Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[nick sussex]

Oh dear another model stand-off. Very surprised by the GFS output, the signs were it would backtrack.

Unfortunately don't expect much help from NCEP they're as confused as the outputs , there are aspects of the ECM and GFS that they like and don't like but the issue remains any phasing/interactions between north Pacific energy and that coming out of the southern jet. The biggest issue is at day 5 over the eastern USA.

That update though won't include the 12hrs runs and we'll have to wait for the State forecasts when they update later.

 

[AWD]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the GEFS at D5 my optimism grows that the GFS OP could be barking up the wrong tree.

Bookmark this.  You saw it here first.  IDO questioning the GEFS!!!!  (Only messing IDO).

In all seriousness, whilst there are different options available on the table then all options should be considered.  The more supported the option, the more favourable that option becomes, simples.  

I'll leave you lot to fathom out the most favourable option.

[Long haul to mild]

12 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the GEFS at D5 my optimism grows that the GFS OP could be barking up the wrong tree. There are a vast array of options on the table and if they are a guidance I would say that GFS has no clue at the moment. The question is whether any of the other models have a clue beyond this time?

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=126

 

P5 has a nice look to it, bit of a NE'ly going on there  

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Long haul to mild

[gottolovethisweather]

9 minutes ago, IDO said:

Looking at the GEFS at D5 my optimism grows that the GFS OP could be barking up the wrong tree. There are a vast array of options on the table and if they are a guidance I would say that GFS has no clue at the moment. The question is whether any of the other models have a clue beyond this time?

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=126

 

Thanks IDO, that is a much more reasoned post and most welcome. If you're optimistic now I'm certainly glad to see it.

Edited January 10, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[Day 10]

Quite a few here at 144 which ain't too bad atall

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Minus 10

[gottolovethisweather]

12 minutes ago, pureasthedriven said:

To be fair, IDO does say this:

GEM verification up to D8 has been OK, beats GFS on occasions, it tends to get more unstable from D9. So you couldn't rule it out:

 

Indeed, credit where credit due and his latest post was more informative as stated. Must move discussion on now. 

[IDO]

At T180 a 33% cluster similar to GEM (to varying degrees), best example Perb 5: 

Smaller support than that for the OP and Control!!!

[Mucka]

The fundamental differences between UKMO and GFS are that GFS is obviously more progressive with a flatter jet but also GFS is bringing up the Azores low and phasing it with the Atlantic trough which helps send energy NE and flatten the ridge while UKMO has it supporting the block. GEM likewise does not phase this low.

120

144 (The Azores low is now the feature at the base of the Atlantic trough with GFS while it is held to the SW with UKMO)

There is solid support within GFS ensembles to bring this low into the Atlantic but many are a little slower which helps with amplification.

Given GFS has more forcing from the W anyway this added energy seals its fate, without it more GFS members would show a better solution.

I do not believe GFS is off on one here or can be discounted as it has continually shown a flatter pattern developing with Westerlies coming back in rather than a cold block and has been backed by the control and many members within its ensemble suite but that does not mean it is not wrong.

I suspect it will be more accurate than UKMO with the Azores low but less accurate with flatter/faster Atlantic pattern before that so something between the two solutions looks likely.

Watch for how JMA and ECM handle the Azores low this evening from 96 to 144 and also compare the amplification to UKMO and GFS at 120. That should give us a good idea where this will all lead. Will it be all gravy as with UKMO or a double whammy of progressive and phasing lows as with GFS or will it be something in between?

Edited January 10, 2016 by Mucka

[Banbury]

39 minutes ago, IDO said:

If GFS is right then we can write off January, assuming no ~torpedo~.

18 certificate stuff in FI, save yourself from nightmares tonight and don't get tempted.

GEM verification up to D8 has been OK, beats GFS on occasions, it tends to get more unstable from D9. So you couldn't rule it out:

Maybe worth asking Liam Dutton tonight how much faith they currently have in the GFS?

https://www.facebook.com/liamtheweatherman

As Darren on TWO quite rightly points out they areverification stats for the NH we are a tiny piece of that and the difference is naff all so saying  x beat y and a beat c is pointless really.

[Long haul to mild]

7 minutes ago, IDO said:

At T180 a 33% cluster similar to GEM (to varying degrees), best example Perb 5: 

Smaller support than that for the OP and Control!!!

