Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[weather eater]

Can't say I'm surprised that the ECM has now trended substantially towards the GFS. Whatever the verification stats might say and contrary to  the general consensus opinion the GFS just seems to handle these types of scenarios better than the Euros. If the GFS is too progressive with the Atlantic then the Euros are too progressive with blocking. However, there is still much resolve in the post 120hr period and the synoptics never stop evolving, a return to the blow torch is not set in stone.

 

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

5 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Most if not all models now showing a breakdown of this cold pattern so not much hope from me. Even todays UKMO shows the cold will hang on an extra day or 2 before the warmer air returns. Thursday seems the best day of the bunch with snow chances for most areas. Such depressing charts compared to the ones we were seeing 4/5 days ago  

You may well be correct mate, but worth remembering that the cold spell hasn't even begun yet and past history has shown that cold air at the surface is quite hard to shift even if the upper temperature are on the rise in fi. With the spread shown on the gfs ensembles and the ukmo showing a quite different scenario i feel it is too early to believe the end games shown by the gfs or ecmwf are a done deal yet. The output could flip tomorrow. You never know. Let's just enjoy the cold this week as us collies have been waiting months and months for this. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Grimsby Snow Lover

[ANYWEATHER]

4 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Most if not all models now showing a breakdown of this cold pattern so not much hope from me. Even todays UKMO shows the cold will hang on an extra day or 2 before the warmer air returns. Thursday seems the best day of the bunch with snow chances for most areas. Such depressing charts compared to the ones we were seeing 4/5 days ago  

Hello ,Welcome to this Amazing place , enjoy

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, marksiwnc said:

Seriously???  It said high pressure looks set for the weekend to bring drier conditions.  Anyhow it will change again I'm sure 

Yes, agreed. HP situated just to the south of the UK.

[Kieran]

1 minute ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

You may well be correct mate, but worth remembering that the cold spell hasn't even begun yet and past history has shown at cold air at the surface is quite hard to shift even if the upper temperature are on the rise in fi. With the spread shown on the gas ensembeles and the ukmonshowing a quite different scenario in feel it is too early to believe the end games shown by the gfs or ecmwf are a done deal yet. The output could flip tomorrow. You never know. Let's just enjoy the cold this week as us collies have been waiting months and months for this. 

Yeah good point, hopefully another shift in the models will happen soon (hopefully towards the UKMO solution). Just hope a change in pattern happens soon as its starting to look inevitable that we will be back in warmer air next week

[SLEETY]

Just now, Kieran said:

Most if not all models now showing a breakdown of this cold pattern so not much hope from me. Even todays UKMO shows the cold will hang on an extra day or 2 before the warmer air returns. Thursday seems the best day of the bunch with snow chances for most areas. Such depressing charts compared to the ones we were seeing 4/5 days ago  

yes but none of those charts were in the reliable time-frame ,so always liable to change ,but it never seems any really cold looking charts past 5-6 days seem to materialise anyway  ,what we have now is just average for jan,not even a cold spell if the latest temps shown are correct later in the week,today was just as cold as the temps shown later in the week,what a shame from what even the met office tweeted a few days ago ,oc in the north and 4c in the south from wed onwards next week  not happening now .

[nick sussex]

The ECM postage stamps are all over the place at T120hrs. Although we don't get the upstream view you can see by the placement of high pressure there how the evolutions might be different to what the operational run does:

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016011012!!/

[karlos1983]

ECM ENS for 168, 

 

[Kieran]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

yes but none of those charts were in the reliable time-frame ,so always liable to change ,but it never seems any really cold looking charts past 5-6 days seem to materialise anyway  ,what we have now is just average for jan,not even a cold spell if the latest temps shown are correct later in the week,today was just as cold as the temps shown later in the week,what a shame from what even the met office tweeted a few days ago ,oc in the north and 4c in the south from wed onwards next week  not happening now .

At this point I would happily take a covering of snow for the midlands then the cold spell can be replaced by warmer air which now looks odds on. Im allready looking ahead to next potential colder weather. Hopefully it will be a cold spell rather than cold snap :\

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM postage stamps are all over the place at T120hrs. Although we don't get the upstream view you can see by the placement of high pressure there how the evolutions might be different to what the operational run does:

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016011012!!/

Cluster 3, members 31&34 please. 

