Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[feb1991blizzard]

The EC32 control run is just trickling out - i wonder if anyone would be kind enough to do the honours and give a running commentary on it, thanks in advance.

[weirpig]

11 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Shaky from a Imby point of view me and you should be rooting for the gfs tonight gives the Midlands a significant snow event lol. 

I would love the gfs to be right snowangel  but the way the gfs as been performing I cant see it  national forecast goes for dry as does majority of other models

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'll try again, fax for 120

That looks a nice chart, are thought black lines below the UK weather fronts that have moved through? I guess Afro night???

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I'll try again, fax for 120

Nice fax chart there, troughs swinging south in an Arctic airflow with snow showers...Bank

[Daniel*]

Such as below provides forecasters serious headaches with such volatility. Dire IMBY moves you to tears, although large areas of the country are impacted.

Some back-edge snow for SE England.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

That looks a nice chart, are thought black lines below the UK weather fronts that have moved through? I guess Afro night???

If you're referring to the plain lines at right angles to the isobars, those are upper troughs moving south in the flow.  I'd imagine they could give a dusting if conditions (dew points etc.) are OK.

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'll try again, fax for 120

One thing that stands out from that is the positioning of the Azores low which looks further South than GFS has it for the same period though not easy to guage with the skewed fax charts. Why are they not orientated like the model output, surely that would make life easier?

[johnholmes]

Just now, Mucka said:

One thing that stands out from that is the positioning of the Azores low which looks further South than GFS has it for the same period though not easy to guage with the skewed fax charts. Why are they not orientated like the model output, surely that would make life easier?

I think they are so orientated as they are/were in my day, taken of the some chart layout as the senior man uses for drawing his charts?

 

[Mucka]

Just now, johnholmes said:

I think they are so orientated as they are/were in my day, taken of the some chart layout as the senior man uses for drawing his charts?

 

Yeah they have been like this since I can remember but I'm not sure why they still are in this day and age.

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Nice fax chart there, troughs swinging south in an Arctic airflow with snow showers...Bank

Yes Frosty would keep the cold going into next week at least.

Worth comparing tonight's GFS at 114hrs with that and the UK raw chart at t120-all for same time .midday Saturday.

so to my old eyes it looks very much the fax follows the raw output from the uk 12z run.Note the Atlantic heights further north and the Canadian trough angled more se on the UK model.

Interesting.

 

 

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Yeah they have been like this since I can remember but I'm not sure why they still are in this day and age.

Perhaps one should realise they are produced for Exeter and other world weather centres. take a look at their output for civil aviation you may find some similarity in the orientation/shape/scale etc. We as the public are very small fry, however much that upsets, to their main money paying customers. NOT us although they are available for us. 

[swilliam]

1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

Perhaps one should realise they are produced for Exeter and other world weather centres. take a look at their output for civil aviation you may find some similarity in the orientation/shape/scale etc. We as the public are very small fry, however much that upsets, to their main money paying customers. NOT us although they are available for us. 

Yes -pity that except of course we paid for it in the first place.

[Mucka]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Perhaps one should realise they are produced for Exeter and other world weather centres. take a look at their output for civil aviation you may find some similarity in the orientation/shape/scale etc. We as the public are very small fry, however much that upsets, to their main money paying customers. NOT us although they are available for us. 

Right but they wouldn't exist without us, we fund them, not asking too much for them to throw us a bones is it?

And why would UK centric customers not want UK orientated charts anyway? 

I don't understand the advantage over a UK centric orientated chart is what I'm saying.

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Mucka

[TEITS]

Disappointing output today with the exception of the UKMO. As I said a few days ago an E,ly is an outsider with the more likely outcome being the high slowly sinks S. What the ECM is showing in the medium range appears logical to me. Despite the difference between the GFS/ECM in the short term its worrying to see such mild synoptics being shown in the medium range.

I will finally give some advice to newer members on here.

