Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Timmytour]

4 hours ago, Greenland1080 said:

GFS coming into line with the UKM an ECM is my call...oh an Leicester to beat Spurs 3-1........an with NAO AO negative some mid term upgrades an eye candy......

To me this highlghts how things can go with the models.....they can forecast some of the factors right, like the number. of goals, yet the result can be so different!!!

Not looking so good as it was earlier, but out of the blue you never know.....the ref can give your team a late penalty

Edited January 10, 2016 by Timmytour
typos

[Mark Bayley]

FWIW by Friday morning the ECM has a covering of snow from Yorkshire Northwards. Nothing more than a scattered dusting further south. This is similar to the GFS. where high ground in the north is favoured for a possible snow event Thursday night. Its not worth going in depth at this stage, but one to look at more closely as we near Thursday (if snow potential remains)

[chionomaniac]

13 minutes ago, snow mad said:

This time a few days ago the anomaly charts were showing black holes which almost disappeared over night so I don't think I'll be staying up late waiting to see what happens. Just weather but it has been very disappointing to see this cold spell downgraded so much!

That is not my experience - the H500 anomalies sen for the Atlantic sector over the next few days are very similar to the ones predicted over a week ago and are verifying well. At that point we didn't know what was to come after but now we do. I thought the black hole runs were individual runs and not the whole ensemble so that comparison may be unfair ( I didn't ever post them so not sure 100% on that) 

 

Ultimately the H500 ensemble anomaly charts suggested an Atlantic block extending to Greenland that would give a cold spell and could have potentially led to a lot more than that. And that is what it looks like delivering!

Edited January 10, 2016 by chionomaniac

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The cold hasn't even arrived yet! We should wait until it's here, with snow falling until analysing the breakdown! The models are still clueless beyond 96 hours. 

Absolutely agree, the ukmo 12z is the best and the ecm 12z shows cold surface conditions until day 9..and when the Arctic air does dig south in the week ahead it could prove stubborn to shift...any return to mild is very FI and this could yet evolve into a better cold spell than some think.

[Mark Bayley]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

That is not my experience - the H500 anomalies sen for the Atlantic sector over the next few days are very similar to the ones predicted over a week ago and are verifying well. At that point we didn't know what was to come after but now we do. I thought the black hole runs were individual runs and not the whole ensemble so that comparison may be unfair ( I didn't ever post them so not sure 100% on that) 

Yes, it these charts I think snowmad is referring too, which are anomalies for individual runs. They've been posted a few times, especially when the ECM was going all out for a Greenland high!

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=101&map=0&type=0&archive=0

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

I think a lack of posts from a certain 2 members, really says it all...

 

Poor output from the 12z's after something a little more promising overnight. I would now have the chances of milder atlantic weather winning next weekend/monday after at 70% now. All hopes pinned firmly on the UKMO

 

Yeah some places may see a little snow, but from what looked an epic cold spell will just be a standard uk cold spell..

Yes its disappointing but theres two ways of looking at it. A standard UK cold spell given the winter so far could be described as epic! lol

The ECM is probably colder than it looks because of the different conditions likely over mainland Europe and the surface flow into the UK may well change even with the high flattening out.

There are a number of issues to be resolved over the eastern USA which will effect how that troughing behaves to the west.

We'll see how things go in the morning, so yes whilst I share some of your disappointment at least there is something akin to winter arriving.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Absolutely agree, the ukmo 12z is the best and the ecm 12z shows cold surface conditions until day 9..and when the Arctic air does dig south in the week ahead it could prove stubborn to shift...any return to mild is very FI and this could yet evolve into a better cold spell than some think.

Cool Frosty! keep it going, keeping spirits up! always enjoy your posts

[Team Jo]

Without wishing to sound like a stuck record, one line commentaries are best served in the banter/moans thread.

I don't realistically think anyone here can confidently call how this week will play out based on the scrambled information we have. So let's just let it unfold!

[Jason M]

17 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

The cold hasn't even arrived yet! We should wait until it's here, with snow falling until analysing the breakdown! The models are still clueless beyond 96 hours. 

