Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[karlos1983]

Looking back at last Wednesday GFS 12z, it's not done too badly to my eye

Today 12z 6h  v  Last Wednesday prediction for Today 7pm

[SLEETY]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Looking back at last Wednesday GFS 12z, it's not done too badly to my eye

Today 12z 6h  v  Last Wednesday prediction for Today 7pm

always once it get it right in how many attempts lol

 

[warmintim]

Tbh I think it is possible to put too much weight into the extended met office forecasts. As with others suggestions I strongly suspect that not much time and effort goes into them. For a more accurate reflection I suspect that Fergieweather's post about how much uncertainty is present even in to the medium term, and the known poor handling of models in displacing entrenched cold air by milder atlantic systems is a truer reflection of metoffice thinking.

As we finally move into the period of colder weather there will be small features popping up - I would suggest keeping an eye on the EURO4 for potential wintry precipitation at short notice when the colder air starts to feature more.

 

[Man With Beard]

Latest from fergieweather (Ian Fergusson):

Latest UKMO public GloSea5 update stays consistent: a (v broad!) idea of higher pressure to W/N; lower to E, Feb-Apr https://t.co/TaRNOPV7vy

3:38 PM Jan 11th via Twitter for Android
http://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/686572912460042240

[SLEETY]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest from fergieweather (Ian Fergusson):

Latest UKMO public GloSea5 update stays consistent: a (v broad!) idea of higher pressure to W/N; lower to E, Feb-Apr https://t.co/TaRNOPV7vy

3:38 PM Jan 11th via Twitter for Android
http://twitter.com/fergieweather/status/686572912460042240

hmm so far ahead to take much notice,how accurate can any model be at that range,still struggling to pin down exact details,for next few days 

[winterof79]

20 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hmm so far ahead to take much notice,how accurate can any model be at that range,still struggling to pin down exact details,for next few days 

 

It has normally been throwing out mild that's why it is worthy of attention.

Edited January 11, 2016 by winterof79

[Timmytour]

 

 

6z top  T72 and 12z below    T66  GFS

Is there more reluctance to push the low to our north east westwards?   (not withstanding the 3T difference)

[Paul_1978]

3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hmm so far ahead to take much notice,how accurate can any model be at that range,still struggling to pin down exact details,for next few days 

It's a broad suggestion of a trend, not a detailed forecast. 

Either way it's a good trend, if you're a coldie. 

[karlos1983]

could just be my eye's, but the Jet seems to be wanting to dig more S than SE over the Atlantic? 

12z   V   06z

[winterof79]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

could just be my eye's, but the Jet seems to be wanting to dig more S than SE over the Atlantic? 

12z   V   06z

Splitting hairs there I fear Karlos

[Kieran]

Thursday and Friday showing snow showers for almost  all parts of England and Wales according to the current GFS. BBC weather showing mainly rain and sleet for the same time period. Hmm... Could be a nice covering by the end of the week in many areas

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

12 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

hmm so far ahead to take much notice,how accurate can any model be at that range,still struggling to pin down exact details,for next few days 

GLOSEA5 is a specialist long-range model that, AFAIK, only computes broad patterns rather than doing what the "Big 3" do, which is attempt to generate temperature, pressure, ppn. and wind predictions on a much finer grid.

Edited January 11, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting a grammatical error/typo

[Great Plum]

This 12z GFS seems to have fewer 'mild sectors' in the upper air - virtually all of the country under -5 air on Thursday...

 

temps are a degree or so down as well from the 6z

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Splitting hairs there I fear Karlos

Come on folks - show some respect: bisection of rabbits is not allowed on netweather. Keep to the models, please...

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Splitting hairs there I fear Karlos

Just looking at the detail from some of the informative posts from Mucka and Tamara today.  That's all 

[Geordiesnow]

Yeah slightly better in the short term of less in the way mild sectors but it looks like it could go the same way as the 06Z run as the amplification is still not as strong as this morning's Euro runs. 

Lets see where it goes from here, hopefully the cold air can show a bit more stubborness. 

The UKMO at 96 hours does still show more amplification than the GFS so I would imagine any Atlantic interference will be slower than the GFS or even not show up at all. 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Geordiesnow

[gottolovethisweather]

15 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Thursday and Friday showing snow showers for almost  all parts of England and Wales according to the current GFS. BBC weather showing mainly rain and sleet for the same time period. Hmm... Could be a nice covering by the end of the week in many areas

 

Yep, a trend that the outputs have broadly stuck to over the past few runs. This is our best window of opportunity for wintriness and I feel it will be nightmare forecast for those trying to work gets the rain, sleet or snow mixture. A messy, transient picture perhaps but I'd take it, bring it on.

Edited January 11, 2016 by gottolovethisweather

[SLEETY]

oh dear atlantic coming in,as per met office update

 

[Timmytour]

The depth of cold uppers out to our east does not seem as strong on the 12GFS run as it was on the 6z

[mulzy]

Again, significant differences at day 5:

UKMO much more amplified but probably not as good as earlier runs...

[Iceberg]

Meanwhile the meto is stunning again for the 12z..... Could even go on to form an easterly from that 

 

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, SLEETY said:

oh dear atlantic coming in,as per met office update

 

Yet the UKMO at 120 hours may suggest otherwise, there is a lot more WAA heading into Greenland  than this mornings 00Z run, 144 hour chart will be interesting. 

Do I have much trust in it? Not an awful lot, been over amplifying things a lot in the past 5 days and not really proving to be correct at all.  

[doctor32]

  ukmo @ 120 still looks better for high pressure to build in over uk and prevent atlantic for time being

[bradymk]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

oh dear atlantic coming in,as per met office update

 

Yes but even if the Atlantic does come back in for a time, the Met office see that from the middle of next week, not early Monday as GFS shows with it staying cold until at least Wednesday/Thursday according to them. GFS likely too progressive regardless the eventual outcome.

[warmintim]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Again, significant differences at day 5:

UKMO much more amplified but probably not as good as earlier runs...

That's an amazing difference at not too distant a point in the future! They can't both be right...