Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[shotski]

18 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

If the models persist in a downgrade then one does have to praise the Met Office who have consistently suggested that the Altantic will win out.

Do the met office actually pay much attention to the operational runs and ensembles  that us Jo public can see, I would think it probably accounts for maybe 20% of their thought process. I'm sure their "decider" in house models are way ahead of anything we can view on Meteociel or Wetterzentral  and rightly so. Model watching is great fun but unfortunately we are eating at the road side cafe and the met office are dinning at the Ritz . 

Shotski

 

[summer blizzard]

17 minutes ago, shotski said:

Do the met office actually pay much attention to the operational runs and ensembles  that us Jo public can see, I would think it probably accounts for maybe 20% of their thought process. I'm sure their "decider" in house models are way ahead of anything we can view on Meteociel or Wetterzentral  and rightly so. Model watching is great fun but unfortunately we are eating at the road side cafe and the met office are dinning at the Ritz . 

Shotski

 

The Euro ensemble mean gets a lot of weight from them (and clustering from said ensembles) but yeah, as operational runs go they'll have better stuff.

[cobbett]

2 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

If the models persist in a downgrade then one does have to praise the Met Office who have consistently suggested that the Altantic will win out.

If you mean the long range forecasts have to disagree - they consistently mention an Atlantic dominated theme on every update since year dot . Nothing too skilful there 

 

Edited January 8, 2016 by cobbett

[shotski]

2 minutes ago, cobbett said:

If you mean the long range forecasts have to disagree - they consistently mention an Atlantic dominated theme. Nothing too skilful there 

In that case they've been spot on then :-)

[summer blizzard]

1 hour ago, cobbett said:

If you mean the long range forecasts have to disagree - they consistently mention an Atlantic dominated theme on every update since year dot . Nothing too skilful there 

 

To be fair, the prevailing wind is from the Atlantic.

[chemikal]

Keeping to the thread title.

Snow where: Southern & Central Scotland. 

Snow when: This afternoon & evening

How much: Dusting here in Glasgow (see photo) to 5cm + elsewhere 

The morning BBC forecast wasn't even predicting this for the Glasgow area as the band of rain for us was meant fizzle out by early afternoon. It was even snowing at sea level down in Ayrshire! My point is that if a forecast for literally hours ahead can go quite wrong then so can the models +24 onwards.

Just because you see it on a TV or computer screen doesn't make it set in stone.

 

 

 

[snefnug]

Very happy model thread, very quiet Banty ranty thread.....

[Daniel*]

 

 

Edited January 9, 2016 by Earnest Easterly*

[LeeSnowFan]

So after last nights charts the chance of snow is ever increasing for our region! lets hope it stays like that

 

I think that we will have a surprise in the last 24/48 hours with the charts! they certainly are playing with us

[Snowday]

Not quite sure it'll hit us, LeeSnowFan. Just looking at where the precipitation is falling when it's cold enough and it's seems to be either on the other side of the hill or more south. :-(

[LeeSnowFan]

42 minutes ago, Snowday said:

Not quite sure it'll hit us, LeeSnowFan. Just looking at where the precipitation is falling when it's cold enough and it's seems to be either on the other side of the hill or more south. :-(

last week it was all over was a non event couple days later models flipped and it brought it back for most if not all, I still believe it will change in the last 24/48 hours!

[Summer Sun]

Wintry showers for all parts on the beebs week ahead forecast

In the 6 to 10 day period it may turn milder and wetter again

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35273814

[Spurry]

Tomas Schafenaker has tweeted that it it's not going to be that cold and then it will turn milder at the end of the week...

[Summer Sun]

The tweet Spurry was talking about

 

 

[cyclonic happiness]

7 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The tweet Spurry was talking about

 

 

Question mark at the end though ??????    

[Snowday]

1 hour ago, LeeSnowFan said:

last week it was all over was a non event couple days later models flipped and it brought it back for most if not all, I still believe it will change in the last 24/48 hours!

I'd love it if it did!! 

[Dancerwithwings]

8 hours ago, LeeSnowFan said:

last week it was all over was a non event couple days later models flipped and it brought it back for most if not all, I still believe it will change in the last 24/48 hours!

Interesting you saying that, looking back on new years day there wasn't a sniff of this so called cold spell that the GFS is now showing.

So who's to say that the GFS won't flip again towards cold in 7-10 days time as this week unfolds, for us Coldies ...Let's hope so 

 

Edited January 10, 2016 by Dancerwithwings

[Summer Sun]

Up-to Friday temps in the south stay between 5c and 9c by day and 3c to 5c in the north Wednesday night into Thursday sees the chance for some snow even in the south though away from high ground most areas could just see cold rain Wednesday morning looks bitterly cold especially in rural areas

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35276469

[Day 10]

Really underwhelming forecast just then on countryfile.

[pegg24]

22 minutes ago, Minus 10 said:

Really underwhelming forecast just then on countryfile.

I thought the same to be honest. An average winter week with chance of snow and few cold nights. It is January it's suppose to be cold with a few frosts.

Edited January 10, 2016 by pegg24

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Up-to Friday temps in the south stay between 5c and 9c by day and 3c to 5c in the north Wednesday night into Thursday sees the chance for some snow even in the south though away from high ground most areas could just see cold rain Wednesday morning looks bitterly cold especially in rural areas

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35276469

 

Yes to me, that's just average for mid January, wet at times maybe slight frost, for my location I mean

[PLANET THANET]

4 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

I thought the same to be honest. An average winter week with chance of snow and few cold nights. It is January it's suppose to be cold with a few frosts.

dont you think though that she wasnt sure which way it would go midweek onwards and that they are just as confused as the models are 

[mountain shadow]

Ha ha, after all the hype of those amazing charts when this thread was set up, what another massive let down.

In answer to the op, there will be a little bit of snow on high ground on Wednesday through Thursday and there won't be much.

 

[pegg24]

Just now, PLANET THANET said:

dont you think though that she wasnt sure which way it would go midweek onwards and that they are just as confused as the models are 

I am Probably being negative just thought we was really going to get something good this time. And would be a long cold spell could still happen I suppose least if I expect the worst can only get better 

[PLANET THANET]

13 minutes ago, pegg24 said:

I thought the same to be honest. An average winter week with chance of snow and few cold nights. It is January it's suppose to be cold with a few frosts.

perhaps I am being to optimistic here but the way she spoke I felt that there was a hidden hint that without raising hopes that there could be another cold spell lurking later on and the fact that they didnt know the outcome midweek of the front approaching and also the  outcome of next weekend keeps me forever hopeful