPs to our immediate East is pointless. However, for fun, I'll put a virtual pint on it, if you wanna bet that up here on Bluebell Hill I won't see settled snow at least once by Saturday morning?

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by VillagePlank

[Ben Lewis]

Gone are those upbeat forecasts of a Cold attack from BBC weather and some breakfast forecasts late last week! 

I watched the BBC national weather with Sarah Kieth Lucas... "Turning a bit cold" rain for London Thursday. 

"Feeling less like spring" yep they were the words she used!! 

[Daniel*]

47 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Daniel, come on now, you are well known for your 'ramping'

 

He is only calling it as the models currently show, dont get peoples hopes up

Thank you. 

Frankly you're rather cynical.

It is not ramping whatsoever when it is within 72hrs being modelled by high resolution models, and has a decent chance of verifying the GFS is a rather poor model, I'm not expecting folk to expect a full blown snowstorm.

 I interpret the models as what I see, it's not coming from a puff of air, clearly this clashes with Surrey anyway the proof is in the pudding. The ECM 12z only reinforces my thoughts, with at the very least some back-edge snowfall for parts of our region.

The forecasts I've watched are completely out of kilter and so are the updates, to be fair. I expect this to change in the next 24 hours. 

Edit: I was saddened to hear the news of David Bowie RIP 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[Captain Shortwave]

The ECM does bring showers in off the north sea Thursday afternoon with 850s falling, the showers are forecast on this model to be a mix of sleet and snow.

The ECM could bring showers into this region throughout the weekend with winds backing northerly and then north easterly so coastal regions in particular could see a dusting from any heavier showers.

Not rating our chances on Friday at the moment as the flow is north westerly and hence not a good alignment for us, that said embedded disturbances could change that.

Before that we still have that frontal system which pushes through Wednesday night into Thursday.

[Ben Lewis]

Philip Avery on BBC London news - said snow "perhaps" on the very tops of hills in the northern Home Counties Thursday morning.  

[snowray]

Could do with Thursdays low being just a bit further South.

Edited January 11, 2016 by snowray

[Captain Shortwave]

So Wednesday night

The 528 dam line is touching the coast of south Kent, everywhere is inside that line just about. The warm sector is pretty weak on this system.

850s

(around -3 or -4C)

Dew points

between 0C and 2C, not so good for Kent (3-4C). This is the worst point though as these drop below freezing during the day.

At this point my feelings are a rain to snow event on this front with the risk of snow showers potentially during the afternoon as the flow backs northerly with some decent convection. Very borderline but if we get some showers during the afternoon then some places might get a dusting perhaps. A lot can still change though.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Jo S]

the brook has flooded yet again, work men standing there rubbing their chins, so i really dont need anymore rain, or i could get flooded, but hey a good dolloping of snow, would cover it all, much prettier, ah i dream 

[steveinsussex]

 

Close, but no cigar...... for most of us

[steveinsussex]

Temps of 5 or 6 degrees on friday, not even looking 'that' cold anymore

[Jimmyh]

Do u get the feeling even the most experienced people are hair pulling. I don't remember quite so much confusion over a cold spell for a while. Given up now I look forward to low Chances over the weekend

[Froze were the Days]

Natonal and regional forecast at 10.40pm this evening was very uninspiring but not surprising - maybe some light rain turning to sleet/snow on high elevations briefly on Thursday with max temps around 5/6c and then towards the weekend brighter and dry with some hard frosts (what that wil be in this abhorent winter - just below freezing maybe?) max temps nearer to 4c by day.

Overall very disappointing considering the synoptics nearly a week ago - and high probability of back to south westerlies come some time next week.

[Daniel*]

T+120 fax is inspiring..

My geography is not fantastic but that is 7" for Peterborough from pub run - I'm sure Mr T would have some of that. Cambridgeshire, Norfolk being on the firing line. Just as good it's the GFS on the late night gin, with a drenching S of Ely roughly I do not fancy cold heavy rain.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*
Spelling

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning peeps!