You will at times read some very technical posts on here referring to various teleconnections and how these may dictate the weather patterns in the medium/long range. However it does not matter how promising these signals are as they mean nothing if this does not show up on the actual model output at a sensible timeframe. I mention this because if I had a pound for every post I have read promising one thing only for the model output to show the opposite I would be a very rich man.

I will add if I had a pound for every E,ly I have predicted I would be a millionaire.

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, phil nw. said:

Yes Frosty would keep the cold going into next week at least.

Worth comparing tonight's GFS at 114hrs with that and the UK raw chart at t120-all for same time .midday Saturday.

so to my old eyes it looks very much the fax follows the raw output from the uk 12z run.Note the Atlantic heights further north and the Canadian trough angled more se on the UK model.

Interesting.

 

 

Fingers crossed Phil, that fax chart is a good way to end the day for a coldie

[johnholmes]

Perhaps one should realise they are produced for Exeter and other world weather centres. take a look at their output for civil aviation you may find some similarity in the orientation/shape/scale etc. We as the public are very small fry, however much that upsets, to their main money paying customers. NOT us although they are available for us. 

to add only this I have tried to explain why it is done. Now why not e mail them instead of making a fuss in here?

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Perhaps one should realise they are produced for Exeter and other world weather centres. take a look at their output for civil aviation you may find some similarity in the orientation/shape/scale etc. We as the public are very small fry, however much that upsets, to their main money paying customers. NOT us although they are available for us. 

to add only this I have tried to explain why it is done. Now why not e mail them instead of making a fuss in here?

Making a fuss? It started as a perfectly simple and innocent question until you chirped in, anyway...

GFS ensembles are better than the 12z set but I think the two charts below say it all - these from just 108 hours!

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Mucka

[The Enforcer]

5 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Perhaps one should realise they are produced for Exeter and other world weather centres.

I hope it's OK to ask if you know why they never put the DAM lines on the 'Analysis' and T+24 fax charts?

[Daniel*]

The Met Office are siding with UKMO, if not a better solution for prolonging cold with a stronger ridge/block, heights also appearing to want to build in the direction of Scandinavia so a cold continental flow still seems viable to me. The ECM got me feeling a little dreary but now I'm much more intrigued. The sega continues.  

[Tom Jarvis]

Haha

2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Making a fuss? It started as a perfectly simple and innocent question until you chirped in, anyway...

GFS ensembles are better than the 12z set but I think the two charts below say it all - these from just 108 hours!

 

Haha the GFS hasn't got a clue. It is like a broken clock that will still be right twice a day. Where is Steve Murs pic he had of the donkey, stick and carrot. 

[Mucka]

14 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Haha

Haha the GFS hasn't got a clue. It is like a broken clock that will still be right twice a day. Where is Steve Murs pic he had of the donkey, stick and carrot. 

Perhaps but are ECM ensembles any wiser? You can't get much more scatter than that.

DP's are still expected to be above 0 come Wednesday night for all of England, shows how much the cold air is struggling to get South.

GFS ensembles SE England 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Mucka

[booferking]

12 minutes ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

The Met Office are siding with UKMO, if not a better solution for prolonging cold with a stronger ridge/block, heights also appearing to want to build in the direction of Scandinavia so a cold continental flow still seems viable to me. The ECM got me feeling a little dreary but now I'm much more intrigued. The sega continues.  

I have a question is human input that more accurate than the models??

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

I have a question is human input that more accurate than the models??

Yes.

[booferking]

1 minute ago, Earnest Easterly* said:

Yes.

I hope so i want this cold to be prolonged not looking mild mush any time soon this wee Island is wet enough as it is.

[Nath]

13 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Perhaps but are ECM ensembles any wiser? You can't get much more scatter than that.

DP's are still expected to be above 0 come Wednesday night for all of England, shows how much the cold air is struggling to get South.

GFS ensembles SE England 

I would call that a heads or tails moment.  Two distinct scatters, one load going for the freezer, the other going for an Atlantic return.  Do you feel lucky punk, well do ya....