Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[mountain shadow]

ECM now backs the GFS with returning Westerlies next week. Ukmet supported by lesser models so unlikely to verify. GFS ops runs have been more consistent in the Atlantic returning through next weekend and has performed well IMO.

So a cold week ahead. Wintry showers for favoured spots and widespread frosts. 

 

[chris55]

Quite a consistent 00z to 12z from ECM. Very much looking forward to some really cold crisp days and frosty nights.

Where we then move onto will need way more runs, but watching the Azores Low move up from the far south west right from the start of the run is fascinating. This could potentially provide the energy needed to prop up what looks like being a very chilly UK high, and even undercut it into Europe being the catalyst to pull a cold easterly our way!

Something Ill be watching for sure.

[Chris K]

Some bitter nights likely under that High pressure and I feel that although some minor adjustments will occur beforehand, I think the 'next step' is to see what happens after this.

In my view, there are multiple plausible outcomes, which depends on how the Jet behaves. Too strong and not aligned in our favor, then it may push the HP into Europe too far South and result in a spell of more westerly influence to our weather. However, there's every possibility it could shift more North/NE towards Scandinavia. 

Plenty to be resolved before then though and to be honest I think many here would be happy with a crisp, dry UK high rather than an immediate return to something wet and mild.

 

[john mac]

The ukmo has been consistent throughout but had it been consistently wrong? I'm going with the ukmo and the meto seem to go with it too!

[Captain Shortwave]

5 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Hate to say it but a nod towards the GFS from the ECM this evening although the ECM keeps the cold for a bit longer.... 

 

 

 

Fair to say it is not a good run in the mid range. The Azores low again trying to be a pain by dragging the Canadian trough further east and then phases it with the core low heights over the pole. The result a resurgent lobe of the polar vortex over Greenland.

All I can say is at least we have have a high level of uncertainty on that Azores low still and it could still be modelled differently, in fact like the UKMO.

At least at this point 

In the earlier time frames still a lot of fiddly systems to sure up on from a "will it snow" perspective with any precipitation becoming increasingly likely to fall as snow as we go from Thursday onwards. There will be of course some hard frosts too as high pressure builds through the UK.

We haven't hit rock bottom just yet.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Nouska]

3 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

It's fair to say that we are not going to see eye to eye over the coming set up going into the mid-range, well until the models agree of course.

Unfortunately no MJO update from the GFS and ECMWF so I will just use the MJO predictions from the pair as it does kin of explain some of the divergence.

Great post Captain  - cropped for quoting.

Significant change in the GEFS on latest update: previously doing acrobatics in phase 8 only - now progressing through phase one before looping back. We might even be seeing some consensus with MJO modelling but will this translate to the daily NWP.

[radiohead]

ECM sending the cold air down to Greece, Italy, Turkey. Major southwesterlies for us. Thankfully this is a long way off still...

 

 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Is it Nick? Or is it more matter of whether-or-not the Arctic (whether of maritime or Continental origin) air has sufficient momentum? Later in the year, I think it will have; but, now, it could well be a matter of our needing two (maybe three?) bites at the cherry?

Momentum is synoptically driven. Both the GFS and ECM eventually drive the car over the cliff! lol  Take a look at the NH perspective and see how the UKMO avoids phasing that Azores low.

[booferking]

Were did all these black holes go that were on the charts in Greenland just a few days a go crazy looks like a cold week then back to the same crap we have been seeing for 2 Months honestly parts of Ireland can,t take anymore water

And the Euro slug appears again at the end of the run long way off might not verify but OMG please no more of this.

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by booferking

[chicken soup]

Hard to believe that the GFS has made the other models look like chumps, but it has..all we have to look forward to now is a sleety horrible mix thurs fri, followed by boring high pressure for a few days, then back to vile westerlies or south westerlies....just hope and pray GPs torpedo comes to the rescue now.

[Frosty.]

Let's just enjoy the week ahead, some of us are going to have a covering of snow which could last several day due to sharp overnight frosts. Even the progressive Gfs 12z shows very interesting weather for coldies nationwide through the second half of the week and as for the further outlook, that isn't set in stone either way so just enjoy the cold while it lasts!..I will.

[snow mad]

Long way back to cold from here! Hope this doesn't happen

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Momentum is synoptically driven. Both the GFS and ECM eventually drive the car over the cliff! lol  Take a look at the NH perspective and see how the UKMO avoids phasing that Azores low.

So, phasing notwithstanding, we agree - at the moment, Arctic air-masses have insufficient momentum to take control??

[Mucka]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The cold hangs on in the se until T192hrs. The surface flow would be off a very cold mainland Europe. But the Azores low phasing is the big issue this evening.

This Azores low has hung around like a bad smell and seems to be waiting for an opportunity to get in on the act.

The differences moving forward between the UKMO and the rest is huge because the UKMO could swing that PV lobe even further nw at T168hrs.

Again though the Azores low is only an issue because of those differences upstream. I think at this point for ones own sanity its best to accept the ECM as the likelier solution and if theres a change great.

