Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Harsh Climate]

As long as the 12z UKMO run is good (which it is) who cares about the 12z GFS operational, it's probably a mild outliar anyway. GFS esembles, UKMO, ECM far more important than a sole gfs operational run.

[Eskimo]

At 144h - Huge differences at just 6 days out. 

UKMO

GFS

[Timmytour]

Those white colours over Greenland weren't there on the GFZ 6z I believe...... is that bad news in the sense of a PV re-asserting itself?

[igloo]

stick with UKMO output at 120h it has shown for a number of days now to be far more reliable than the GFS  which still has a big problem of over doing the  the atlantic lows

 

    very questionable in my book

Edited January 11, 2016 by igloo

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, PerfectStorm said:

At 144h - Huge differences at just 6 days out. 

UKMO

GFS

this been going on for days now between these two models

[Harsh Climate]

Very decent UKMO this afternoon.

[bradymk]

Brrrrr, UKMO still showing the cold to last longer than GFS. Hard to trust either of these models atm mind, so probably best to await ECM and it's ens once again...

[Mucka]

Laughably progressive GFS12z this afternoon with the Azores low hitting the jets and speeding North while amplification in the Atlantic sector is toned down minimal levels and heights over Greenland melt away quicker than a warm ramper in long fetch Easterly.

If we rule something out then the models are sure to make mugs of us and I did mention that taking the GFS route to a reload carried the danger of the atlantic getting in but I would give this Op about 1% chance of verifying 144-168.

UKMO much better but not at all convinced it has things right at 144 either.

As far as I'm concerned the model mayhem continues and anything past 96h is FI.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Very decent UKMO this afternoon.

Better than this morning's run and much better than the GFS runs for prolonging the cold, PPN amounts will be limited with rising pressure but I be content with that if it means it keeps the cold going. 

See if the ECM will go for the increased amplification or is the UKMO over doing things again?

[Timmytour]

Just now, Mucka said:

Laughably progressive GFS12z this afternoon

If won't be laughable if it does end up progressing like that!!

[irish1]

The difference between GFS 6z and 12z at 150 hours is crazy, 1040 back on 12z!

 

[AWD]

The T144 UKMO raw output is always decent.

Never maintains that decent theme down to T96 though.

[mountain shadow]

UKMO with classic vertical advection.  I'm getting more convinced we'll see the high settle to the North of the UK as opposed to over us or South. 

[Geordiesnow]

5 minutes ago, igloo said:

stick with UKMO output at 120h it has shown for a number of days now to be far more reliable than the GFS  which still has a big problem of over doing the  the atlantic lows

 

    very questionable in my book

Why? In general play the GFS has been consistent and turned out to be more correct than the UKMO which has been over amplifying the ridges unfortunately. No doubt the GFS over power low pressure systems and can at times in terms of details make a right dogs dinner out of the set up but its hard to place too much faith in the UKMO runs at the moment. 

ECM will be interesting too see which way it will go, hopefully the way of the UKMO but even if it does, we need too see more consistency too make sure its not false hope.

[Cloud 10]

12z GEM at 144 hrs.

 

[Methuselah]

11 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Meanwhile the meto is stunning again for the 12z..... Could even go on to form an easterly from that 

 

I agree, Iceberg - an easterly could very well be just around the corner? It may not show up on any of the synoptic models just now, but it's certainly consistent with the MetO's own (and others') late winter-early spring suggestions...

The blocking high is also looking far more stubborn than was, at first, predicted...Watch this space! 

[i luv snow]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Why? In general play the GFS has been consistent and turned out to be more correct than the UKMO which has been over amplifying the ridges unfortunately. No doubt the GFS over power low pressure systems and can at times in terms of details make a right dogs dinner out of the set up but its hard to place too much faith in the UKMO runs at the moment. 

ECM will be interesting too see which way it will go, hopefully the way of the UKMO but even if it does, we need too see more consistency too make sure its not false hope.

But the GFS has been chopping and changing the most, and when it shows these more progressive solutions, is nearly always not backed up by the ensembles. Also, the GFS is always too progressive when modelling the end of cold spells, so that suggests an output more like that of UKMO or ECM. As always, an all important ECM to come.

Edited January 11, 2016 by i luv snow

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Only good chance to get snow at the moment on the gfs 

[Dancerwithwings]

11 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

At 144h - Huge differences at just 6 days out. 

UKMO

GFS

The models are all over the shop from run to run .....144h is the new FI

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

The models are all over the shop from run to run .....144h is the new FI

When it comes to complex setups delivering cold into the UK, 144 as always been fi in terms of operational runs.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, i luv snow said:

But the GFS has been chopping and changing the most, and when it shows these more progressive solutions, is nearly always not backed up by the ensembles. Also, the GFS is always too progressive when modelling the end of cold spells, so that suggests an output more like that of UKMO or ECM. As always, an all important ECM to come.

I agree in can be over progressive and one is hoping that is the case again but you can't rule out the possibility of the Atlantic returning sooner than people would like, ECM has been showing this also albeit at a slower rate because of the better ridging in the shorter term. On the flip side, the ECM has also shown hints of a potential easterly also so you can't discount that either. 

But in terms of details like the slower trough(thus the cold air is more delayed), west based NAO, it was the first model to pick these and more or less stood by it. 

[Captain Shortwave]

7 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Why? In general play the GFS has been consistent and turned out to be more correct than the UKMO which has been over amplifying the ridges unfortunately. No doubt the GFS over power low pressure systems and can at times in terms of details make a right dogs dinner out of the set up but its hard to place too much faith in the UKMO runs at the moment. 

ECM will be interesting too see which way it will go, hopefully the way of the UKMO but even if it does, we need too see more consistency too make sure its not false hope.

We are not going to see any consistency any time soon from any of the models. Despite claims of over-amplification it looks like a 3 wave attack on the pole will have some success.

The pattern within the Arctic circle is a complete mess with the models trying to stitch parts of those low polar heights back together with no real consistency. The GFS this afternoon phases the low heights over Newfoundland and the low heights to our north in the worst possible position, on the 06z we saw something similar but an area of low heights was left over Eastern Canada which brought a northerly flow later on. The truth is the models are going to really struggle here with the nearer timeframes offering up renewed ridging towards the pole. Which of course means that any model output bringing a sudden change to a positive AO and NAO should be treated with extreme caution at the moment.

To be honest I can't put much confidence in either the UKMO or GFS output at day 5. The Azores low being in the mix just adds another complexity to an already highly complex set up. At this point we could be mild by the end of the weekend or in the freezer, both are arguably viable at this point given the set up across the pole.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Yarmy]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

UKMO with classic vertical advection.  I'm getting more convinced we'll see the high settle to the North of the UK as opposed to over us or South. 

A couple of years ago you could be almost certain that the UKMO would be closer to the truth and the GFS run too progressive. These days, I'm not so sure: the GFS nailed the faux Greenland High long before the others. On the other hand, the UKMO seems nearer to JH's anomaly charts. If you ran the UKMO on, it would be close to delivering something special IMBY, so that's another reason it won't happen.  

[Summer Sun]

GFS shows some less cold air trying to move in on Sunday giving some snow on its leading edge in the north before turning back to rain

Deeper into the run GFS sends temps back into double figures for the west and south west initially before spreading to most parts though Scotland probably staying colder the longest

Edited January 11, 2016 by Summer Sun

[SLEETY]

10 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

The models are all over the shop from run to run .....144h is the new FI

no thats average for jan isnt it those temps ,:(