[Southender]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM ENS for 168, 

 

Looks good to me. A very cold high to see the week out with some clear frosty mornings and hopefully a little dusting of snow being preserved.

[london and south east kent]

what is all the doom getting colder next week with hard frosts and some snow bbc weather said  no warm up next weekend and staying cold in to week two.

Edited January 10, 2016 by london and south east kent

[SLEETY]

Just now, london and south east kent said:

what is all the doom getting colder next week with hard frosts and some snow bbc weather said  no warm up next weekend and staying cold in to week two.

if only thats from few days ago that meto chart

 

[ukpaul]

Trend goes up from the 18th but, before that, ensembles suggest -6 850s for London from 14th to 18

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Shrimper said:

Looks good to me. A very cold high to see the week out with some clear frosty mornings and hopefully a little dusting of snow being preserved.

Yeah I'm happy with that. If we can prolong it further then great, if not oh well, either way a nice winters week ahead. 

[Stuie]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Check out the mean jet ECM from 00z T192 and  12zT180

says all you need to know about the current direction of travel re the northern arm

 

Glad you mentioned the JS as that is what I have been looking at tonight (and have posted comments). Being a pretty major player in our weather it only seems to get mentioned when it dives South of the UK (bringing in colder air for newer observers) but slightly dismissed if it goes the other way. Currently projected to go pretty much North/South over the UK at the weekend which is better that West/East but does/could stem colder PM air getting to us.

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Cluster 3, members 31&34 please.

Lol! Yes I can see why with you being in Dorset. For me here I like the ones with the high orientated more ne/sw further to the nw of the UK. Those likely to topple towards Scandi and pull in a  colder ne flow which is a great set up for down here.

[radiohead]

Surprisingly strong signal for southwesterlies on the ECM ENS mean, backing up the det. Hopefully this is wrong.

The det in comparison :

[chris55]

15 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM postage stamps are all over the place at T120hrs. Although we don't get the upstream view you can see by the placement of high pressure there how the evolutions might be different to what the operational run does:

http://old.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/teasers/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!120!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2016011012!!/

Fascinating looking through those Nick, there's a few in there that push the Azores low under the High, 28 and 34 are nice.

But overall lots of options.

Edited January 10, 2016 by chris55

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Trend goes up from the 18th but, before that, ensembles suggest -6 850s for London from 14th to 18

As I understand that graph, the operational is an outlier from the 18th onwards, though the ensemble spread does head slightly milder.

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Lol! Yes I can see why with you being in Dorset. For me here I like the ones with the high orientated more ne/sw further to the nw of the UK. Those likely to topple towards Scandi and pull in a  colder ne flow which is a great set up for down here.

That'll do too. I think if we look back on the past few days exhausting model watching, I can't look past +120 with any degree of certainty. I'm pretty convinced more twists to come, whether or not they turn out favourably is another matter.

Ps. Do the postage stamps only go out to 120? 144 would have been ideal after today's 12z 

[Turnedoutniceagain]

By my reckoning, FI is about 5pm on Wednesday

[chris55]

yea postage stamps from ECM only out to day 5 .

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by chris55

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Fascinating looking through those Nick, there a few in there that push the Azores low under the UK High, 28 and 34 are nice.

But overall lots of options.

Looking at the ECM spreads at T192 and T216hrs the 850's spread is quite large running ne from me here in sw France. This suggests theres a cluster which pull colder air in from the ne and have the high further north.

The high near the UK in the outlook is a good bet but just how far north it could be could still change.

[Man With Beard]

So personally I think the way forward is clear - colder tomorrow, then what I'd call a proper cold spell starting Thursday until at least Sunday, with a few snow opportunities at the beginning particularly in the north.

How long it lasts depends on how far high pressure penetrates towards Iceland at around T72-T120 . Good penetration and it could last well into next week as the high slowly topples, though likely dry. Slightly less penetration would mean a gradual warm-up through the start of the week.

Presuming the ECM op/ens move towards the GFS tonight is decisive, then it would be a good few days at the office for GFS, IMO - not spot on, but it spotted the big fly in the ointment before the other models. But then again just maybe the UKMO will be right - it has been before!!