Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Liam J]

Although not the same the ECM @ T144 closer to the GFS. 

 

[bradymk]

1 minute ago, radiohead said:

ECM T144 quite a bit closer to the GFS (though not identical) than the UKMO, which looks out on it's own here. Interesting to see what the ECM does at T168.

Key difference between ECM and GFS is a more negatively tilted trough to our west and the higher heights around Iceland. Keeps the cold for longer

[Geordiesnow]

ECM is similar to the UKMO in the early part of the run that is for sure and that more encouraging for me at least, it looks like the Atlantic may finally break through though but that is still in the medium frame and at least the cold air will be more stubborn on this run also and uppers are a little better also for any potential snowfall. 

At this stage, I would favour the Atlantic breaking through than any easterly but you can't rule anything out at this stage. Now if the Atlantic is going to break through, just how quick will this be? Seeing as the GFS is probably under doing Amplification early on in the run, you would imagine it won't be as quick as the GFS model is predicting. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

10 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Look at the difference between GFS and ECM over the states at 120. High not quite as far north as on UKMO though.

 

Edit: At 144, ECMWF has -6 850 line at around Swansea whereas GFS has the 0c at Swansea with -6 only hanging on to the far north east

Is the US/Canadian low undercutting the block on ECM?  To my inexperienced eyes, not only is it weaker and more elongated, but it also seems to be going under the high.

Edited January 11, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typo.

[nick sussex]

This is getting very complicated! The ECM takes the mid road solution, the energy distribution at T168hrs could go either way and so the ECM ensembles are still likely to show a split between those that have more energy disrupting se rather than ne.

At least it didn't back the GFS upto T120hrs but these big divergences mean its impossible to make a forecast past this weekend.

[Mucka]

I feel ECM is the closest to what we actually see tonight though I don't think it has nailed it down yet.

Marks out of ten.

GFS 2, UKMO 2, ECM 5 (Yes, I would of made a good headmaster )

[chris55]

Im liking ECM 144, cold air entrenched and a disrupting low attempting to push in! 168 flattens things but for now up to 144 the trend is good!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

This is getting very complicated! The ECM takes the mid road solution, the energy distribution at T168hrs could go either way and so the ECM ensembles are still likely to show a split between those that have more energy disrupting se rather than ne.

At least it didn't back the GFS upto T120hrs but these big divergences mean its impossible to make a forecast past this weekend.

The ECM run isn't helpful at all. Door half open on this run as you say so another day goes by where we're literally none the wiser over where we head post weekend.

[Mucka]

JMA backing UKMO

[bradymk]

168, London still -7 at 850, compared to +1c on the GFS. Cold much further west. Still don't think any of the models are anywhere near consistent enough to have a good idea of what will happen next week. 192 the mild air moves in on ECM (Next Tuesday), still maybe a bit too early for me.

[radiohead]

At least this is far enough away to allow the possibility of major changes still...

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The ECM run isn't helpful at all. Door half open on this run as you say so another day goes by where we're literally none the wiser over where we head post weekend.

True, anything could happen. Good, bad or downright ugly! The ECM could easily have shown an easterly with the trough disruption better between T144hrs and T168hrs, we could also see the energy all pile over the top. Its one of those set ups that's a toss-up.

We still have the GFS to worry about even before the post T144hrs timeframe and that was very underwhelming, we really need that to backtrack on its 18hrs run because given the timeframes even though it was criticized by NCEP we are talking now of events within T96hrs!

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

JMA backing UKMO

The number of times these two models are 24 hours behind the game is unbelievable. I will bet my bottom dollar these two come over to gfs and ecm tomorrow. 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The number of times these two models are 24 hours behind the game is unbelievable. I will bet my bottom dollar these two come over to gfs and ecm tomorrow. 

we've been saying that for a while now though, one way or the lol

But given the timeframes we are talking about now, surely this will be resolved tomorrow.........surely?

Edited January 11, 2016 by karlos1983

[Cloud 10]

Going to be some tricky forecasting for wednesday/thursday judging by the latest fax chart,with low pressure and fronts moving across the country in sub 528 dam air.

 

[Banbury]

If they are 24 hours behind GFS then shouldn't it be showing what GFS did at 12z yesterday???? bloody awful.

Would you have said this after last nights 18z

[chris55]

An easterly into next week doesn't look out of the question to me. Obviously its all up in the air, but at face value ECM up-to 144 is heading in the right direction. If we could get an undercut thereafter, which wouldn't take much, we would be looking at a very different set of FI charts.

[bradymk]

ARPEGE Higher res model highly regarded by the Met Office. 114 output is good, better than ECM and GFS anyway.

Has some snow running down eastern England thursday too.

[i luv snow]

5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The number of times these two models are 24 hours behind the game is unbelievable. I will bet my bottom dollar these two come over to gfs and ecm tomorrow. 

If, and it's a big if, they did, it wouldn't be 24 hours though would it? Ensembles of GFS and ECM continue to show similar evolutions, so this really isn't so clear cut at all.

Edited January 11, 2016 by i luv snow

[BARRY]

On 10/01/2016 at 4:50 PM, *Sub*Zero* said:

 

 

[Liam J]

Does it hold much weight that two of the main models now bring in a W/SW flow into next week? Though the ECM extends the cold for a few more days vs the faster route shown by the GFS... More runs needed, this is turning into quite a saga!! 

[karlos1983]

[Summer Sun]

ECM turns things less cold as we move into next week

 

With the amount of changes lately many more runs are needed before what get a clearer picture beyond the weekend but based on this run it would remain dry but become a lot milder again

Edited January 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

At least this is far enough away to allow the possibility of major changes still...

The back end of the ecm op tonight is scarily similar to this morning's op. Alarm bells are ringing now with regards to seeing laying snow before Feb.

[Frosty.]

Well the Ecm 12z is increasingly cold within the reliable timeframe and out to T+168 hours, I'm not going to let what might happen next week spoil what we have on the doorstep which is our first nationwide cold spell of the winter. Some of us are going to have a covering of snow later this week or sooner as well as widespread frosts and ice, the cold hasn't even begun to dig in yet but it will as the complex UK trough pushes off to the east and opens the door to an even colder NWly flow and the outlook for next week will change...Enjoy this week including the weekend coldies.