Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Ice Day]

Uppers at 174 on the 18z

vs the 12z

I think we can safely say this is a big turnaround.  Need to see this repeated by the 00z, however this could be a gold star for the UKMO on this occasion?

[swilliam]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Cold UK high, we don't get those very often at all and it would make for some stunning frosts.

You can't make it up really, ECM and JMA move toward GFS at which point GFS begins to move the other way. Ahhhh models, bless em.

Yes quite - this thing is wholly undecided (as it was before this run) but at least we do not have to keeping reading that the GFS has been really consistent (in showing a progressive outlier IMO). If we could get some trough disruption of the trough in the W Atlantic then you could get some really interesting charts again.

[Chris K]

Just now, Ice Day said:

Uppers at 174 on the 18z

vs the 12z

I think we can safely say this is a big turnaround.  Need to see this repeated by the 00z, however this could be a gold star for the UKMO on this occasion?

Definitely interesting, but I'd like to wait and see if this Op run was an outlier or not.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Uppers at 174 on the 18z

vs the 12z

I think we can safely say this is a big turnaround.  Need to see this repeated by the 00z, however this could be a gold star for the UKMO on this occasion?

some backup from its members would be good. Don't want a cold outlier....

[Daniel*]

20 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I enter phasing... errr phase

Blimey I was not expecting that, prolonging cold as consequence.

Also Siberian high is stronger a decent run this is turning out to be. Most encouraged I've been all day, I cannot dismiss UKMO consistency whilst GFS also was quite adamant. When you get these standoffs,  I tend to favour the cold solution winning out, and I suspect this has happened here. We'll have to await to see. 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[ukpaul]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

some backup from its members would be good. Don't want a cold outlier....

It already has backup from other models.

So, with this setup getting near to a time whenit's settled we may now be looking forward to the next drama - will we or won't we get an undercut? I don't think my nerves can take much more!

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

Wow I did not expect this backtrack from the gfs , game on !

[Great Plum]

If, and it's a huge if, this GFS run came off, much of the country would be close to an ice day by Monday week - the high pressure makes it colder and colder!

[weather eater]

Thing is a and I keep saying it, synoptics don't stop evolving. It really is quite futile analyzing every run in the anticipation that they will verify roughly post 96hrs, especially in regards our tiny island jutting out as it does into the Atlantic. In any case and in every case, every run has the latest set of starting figures, so each run will evolve in a different fashion from the last, slowly at first but with more and more divergence every frame we see, It happens every day of the week. This is why the ensembles are run in order to give guidance but that guidance also degrades the further you get from zero hour. This means of course that the 00z run will not evolve in the same way as this one, However we can hope it's not too dissimilar. In short its never over till its over, though I confess, like many others I'd as good as throw the towel in after the 12z, more fool I.

[bobbydog]

so just as we need it, the GFS gives the jet stream a day off!

sorry mr GFS but all leave is cancelled!!!

[Day 10]

Just when I was getting used to the idea that it was going to be a cold snap rather than a cold spell, the GFS then does this! Crazy stuff, this week has been far better watching each model output than watching the tele! What next? Another easterly...

[tight isobar]

Gfs 18z just highlights the overall model divergence given.

Lots and lots to unfold here...

And set your model goggles east in coming days a mentioned earlier. Ie mid week onwards. 

The Russian peninsula will most likely be tge the opening key to REAL outbreak of cold...

 

[swilliam]

13 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

 

Probably not worth looking at far  FI as the GFS has set off one of its customary bombs in the W Atlantic (935 mb)

(Edit:- unless it shows something good of course)

Edited January 10, 2016 by swilliam

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Might I be permitted to make a point regarding the main three models today from my perspective without having to post outputs? 

Considering what has changed since the 00z outputs, we seem to have the UKMO staying much the same, the ECM worsening slightly from the coldies' POV, and the GFS moving quite significantly in the other direction.  This of course doesn't mean that the 00z GFS might not revert to default zonality by next weekend, but, in case anyone says "what do you expect from the pub run?", I made a mental note the other week that one of our repected members (can't recall who it was, though) provided evidence that the pub run is very liitle different in terms of accuracy from the others.

Edited January 10, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman

[Kieran]

 

Long way off but Friday continue to looks interesting for a good chunk of england. GFS showing mostly snow

[TomDav]

Heights building over Scandi

[Nouska]

3 hours ago, Nouska said:

Great post Captain  - cropped for quoting.

Significant change in the GEFS on latest update: previously doing acrobatics in phase 8 only - now progressing through phase one before looping back. We might even be seeing some consensus with MJO modelling but will this translate to the daily NWP.

Is it coincidence that we are now seeing a GFS run that is more in line with the other NWP.

Noted earlier Mr F mentioning MJO phase 2 signalled on GloSea5. That might also be a nice pattern to see in February.

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, Kieran said:

 

Long way off but Friday continue to looks interesting for a good chunk of england. GFS showing mostly snow

That'd be nice for us in brum keiran! 

[feb1991blizzard]

Where's steve when we need him most?

[Kieran]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

That'd be nice for us in brum keiran! 

Haha yes, its been showing atleast a covering of snow in the midlands area a few runs now in a row. Hope it continues all the way to T24

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, Greenland1080 said:

Signs of a classic Scandy high an Easterly building....may not come off but what a model end to a great cold week coming up

 

unbelievable Tekkers!

incoming !!!!!!!!!!

 

Hows your eye's BA

Edited January 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[SMU]

Lol GFS nearly pulls it out the bag 

[Great Plum]

Even colder a week Tuesday!!

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, Essex snowman said:

5 minutes ago, Kieran said:

 

Long way off but Friday continue to looks interesting for a good chunk of england. GFS showing mostly snow

Disappointed charts today but I'm sure that we will get a very cold spell this winter so let's get the next weeks cold out the way then wait for a proper cold spell soon heads up guys and girls 

Looks good for the whole of Wales too but we'll soon see what happens, not holding my breath haha! can't believe the GFS backtracking!

[Kieran]

3 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Even colder a week Tuesday!!

-6 maximum for Central Scotland. Wow would be nice if it came off