Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Daniel*]

14 minutes ago, mickpips said:

Unfortunately you have to take such forecast temperatures as maximums , in town and city centres ... away from such ... maximums will be way below them values 

That is correct mick however the maximum of today for London was 8C essentially that's tripe^^ 

[Ice Day]

Quote

....and at 114hrs, more amplified again!  I think we're all getting a bit fatigued with this!!!

 

[karlos1983]

enter phasing... errr phase

[Ice Day]

126hrs and it's going the way of the UKMO.  To coin a phrase, 'I don't believe it'!!!!!!

 

vs the 12z

 

 

[Kieran]

 

Nice chart at 132. High stretching up into greenland. Probably will topple but will keep colder air around our shores for longer

[chionomaniac]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You have amazing eyes Karlos!

 

He was right though and that extra amplification leads to a hold up of the milder air. LOL you couldn't make this up!

[swilliam]

4 minutes ago, swilliam said:

Also looks like Azores high might not link up with a small ridge there now

More importantly everything is a bit further W - including the PV chunk over Canada that keeps gobbling the lows in the W Atlantic which then pulls itself further E

[snowice]

2 minutes ago, swilliam said:

More importantly everything is a bit further W - including the PV chunk over Canada that keeps gobbling the lows in the W Atlantic which then pulls itself further E

Steve Murr are u watching all is not lost lol

[shaky]

Amazing absolutely amazing!!first run from the gfs today to back ukmo!!!couldnt make it up!!the high is going to scandi now lol!!

[swilliam]

Jet in W Atlantic much weaker on this run as the PV stays W

12z

18z

[snowangel32]

14 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

looks more amplified to my eye

Well spotted and leads to a much stronger ridge down the line so the gfs moves towards the UKMO lol. What next. 

[Liam J]

18z looks quite different! High centred west of the UK instead of Spain/Biscay @ T138, keeping the cold air hanging around longer... 

[karlos1983]

potential for an undercut here 

looks almost impossible for the high to sink, low heights in europe south and east.

Edited January 10, 2016 by karlos1983

[bobbydog]

the GFS throwing a UKMO-style ridge into the mix? surely not..?

 

 

(funny image not included)

[johnholmes]

And through the ups and downs on the synoptic models the NOAA anomaly charts continue along the same lines they have for the whole week, link below

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

IF they are correct, especially the 8-14, then the cold lasts at least until 24 January it seems. By then of course just dry cold.

[feb1991blizzard]

18z - a lot better, a stonking ridge slicing the PV in half, its just a pity that the curve to the east of the high is there - if it was straight, the arctic air would be building ready for a repeat of Jan 87, trend is good though, this could be a mid 80s run in deep fi.

[damianslaw]

Model watching these past few days has made for rather exhaustive viewing, with lots of differences and change beyond the 96 hr timeframe especially with regard to ever so slow moving trough, that is taking an age to shift eastwards, it has been this feature that has resulted in so much change longer term.

As ever best to stick to the short term, and expect further changes in the medium range with little consensus.

Just my hunch, but I wouldn't be surprised to see the models caught out by the persistence of mid atlantic heights, and any displacement back to Europe most likely to be shortlived meaning an ever increasing likelihood of sustained colder than average conditions setting up as we move further through the winter - this week likely to be just as a taster..

 

[northwestsnow]

Just delaying the inevitable though surely.

If i was in southern midlands id be more excited by friday

[Ice Day]

-8 uppers still in the east of the country at 156.  I must admit, I was feeling a bit despondent earlier and really didn't see the 18z producing this.  Massive change (probably a cold outlier!!)

[Liam J]

By T156 the -8c isotherm is over N & E UK instead of Norway as per the 12z! Mild air nowhere near the UK... 

[WINTRY WALES]

Does anyone ever think the met does this to us on purpose?? To throw us amateurs off track since the power of web enhanced the amateur powers lol? Help them maintain their professional status? 

The models are tampered with I'm telling you!! It's all a conspiracy to send us over the edge

Edited January 10, 2016 by WINTRY WALES

[Mucka]

Cold UK high, we don't get those very often at all and it would make for some stunning frosts.

You can't make it up really, ECM and JMA move toward GFS at which point GFS begins to move the other way. Ahhhh models, bless em.

[karlos1983]

nice bit of WAA 

[bobbydog]

now would be a good time to cut that high off!!-

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

Cold UK high, we don't get those very often at all and it would make for some stunning frosts.

You can't make it up really, ECM and JMA move toward GFS at which point GFS begins to move the other way. Ahhhh models, bless em.

What catches my eye is the large omni present Siberian high. Given its continual presence I'd suggest we won't be getting much further towards Feb before more model drama unfolds. Waxing and waning of HLB should occur until any final warming disintegrates the winter PV. All good fun!