Interestingly, it may be one of those scenarios where the longer term outlook is more certain the the middle term. Looking through the output it's easy to see how subtle changes can improve prospects for the cold spell from say day 4 out to day 7 or 8. You can see this in the ensemble suites, but most (there are exceptions!) thereafter revert to higher pressure to our south in the longer term.

in any case nothing is certain and for all anyone knows we could be looking at a roaring easterly in a few days. Personally I think we will struggle to sustain any northern blocking this season just as we did for the last two winters. Without that northern blocking deep cold is very difficult to achieve.  I'd love to be proved wrong though  and the great thing is that a shiny new set of model runs is never more than a few hours away!

Edited January 10, 2016 by Jason M

[Frosty.]

2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Cool Frosty! keep it going, keeping spirits up! always enjoy your posts

Cheers I will do my Best

[Harsh Climate]

And even though the UKMO is the best this afternoon it does look as if the blocking high is about to collapse

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening! Why or Why or Why do folk get hung up on this cold spell ending ,even before it starts  We know the cold is coming in!  The detail is very much uncertain. Thursday looks a good day for snow right across the nation, lots of  details to get nearer the timeframe. Enjoy the upcoming cold spell, its better than we had last year!!!

[The Enforcer]

49 minutes ago, Winter Cold said:

Well GFS 12z takes another leap upto the mild end of the ensembles from the 17th, just about the mildest one. Its been doing this for many runs now. The control follows it aswell..so pretty consistent.

GFS seems determined to show the mildest possible outcome even in the short term. The operational is a mild outlier on 11th, 12th, 14th and is above the mean on 13th and 16th. Only on 15th and 17th does it represent an average outcome (for that model suite).

Edited January 10, 2016 by The Enforcer

[nick sussex]

The reason I think we need to just wait another few runs is to see how the pattern unfolds in the eastern USA, these comments from NCEP in their latest State update for Connecticut

FRI INTO SAT...
MAINLY DRY SEASONABLE WX CONTINUES UNDER HIGH PRES MOVING IN FROM
THE S. LOW PROBABILITY OF ANOTHER SYSTEM BY SUN/MON TIME
FRAME...BUT ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
STRUGGLE WITH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL PHASING OF STREAMS.

There seems to be an array of solutions for how that occurs as you can see when looking at each outputs view of that region.

 

 

 

[dragonfalls]

Hi is there any other model up dates today and what time thanks 

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

Without wishing to sound like a stuck record, one line commentaries are best served in the banter/moans thread.

I don't realistically think anyone here can confidently call how this week will play out based on the scrambled information we have. So let's just let it unfold!

Looking at the members You ain't far wrong there!

[karlos1983]

3 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

GFS seems determined to show the mildest possible outcome even in the short term. The operational is a mild outlier on 11th, 12th, 14th and is above the mean on 13th and 16th. Only on 15th and 17th does it represent an average outcome (for that model suite).

Interestingly the operational starts its separation from the pack, right around the time it's shown to phase the Azores low. So perhaps a good sign.

[Harsh Climate]

Jma 192

cma 192

The less said the better..

[Bristawl Si]

5 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Jma 192

cma 192

The less said the better..

Ties in with weekly forecast at end of countryfile this eve.

[bluearmy]

Check out the mean jet ECM from 00z T192 and  12zT180

says all you need to know about the current direction of travel re the northern arm

 

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

2 minutes ago, dragonfalls said:

Hi is there any other model up dates today and what time thanks 

The gfs 18z run begins at 9.30pm if that helps.

[Kieran]

Most if not all models now showing a breakdown of this cold pattern so not much hope from me. Even todays UKMO shows the cold will hang on an extra day or 2 before the warmer air returns. Thursday seems the best day of the bunch with snow chances for most areas. Such depressing charts compared to the ones we were seeing 4/5 days ago  

[dragonfalls]

Thanks will take a look or hide behind the chair 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, Harsh Climate said:

Jma 192

cma 192

The less said the better..

Lol! We only refer to those if they're showing cold synoptics!

For that reason better to look at the NAVGEM, its an in between combo that phases the Azores low and manages to keep enough of a continental flow into most of the UK to keep things cold out to T180hrs.

 

[marksiwnc]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

Ties in with weekly forecast at end of countryfile this eve.

Seriously???  It said high pressure looks set for the weekend to bring drier conditions.  Anyhow it will change again I'm sure