Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[SMU]

Evening All-

I echo the sentiments of many here by enjoying the models struggle with this very diverse change in weather pattern & relating to that its unlikely that any model will escape without some war wounds-

I do love the UKMOs modeling of late - hellbent on delivering the cold solutions out of unlikely circumstances - however the UKMO ( & navgem ) are at the extreme end of the ensemble suite - IE maintaining very cold air - & crucially keeping the element of instability available with it- this born out of the slowest jet profile allowing the biggest wave amplitude ( although the indian model shown earlier was even more extreme to say the least )

 

The ECM is the other end of the spectrum with the jet being pretty fast & overpowering leading to warm & probably wet weather for all the wrong areas...

The middle ground is of course the slow return of milder air at day 9/10 - not day 8 like the ECM

 

so if your looking for cold longer then the swing required isnt that much out if the models- just a bit more amplification to start with- however to get to the UKMO & NAVGEM solutions ( cold & possible snow ) is a considerable leap & maybe a bit of a big jump to make...

 

can the UKMO / NAVGEM blend really land over the mighty ECM .... Yes ... Its happened before ( site Jan 13 undercut ) it may happen again...

S

Edited January 11, 2016 by Steve Murr

[Timmytour]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

That is certainly what JH is always telling us. Pick one run a day and stick with that.

Just as well becasue this is aleeady looking like it's going to be flatter than the 12z to me...tiny differences now I assume will escalate into bigger differences later in the run 

[johnholmes]

6 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

That is certainly what JH is always telling us. Pick one run a day and stick with that. 

True at longer time scales, say beyond 168h sometimes 144h. Below that then the convergence of the different models and consistency start to be more important.

[stewfox]

What time does the pub run come out ? Looking forward to latest update, hope there are no further surprises, its been a stressful week.

 

 

[Spah1]

1 minute ago, stewfox said:

What time does the pub run come out ? Looking forward to latest update, hope there are no further surprises, its been a stressful week.

 

 

 

 

[Timmytour]

It's upto T78 and already looking like the most progressive run of all ....unless there's a better long term aspect to it ..beast?

[Eskimo]

Crazily, the GFS 18z brings back the heavy snow for the Midlands.

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

It's upto T78 and already looking like the most progressive run of all ....unless there's a better long term aspect to it ..beast?

I know the models are struggling but I'm not sure that anything of note will change until around 96hrs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by TSNWK

[stratty]

Just now, PerfectStorm said:

Crazily, the GFS 18z brings back the heavy snow for the Midlands.

BBC just showed dry for the same time

[Ali1977]

Surely the GFS can't be very wrong at T90, it's meant to be more powerful after its upgrade. If anything it's worse than any of its last few runs...850s are not great even on Friday...I hope I'm wrong but I wouldn't be surprised if the UKMO flips towards it tonight...we'll see!!

[Timmytour]

T102...the movement of the low to the east of UK looks quite different....

[lambgregg1977]

Straw clutching is all it is. This forum has members that work tirelessly, and it's to be honest very hard to read.

All over snow, but were all passionate about it, and I stand by the passion that is shown. 

I just hope we can enjoy a cold spell worthy of your work. 

[Hammer]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Surely the GFS can't be very wrong at T90, it's meant to be more powerful after its upgrade. If anything it's worse than any of its last few runs...850s are not great even on Friday...I hope I'm wrong but I wouldn't be surprised if the UKMO flips towards it tonight...we'll see!!

Some seem to chop & change emotions as much as the models. It's just a possibility not a certainty. Of course a computer model can be wrong predicting something in 90 hours. Likewise we shouldn't just assume it has nailed things here.

[weirpig]

8 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

Crazily, the GFS 18z brings back the heavy snow for the Midlands.

Lovely to look at but not in a million years. Most likely be dry

[Weathizard]

Unfortunately this run is in the same vain as other recent GFS runs, at this stage I would say it's slightly worse that the 12z.

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2016011118/gfsnh-0-126.png?18

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, stratty said:

BBC just showed dry for the same time

Yh for almost all the UK bbc temps don't Look that cold on Thursday it has the midlands at 4c we need temps to drop lower for any snow, surely the gfs can't be that far of the mark at such a timeframe. My boyfriend thinks I am loosing it i have my phone checking met and bbc forecasts. And my tab looking at all yours guys and gals great posts. The last week has been unlike no other and still there is a stalemate between UKMO and GFS with ECM giving us a middle ground evolution. It's a full time hobby lol. 

[Methuselah]

IMO, the only mechanism capable of providing proper snowfall, with the sort of uppers predicted, is evaporative cooling; and, for that, winds need be very light or calm...

Edited January 11, 2016 by Ed Stone

[shaky]

One of the models is gona have big amount off egg on its face!!if its the ukmo and ecm its gona be embarassing cos they both look pretty much identical at 72 hours!!

[cyclonic happiness]

What the heck is going on with the GFS?  Has is gone mad or something?

I came in last night to find cheer and celebration, tonight it's doom and gloom. How can it flip backwards and forwards so often over one scenario?

I think most of us can agree that it's getting beyond the joke now 

[shaky]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Looks a step back on the fax chart to me

 

Looks pretty much identical to ukmo chart!!no step back there mate!!

[booferking]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Looks pretty much identical to ukmo chart!!no step back there mate!!

I thought it was a step back also maybe i am reading it wrong?

[Timmytour]

Europe looks a lot colder on this run compared to the GFS...can we tap into it eventually?

[Methuselah]

Come on, folks? This is the MOD thread' it ain't a dating agency...Weather models!

[snowangel32]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looks pretty much identical to ukmo chart!!no step back there mate!!

Shaky from a Imby point of view me and you should be rooting for the gfs tonight gives the Midlands a significant snow event lol. 

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Shaky from a Imby point of view me and you should be rooting for the gfs tonight gives the Midlands a significant snow event lol. 

 

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looks pretty much identical to ukmo chart!!no step back there mate!!

Sorry think your right i take that back.