Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[nick sussex]

Tonights UKMO fax charts:

T96hrs:

T120hrs:

 

T96 looks a bit messy in terms of snow, the T120hrs looks less messy and I like that pool of sub 510 dam to the nw.

Edited January 10, 2016 by nick sussex

[chris55]

1 minute ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

At the moment, sadly there is nothing to suggest the 18Z is more than an outlier.

 

Perhaps that's because the ensembles aren't out yet lol

[Badgers01]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Tonights UKMO fax charts:

T96hrs:

T120hrs:

that Friday fax chart pretty much screams snows for SE !!

 

[Chris1986]

18z gfs still intent on stratospheric warming and displacement of the polar vortex. If the drop in temps in the US is anything to go by I should expect the 500 & 850 temps to plummet over the uk end of Jan onwards. Just a guess.

[booferking]

GFS control coming out and looks a lot better.

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

At the moment, sadly there is nothing to suggest the 18Z is more than an outlier.

 

Why's that then?????

Edited January 10, 2016 by Paul_1978

[swilliam]

8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

So long as we don't get slush funds!

Yeah nice to see that Azores low didn't blow up the trough in the same way, still prefer to have it out of the picture though.

The reason was that the PV chunk in Canada was held further W due to the initial lows (in the PV chunk) being at least 5mb deeper and taking a slightly more N route - the PV chunk did not then phase with the lows in the W Atlantic and the jet coming off the E seaboard was then a lot weaker and did not blast through or over the tenuous Atlantic ridge

Edited January 10, 2016 by swilliam

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Tonights UKMO fax charts:

T96hrs:

T120hrs:

 

 

Well that is very reassuring Nick. Nice

[ukpaul]

18z Mean

Fipping around like a dolphin......

Edited January 10, 2016 by ukpaul

[chris55]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Tonights UKMO fax charts:

T96hrs:

T120hrs:

 

 

528 line is well south at 96

[MidnightSnow]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Has tonight's GFS run increased snow potential for later in the week? Sorry i'm rubbish are reading the charts. Fingers crossed this cold can hang on once here.

I believe it has  Don't worry, I can't read them either, just stick to the max temp and precip charts, that's what I do 

I post the temp charts every now and then but the mods delete them faster than you can say yellow snow. Serious mods are serious 

[nick sussex]

Just now, Badgers01 said:

 

Yes both would give some snow to favoured areas, the second looks a bit cleaner with the cold more embedded by then. I really hope that after the last UKMO fax chart fiasco that these come the day are close to what occurs.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

7 minutes ago, KasimWeatherQuarnford said:

At the moment, sadly there is nothing to suggest the 18Z is more than an outlier.

 

 

Really?

[Jason M]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Perhaps that's because the ensembles aren't out yet lol

 

Ah, but they are . At least to 132 hours and the clear difference in this set is to trend the high pressure further north and west (which is very good).

We knew there was scope for some improvement between days 4-8, so I'm now interested to see if the GEFS move away from increasing pressure over Iberia.

 

 

[Liam J]

GFS OP has a fair bit of support for prolonging the cold past next weekend, a few members are even colder.

Mean 850's for next Sunday.

 

[karlos1983]

Well scrolling through the gefs purbs, this seems no outlier 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=162&code=20&mode=0&carte=1

[Allseasons-Si]

WTF has just happened!!!

i was on the Strat thread browsing the archives from the 2012/13 SSW and took me best part of an hour and missed all the fun

18z,you naughty boy,now will we see this continue tomorrow or has the gfs been on the tipples again

i will drink to that

 

 

[pages]

16 minutes ago, Kieran said:

GFS 18z run probably the best run of the day for prolonging the cold? Cant believe i'm saying this but hopefully the other models will follow the GFS!

look at Ensemble 5 then. unreal, -12 uppers into East 174hr lol

 

[swilliam]

P5 shows what can happen if we do not phase the PV with the lows in the W Atlantic and these then merge and then we get trough disruption - builds the high much further N

 

[nick sussex]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Well that is very reassuring Nick. Nice

I think the GFS 18hrs run moving across has helped settle the nerves. Given the timeframes involved it would have been a worry if that stuck to its progressive earlier runs.

 

[Mucka]

Well it is only one set of ensembles but big flip tonight from GFS with ensembles much improved and any Westerly incursion delayed if not postponed indefinitely 

I say that because some are finding way to have the Azores low and Atlantic trough undercut and that is the first time that has been modeled to the best of my knowledge.

Given GFS knack for picking up new trends let's hope it is sniffing a new signal.

This has been a crazy roller coaster ride but we may not yet have hit the really wild part!

Tomorrow could be a day of massive upgrades

or

Not 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Mucka

[Daniel*]

Who missed the significant snowfall for London & Home Counties on the pub run!

[ukpaul]

18z Short Ensembles

12z Short Ensembles

[karlos1983]

Just now, ukpaul said:

18z Short Ensembles

12z Short Ensembles

No outlier, as expected. I shall sleep well on that note. Night all, it's been emotional lol

[Backtrack]

Typical. The ECM backtracks towards the 12Z GFS, then the 18Z GFS backtracks to what the ECM WAS showing yesterday haha