Perhaps but I think this low phasing earlier has a big impact on the energy distribution thereafter.

Check JMA and ECM 120, if anything JMA looks better and it is certainly much better than GFS but..

It brings up the Azores trough by 132.

Here is JMA jet profile at 120 before the phasing and at 168 after. Sure the jey is firing up across the Atlantic but most of the energy has now been directed East rather than a split flow. I believe this is due to the phasing of the Azores low.

 

Here are 132 and 168 pressure charts showing the phasing and its effects

So yes it is certainly only one piece of the puzzle and GFS is more progressive anyway but also even with a more amplified pattern it will be very difficult to maintain it if that Azores low phases with Atlantic energy at this crucial point in the development of any ridge.

 

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Mucka

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, snow mad said:

Long way back to cold from here! Hope this doesn't happen

be back to dec if that comes off,good job it 10 days away and wont verify anyway.

[J10]

On 09/01/2016 at 5:42 PM, J10 said:

Shouldn't we wait and see until Friday/Saturday next week whether or not GFS or UKMO were better in their predictions. Then we can justifiably check to see which is correct/more accurate.

I made this post yesterday, but I think the point still stands.

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Hard to believe that the GFS has made the other models look like chumps, but it has..all we have to look forward to now is a sleety horrible mix thurs fri, followed by boring high pressure for a few days, then back to vile westerlies or south westerlies....just hope and pray GPs torpedo comes to the rescue now.

We are far away from agreement on the week after next. Enjoy the cold spell next week. Barring a pesky mild sector in your location, you may well see some snowfall in the form of showers or back edge frontal stuff. Either way it'll be frigid overnight and much more seasonal. High pressure in winter after a cold spell = cold and clear with hard frosts. Winter, no?

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Hard to believe that the GFS has made the other models look like chumps, but it has..all we have to look forward to now is a sleety horrible mix thurs fri, followed by boring high pressure for a few days, then back to vile westerlies or south westerlies....just hope and pray GPs torpedo comes to the rescue now.

Ugh! Ecm really dampening the atmosphere tonight. All very dull for coldies I am afraid. What happened to that huge siberian high shown at T240 on this mornings ecm op? Really poor model performance these last few days! I really do fear for the rest of this month now, my favourite month for snow. Another bad sign is GP seems to have gone awol!

[chris55]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Momentum is synoptically driven. Both the GFS and ECM eventually drive the car over the cliff! lol  Take a look at the NH perspective and see how the UKMO avoids phasing that Azores low.

Cause or effect?

Though as you rightly point out UKMO has the Azores Low well clear of the West Greenland lobe.

[Stormeh]

GFS going for a SSW at the end of January, this may give us a better shot and a decent cold spell as we head through Febuary. 

[cyclonic happiness]

I doubt the polar vortex could get so organised so quickly as the ECM is showing in FI.

I'll just stick with this week and see what happens.

Remember 2010, when the warm breakdown kept on getting pushed further and further back? 

We should have around 5 days of brilliant cold and hopefully snow, which is more than some of us have had in almost 3 years. Sit back, enjoy, build lots of snowmen, post thousands of pictures on here 

[chicken soup]

1 minute ago, CAPE-steve said:

We are far away from agreement on the week after next. Enjoy the cold spell next week. Barring a pesky mild sector in your location, you may well see some snowfall in the form of showers or back edge frontal stuff. Either way it'll be frigid overnight and much more seasonal. High pressure in winter after a cold spell = cold and clear with hard frosts. Winter, no?

Hope your right about the snow....but cant help but feel let down after what the models have been showing last week...we,ve gone from a holy grail greenland high to the usual marginal set up....yes cold and frosty is better than wet and mild...BUT I WANT SOME PROPER SNOW.

[john mac]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I doubt the polar vortex could get so organised so quickly as the ECM is showing in FI.

I'll just stick with this week and see what happens.

Remember 2010, when the warm breakdown kept on getting pushed further and further back? 

We should have around 5 days of brilliant cold and hopefully snow, which is more than some of us have had in almost 3 years. Sit back, enjoy, build lots of snowmen, post thousands of pictures on here 

Agree!! I think we're getting too far ahead of ourselves. I'm looking forward to this week it's been along time coming!!

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Cause or effect?

Though as you rightly point out UKMO has the Azores Low well clear of the West Greenland lobe.

The problem is the 12z ukmo is a slight downgrade on it's 00z this morning. What does that tell you?

[Liam J]

Ironic but the ECM now brings in warmer 850's than the GFS, by day 10 the 850's are over 10 degrees higher on the ECM vs the GFS!! All very much FI though... Find it hard to believe if it turns out the GFS has been on the right track the last couple of days with the flatter pattern returning.... ECM OP may well be a outlier yet. 

Let's focus on the positives - instead of looking for the end of the cold spell before it's even started - it's going to get progressively colder this week with hard frosts & ice days with crisp winter scenes, even some snow for some of us, perfect after the horrific December!!