Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Banbury]

Quite an incredible turn around , really does get your head spinning at times.

As for snow this week, I'm not really sure what some are expecting , me, just snow falling is a bonus , is or will it be cold enough???? not sure anyone really knows.

[DerbyshireSnow]

47 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

18z Short Ensembles

12z Short Ensembles

Quite something that for 17/1 (ie. a week away!), not one member is out of the -5 to -10 range for 850s. Astonishing agreement

[Geordiesnow]

The 18Z run is better than previous GFS runs but I think people are getting ahead of themselves when they expect the ECM to back down in the morning, it sadly does not always work that way and the next GFS run could well show something like the ECM and the ECM could stick to its guns. 

That said, as per usual in these situations, the longer range forecast is tricky to predict so I would not be surprised too see some variations from run to run. I like the UKMO to be nearer the mark but I would not be surprised if its over amplifying things again which is unusual for the UKMO model as its usually the least reluctant to show anything interesting. 

Would not be surprised if the ECM does back down somewhat but would not be surprised if it doesn't either. At least we know it will turn colder and there could be some snow(although its perhaps more marginal than it should of been) for some people although details on that are far from clear as of yet. 

[Allseasons-Si]

23 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

OK, time to pause for breath.  There have been a plethora of posts over the last week promising a roller-coaster ride which is exactly what we've got.  The models are wobbling all over the place.  None have this upcoming spell nailed, however momentum is going the way of cold.  I'm a glass half full type of chap,  but I really do think there could be some massive charts coming up in the next 36 hours.  We shall see, but if nothing else, this weekends models have stopped me painting the downstairs toilet, so that's a positive.

Until tomorrow gang.

They have stopped me painting the whole house this week

this forum is so adictive lol

there has been so many ups and downs with the models that it just goes to show how volitile the situation is at the moment,i would just like to say though that at least we have a cold spell coming and we should all enjoy it,we all deserve it

http://www.myweather2.com/synop/player.aspx?synop=2

 

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Allseasons-si

[Daniel*]

Sunday is absolutely frigid on GFS 18z, 

with UK under HP very cold air remains in situ. UK Max temperatures of -8*C in highlands, overnight I think we'd be pushing towards -20*C. Exceptional cold not seen since 2010.

Based on those charts we might be smashing records. Absolutely a perfect synoptic for very low minima & maxima very slack and windless aside from Cornwall & Western Ireland. It most likely will not turn out like this, but I think it was worthy of comment, as mentioned on TWO.

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[Harsh Climate]

Seriously liking the gfs 00z, chance of snow tuesday and thursday morning looks very nice, -1c with snow (for me lol)

 

Also the pesky low near the azores is further south west and less deep, and milder atlantic a tad further away on this run. Expect a longer cold spell on this run!

[Mucka]

-GFS looking good at 144 although Atlantic looks angry.

What I like most, other than the ridge of course, is the pattern behind is more amplified which is just what we need to maintain blocking.

[snowangel32]

9 minutes ago, Mucka said:

-GFS looking good at 144 although Atlantic looks angry.

What I like most, other than the ridge of course, is the pattern behind is more amplified which is just what we need to maintain blocking.

Mucka I don't know what to make of this run seems to collapse the ridge again but leaves better heights in Greenland so confused

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by snowangel32

[Harsh Climate]

18 minutes ago, Mucka said:

-GFS looking good at 144 although Atlantic looks angry.

What I like most, other than the ridge of course, is the pattern behind is more amplified which is just what we need to maintain blocking.

 

Very good run indeed

[Mucka]

Just now, snowangel32 said:

Mucks I don't know what to make of this run seems to collapse the ridge again but leaves better heights in Greenland so confused

 

-

Yeah the trough doesn't disrupt any energy SE at all but it may well do in future runs.

Imagine the 168 chart without the ball of energy SW of Greenland and just a slack trough, a stronger ridge and low pressure disrupting toward Western Spain (undercutting).

Things would look very good then and it wouldn't take a huge adjustment.

I guess best to just concentrate on how good the ridge is for now and hope for improvements regarding that because otherwise it is a nice run and back into the cold very quickly I see.

 

[Mucka]

51 minutes ago, Mucka said:

-

Yeah the trough doesn't disrupt any energy SE at all but it may well do in future runs.

Imagine the 168 chart without the ball of energy SW of Greenland and just a slack trough, a stronger ridge and low pressure disrupting toward Western Spain (undercutting).

Things would look very good then and it wouldn't take a huge adjustment.

I guess best to just concentrate on how good the ridge is for now and hope for improvements regarding that because otherwise it is a nice run and back into the cold very quickly I see.

 

Sorry for replying to my own post but this ensemble member is the sort of thing I was describing.