HP over the UK does seem to be the logical conclusion and I'm fairly sure the UKMO would end up there too. Just can't see such a quick return to the Euro slug High and mid teen temps that the GFS is trying to foist on us tonight, it looks all wrong. Then again the GFS does love pressing "reset to default" whenever it gets a chance!

Mid level block eventually migrating to Scandinavia looks a more likely outcome; even GFS was showing this on the 6Z earlier.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Long haul to mild

[blizzard81]

This is going to be one hell of a depressed forum if ecm leans towards gfs tonight! Cmon ecm, keep the hope alive lol.

[J10]

5 minutes ago, Long haul to mild said:

HP over the UK does seem to be the logical conclusion and I'm fairly sure the UKMO would end up there too. Just can't see such a quick return to the Euro slug High and mid teen temps that the GFS is trying to foist on us tonight, it looks all wrong. Then again the GFS does love pressing "reset to default" whenever it gets a chance!

Mid level block eventually migrating to Scandinavia looks a more likely outcome; even GFS was showing this on the 6Z earlier.

A spell of cold followed by some dry settled weather, I'd settle for that.

[Harsh Climate]

GFS essembles doesn't have a clue.

 

I would happily take perturbation 4 please

 

 

[Froze were the Days]

£50 of my money says we have a 'half way house' ecm tonight with high pressure in control of the weather after 144z and the atlantic staying put for the moment, any takers?

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

£50 of my money says we have a 'half way house' ecm tonight with high pressure in control of the weather after 144z and the atlantic staying put for the moment, any takers?

Think you could be right. 

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

GFS essembles doesn't have a clue.

 

I would happily take perturbation 4 please

 

 

The warm witch on her broom stick 

Edited January 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

Just now, Froze were the Days said:

£50 of my money says we have a 'half way house' ecm tonight with high pressure in control of the weather after 144z and the atlantic staying put for the moment, any takers?

I was thinking this but I wouldn't be surprised to see a raging easterly  wishful thinking?

[chris55]

The scatter starts at 120, until we start to get some clustering around 16-17-18 the rest of the suit is questionable.

[stratty]

Just now, chris55 said:

The scatter starts at 120, until we start to get some clustering around 16-17-18 the rest of the suit is questionable.

Some tasty spikes in precip if we can get the temps low enough for the end of the week  

[johnholmes]

20 minutes ago, Banbury said:

As Darren on TWO quite rightly points out they areverification stats for the NH we are a tiny piece of that and the difference is naff all so saying  x beat y and a beat c is pointless really.

not at all, it is not that often one model is so far out near the UK but correct for the rest of the northern hemisphere. The stats are for the upper air pattern NOT the surface, long wave patterns are not minor peturbations.

[Nouska]

I'll just include the 12Z run of the French ARPEGE for comparison - it is a short range, very high res model and only goes out to 114 hours.

    

For those who have never heard of this model, it verifies on a par with ECM and UKMO.

[Connor Bailey Degnan]

GFS 12z was an upgrade in the short term,with snow settling a distinct possibility even to lower levels from Thursday, however by late Sunday the atlantic finally wins the battle. I feel the gfs may well be cutting the cold off to quickly so could be interesting to say the least on the ecm tonight. Dew points, isotherm and uppers much better from snow thursday to saturday  chin up snow lovers! 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I'll just include the 12Z run of the French ARPEGE for comparison - it is a short range, very high res model and only goes out to 114 hours.

    

For those who have never heard of this model, it verifies on a par with ECM and UKMO.

Very UKMO esque 

[snowking]

3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I'll just include the 12Z run of the French ARPEGE for comparison - it is a short range, very high res model and only goes out to 114 hours.

    

For those who have never heard of this model, it verifies on a par with ECM and UKMO.

I've also seen it cited relatively regularly by Mr. Fergusson via the Met Office's forecaster summary in short-range scenarios with high uncertainty so it's been great to see that added to Meteociel this season.

SK

[Mair Snaw]

1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

3 minutes ago, Nouska said:

I'll just include the 12Z run of the French ARPEGE for comparison - it is a short range, very high res model and only goes out to 114 hours.

    

For those who have never heard of this model, it verifies on a par with ECM and UKMO.

Not for the first time, this is not the thread for discussing MetO updates. Please follow the guidelines.

So basically its every model V the GFS......?? the GFS has to be wrong... surely the rest of the worlds models cant be out done by the GFS??