Soo rain anyone? 

Still no real change in my eyes, this "cold spell" never really digging it's claws into us down south more so the further north you go.

But. We are still 2 days away from this "event" Thursday so all could change but currently I would say 10% chance snow 90% chance rain 

[Sparky68]

3c here in Cambs when I left home [ 5am ] so certainly getting colder.

[Blessed Weather]

Sure is a massively frustrating situation, especially when Breakfast News has a feature on New York digging itself out of heavy snow with up to 2 metres expected in the next day or two. Meanwhile us snow-starved Brits have to make do with watching snow falling from the skies in marginal conditions and struggling to settle. Maybe giving an accumulation of 1cm or 2cm before likely melting soon after precipitation stops.

MetOff continue to chose their words carefully, including this morning from Alex Deakin - "snow lying here and there on the hills", "a right wintry mix", "children will see snow falling, but not enough for sledging".

For the record, this morning's Arpege output. Note this model produces output at 1 hour intervals, so I've picked the 'best' hour's output for the 'most' of our Region which has shifted to Thurs at 14.00:

Rain/sleet/snow moving south Temp between +2C/+4C 

Dewpoint +1C

[Kent Blizzard]

31 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Morning peeps!

Soo rain anyone? 

Still no real change in my eyes, this "cold spell" never really digging it's claws into us down south more so the further north you go.

But. We are still 2 days away from this "event" Thursday so all could change but currently I would say 10% chance snow 90% chance rain 

I can see two possible chances of snow for the SE over the coming 7/10 days based on this mornings outputs.

If we do get a small window of a NE'ly for a brief time then convective stuff will play a role, if not then another opportunity when the mild air pushes in next week.

....Enjoy the ride

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 minute ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I can see two possible chances of snow for the SE over the coming 7/10 days based on this mornings outputs.

If we do get a small window of a NE'ly for a brief time then convective stuff will play a role, if not then another opportunity when the mild air pushes in next week.

....Enjoy the ride

Okay, I hope your right... But don't personally see it yet. Do you have the charts you are looking at?

Edited January 12, 2016 by Surrey

[Kent Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Okay, I hope your right... But don't personally see it yet. Maybe you might get snow in your back yard?

No doubt some lucky ones will get a dusting & others will miss out and dismiss the whole event.

At least this Month gives us all an opportunity to archive charts and learn from then further down the line no matter how frustrating cold weather chasing can be. I guess its like summer when 24°c is pleasant but some will want 34°c.

Its a very tricky forecasting period, you can tell that by a lot of the so called pro forecasters on social media that have all of a sudden gone very quiet and hardly want to comment. I bet the Meto/Beeb would do the same if they could!!

Edited January 12, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[Kent Blizzard]

Tomorrow starts the " cold spell " it'll be interesting once it gets underway to look back on the charts from the last 7 days and see how the temperatures etc compare to the charts.

NOTE: JFF but the Meto Forecast gives a snow symbol for Monday IMBY now .....but also with a NE'ly, 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Kent Blizzard

[NO LONGER POSTING]

LOL you know it really is a feeble attempt at a cold spell when the North are saying it looks marginal.. 

 

No hope what so ever for snow the odd frost maybe over the next week 

 

Thursday

 

 

 

Saturday

 

 

  

 

Monday

  

 

 

 

 

 

WRF says NO 

http://meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php?ech=3&mode=1&map=20

EURO4 says NO

 

So based on the 06z 

Rain Thursday maybe MAYBE some sleet mixed in... 

Saturday possibly some snow showers pushing into the very East of the region these will fall as rain on the immediate coast.

Monday, Snow to rain event.. perhaps some small accumulations before warmer temps push in 

Cold spell score based on current output 2/10 SUBJECT TO CHANGE

 

Backs my post up from Nick

 

 

 

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by Surrey