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 6 charts

UKMO

Still pretty decent with the shower supply down the east only being cut out just about now. Still cold.

GFS

High pressure over the UK but with an extended ridge up towards Greenland. This is one to watch as the evolution could evolve with a few tweaks to something March 2013-esque. What is the GFS up to.

GEM

Fairly similar to the UKMO, despite a few attempts we are never really able to develop an easterly from the point but conditions remain settled and cold al the way out to day 10.

An interesting set of outputs this morning. The UKMO and GEM keep on the same idea albeit a little flatter, the GFS however is looking at something very different potentially. Possibly a solution BA was alluding to over the past couple of days.

That is all from me, a large mix of solutions from early on from the GFS ens,

[Duane S.]

11 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Sorry for replying to my own post but this ensemble member is the sort of thing I was describing.

Quite agree Mucka. It really doesn't take much of a shift of emphasis to end up with a chart like this. We are a hair bredth's away from some epic charts in the mid term. Got a feeling one of the big 3 is going to pull 1 out of the bag in the next couple of days. Whether it verifies of course, another thing...

[TEITS]

JUst a quickie from me.

I mentioned a possible E,ly developing yesterday morning and this appears to be gaining some momentum in the output. I still fear a majority of the cold will be heading S into the Med but we still have time to see the high build further N.

On a more negative note I feel some in S areas are expecting too much from the potential snow this week. I am of the opinion that the S is more likely to see snow falling rather than snowfall and this to occur on the backedge as fronts clear.

Edited January 11, 2016 by TEITS

[Timmytour]

I'ma bit worried seeing no post on here for nearly an hour...or was until I saw Teits post!

850s  on ECM at T168 does look like a creep across of the cold from the East   <fingers crossed>


 

 

[Great Plum]

ECM is much better this morning for prolonging the cold - next Sunday / Monday looks pretty frigid and those -10 uppers aren't far away...

[Iceberg]

An embarrassing movement from gfs considering where it was 24 hrs ago. Always likely to happen, but your never certain. Considering the movement in the models anything beyond t120 is far from certain but the signal is there for deep cold until t 168 at least and more so further south.

models are generally backing away from the destruction of the Greenland high, but with enough energy to allow a few snow chances, we'd thru sat. 

Very good models now for cold 

[mountain shadow]

Cold spell extended this morning and indications of high pressure settling to the North of the islands allowing colder uppers to drift in from the continent. 

All in all a pleasing morning 

[chris55]

7 hours ago, nick sussex said:

 

 

 

 

Yet more options on the table this morning. GFS grabs a new idea with the ridge towards Greenland again and looking at that ensemble member above at 168 just shows pretty much anything is possible in the mid term.

 

 

[That ECM]

Well well well, the wonderful world of model watching. When the meto state they have low confidence and we get such inconsistentcy in the output the only thing you can do is be patient and wait for a strong signal.

 The only thing we know really is that the cold looks to last longer, well into next week, at which point we are in model lala land. In this time where you can get an answer to most things at the click of button this is one where you can't and I am happy for that to be the case. We watch with interest both short term for details and longer for trends.

[weather eater]

I wouldn't suggest there has been a climb-down by the GFS, rather than the usual has happened and we have a middle ground solution. On a slightly more heavy note, apparently David Bowie has died of cancer.

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by weather eater

[mb018538]

I quite like the look of how things are lining up. Looks as if we're going to get a cold shot, followed by a cold high.....eventually everything swinging back to a more W-E flow, though by that time there could be an inversion under the high and it stays cold anyway. Looks like more eastern half of the UK may even fare best for a change!

[Radiating Dendrite]

ECM still a little grouchy this morning. High pressure to our West, then on top before is sinks south at the end of the run into the slug position. 

Hopefully we will see little updates throughout today with a more pleasing ECM later. Must admit, I am starting to fancy our chances of a surprise easterly; will not take a lot given current output.

[MR EXTREMES]

42 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

An embarrassing movement from gfs considering where it was 24 hrs ago. Always likely to happen, but your never certain. Considering the movement in the models anything beyond t120 is far from certain but the signal is there for deep cold until t 168 at least and more so further south.

models are generally backing away from the destruction of the Greenland high, but with enough energy to allow a few snow chances, we'd thru sat. 

Very good models now for cold 

but the gefs renews blocking into Greenland in its later stages also the jet splits holding heights over Greenland but its on its own but one to watch.

[sparky1972]

i am glad to see there is a bit more positivity here this morning, then i went onto the Metoffice forecast for mby and its rain all the way, today, tomorrow, thursday, fingers crossed , that the cold air will get ahead of the rain on thurs and give us a surprise rain to snow event, will be reading peoples views with interest, keep up the good work everyone.