Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

[Continental Climate]

Not liking this so far very progressive. Westerlies incoming I think!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Continental Climate said:

Not liking this so far very progressive. Westerlies incoming I think!!

Yes GFS very progressive with that horrid candadian lobe killing any hope of a ukmo style evolutin.

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

UKMO was never right

Why do you say this?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Why do you say this?

I guess we will have a better idea very soon, but GFS is actually more progressive than the 6z run!!

[MR EXTREMES]

5 minutes ago, Continental Climate said:

Not liking this so far very progressive. Westerlies incoming I think!!

all pushed east very quickly blasted seuro azorez again.

I did say a few days back I felt there be a cold snap but so much chopping and changing but then again be interesting to see if jma gem ukmo and ecm all acktrack towards the gfs or that gfs is completely wrong.

Edited January 10, 2016 by emotional rollercoaster

[Harsh Climate]

UKMO 96 still looks good to me

[Banbury]

UK at 96

[Harsh Climate]

Why can't we just get a good GFS operational run to sit back and enjoy, Instead we keep getting one of the more mild/progressive essemble members (if ya can call it that). So I guess it's another nervy wait for it's essembles to see if it has any credence..

[Banbury]

Wet or White ................far too early to say IMO.....................if verified of course

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Wet or White ................far too early to say IMO.....................if verified of course

A mix of rain, sleet and snow it seems.

[doctor32]

gfs @120   compared to ukmo @120hrs 

ukmo still better, everything further west still?

Looks like its another case of gfs vs euro's again tonight!

Edited January 10, 2016 by doctor32

[ukpaul]

May I suggest watching UKMO coming out rather than GFS, it's much less stressful and you can get a drink while waiting for the next frame.....

Northern Hemisphere view looking very good.

Edited January 10, 2016 by ukpaul

[Captain Shortwave]

Day 5

GFS

Heh, this run is pushing the cold air out even quicker.

UKMO

Pretty similar to this morning. A clean north to north west flow with a strong Atlantic ridge.

The story is dragging on longer than an American drama series which never ends.

Edit- GEM backs.....

The UKMO

Well to a degree, the model has a weaker trough over Scandinavia which swings the winds to the east pretty quickly.

Edited January 10, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[weather eater]

 

And the Mexican standoff continues

[Continental Climate]

Not a bad 120 really I would take that!! Pressure still apparent over North Atlantic and stretching into greenie!! How is it so different to the GFS at this stage?

 

easterly incoming on the 144 then the high either topples onto the UK giving us frosty days or it retrogresses to Scandi giving us nirvana, take your pick!!!

Edited January 10, 2016 by Continental Climate

[MR EXTREMES]

7 minutes ago, doctor32 said:

gfs @120   compared to ukmo @120hrs 

ukmo still better, everything further west still?

notice the big purple lobe to the north of uk its not there on the ukmo.

the center of the low is the same on them both but ukmo has a second kink and the ukmo has higher heights into Greenland which model will win the winter fa cup

id also be interested to see if scandi heights will build from ukmo model further on with possibility of a northeast flow futher beyond 144hrs.

gfs looks like a complete mess I really starting to think its wrong.

but where have to wait and see

Edited January 10, 2016 by emotional rollercoaster

[doctor32]

  much better going forward from this ukmo @144

 

hope ecm agrees later... and enough of the gfs for another run now lol

[Eskimo]

I can't fully remember now, but didn't 2010 have many of the models disagreeing with each other and then finally agreeing at the last moment to just keep extending the cold. The hemispherical synoptics are very similar, so perhaps will pan out a similar way?

[Ice Day]

Well well well. No one has blinked yet!

UKMO at 144  

 

GFS at 144 

 

 I think the ECM is going to have to step in and sort this out!

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, doctor32 said:

  much better going forward from this ukmo @144

 

hope ecm agrees later... and enough of the gfs for another run now lol

Yes, another good run from UKMO , quite incredible how at 6 days out we have such a difference between GFS and our own..........let's be clear here we are well into FI

[Ali1977]

Another good UKMO, both models sticking to there guns...Which one is Glosea closest too I wonder....  

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144 is, i suspect, showing the block sinking back towrds the UK.

Prior to that im not entirely sure if its better than gfs for thur without 850's etc.

In any case its a damn sight better than GFS!!!

Edited January 10, 2016 by northwestsnow

[Daniel*]

Quite a difference between the 6z/12z on the fabled channel low as IDO highlights. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Does anyone get the feeling that the GFS model could end up being correct? pessimistic I know but I just don't understand how it can be so different compared to other models. Either that or it's completely off the mark.

[Continental Climate]

A horrendous 180 from the GFS and basically puts us back into the sauna!! Someone is going to have copious amounts of egg on their faces, Lol!! Hope its not the UKMO!!