Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[fergieweather]

1 hour ago, The Wolf said:

 

I see, for my area, in South Staffs, just outside Wolverhampton, there seems to be no chance of snow tonight. Is there any chance there could be a surprise and I may see snow or is there no chance? I have also heard I could be in a sweet spot for a Cheshire gap streamer on Thursday night and Friday. Is this correct and would this likely be all snow rather than sleet?

By Fri into weekend only snow. WBFL will have dropped pretty much to the deck.

[johnholmes]

try the Net Wx guide to this snow or rain.

Fun doing it, helps your understanding of the complex processes at work, you might turn out lucky. Remember the model has to show PPN before doing all the clever bits and add on your height. ROUGHLY 1C per 300m or 1000ft, note I said ROUGHLY, and my item has no, I think as so long since I looked at it, allowance for cooling of the PPN, Evaporative cooling that can occur in mod+ rain with little wind.

enjoy

 

[The PIT]

Huge hole in the centre of this system. So rain to start dry then rain to finish brilliant.  Fill the hole in make the rain heavy to cool the atmosphere and then bingo

[The PIT]

42 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

try the Net Wx guide to this snow or rain.

Fun doing it, helps your understanding of the complex processes at work, you might turn out lucky. Remember the model has to show PPN before doing all the clever bits and add on your height. ROUGHLY 1C per 300m or 1000ft, note I said ROUGHLY, and my item has no, I think as so long since I looked at it, allowance for cooling of the PPN, Evaporative cooling that can occur in mod+ rain with little wind.

enjoy

 

Yup works like a charm beaten the met office on numerous occasions using this guide.

[Purga]

Met Office ‏@metoffice 2h2 hours ago

Don't be surprised if you wake up to a dusting of #snow tomorrow! Warnings issued for northern areas pic.twitter.com/6yz6qFlx9H

nice heads up from meto tweet

[Purga]

Getting better - a Ramp from Alex Deakin

[Weather Observer]

 I am a newcomer to this forum. With all this talk of snow, would someone be able to tell me when I should be able to make my first " I didn't  expect that " post please?

Oh, and in case it is helpful, I have included my location

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Weathervane said:

 I am a newcomer to this forum. With all this talk of snow, would someone be able to tell me when I should be able to make my first " I didn't  expect that " post please?

Oh, and in case it is helpful, I have included my location

Depending on which model output is closest to what actually happens, it could be very soon, or it might not happen.  What does seem likely is for it to stay cold (at times very cold) for the next week or so.  Being Norfolk types, we have a good chance is some showers blow-in off the North Sea, which is very difficult to predict.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Huge IF but if I get any snow, thurs night, upto Sat am, the only chance for W midlands, certainly won't thaw quick! GFS 12Z as expected has backtracked, snowless week for many next week

[Kieran]

Could anyone give me their opinion on if Birmingham could see any sleet or snow overnight and into tomorrow? Or will it remain all rain? 

 

Thanks in advance

[The PIT]

Tomorrow afternoon maybe a chance for us all depends if the precipitation arrives as forecast.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, Kieran said:

Could anyone give me their opinion on if Birmingham could see any sleet or snow overnight and into tomorrow? Or will it remain all rain? 

 

Thanks in advance

165m not too bad but not great, sleet/wet snow best guess, Thurs 8pm to Sat 8am, our best chances, and with GFS upgrading cold, it will be there a long time, all ice days next week

[Kieran]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

165m not too bad but not great, sleet/wet snow best guess, Thurs 8pm to Sat 8am, our best chances, and with GFS upgrading cold, it will be there a long time, all ice days next week

Thank you. I'm sure we will both see atleast something wintry in the next 48 hours even if it is a sleety mix. 

[ptow]

27 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

165m not too bad but not great, sleet/wet snow best guess, Thurs 8pm to Sat 8am, our best chances, and with GFS upgrading cold, it will be there a long time, all ice days next week

Looking at the charts I couldn't see any ice days next week. Have I missed something? 

[Summer Sun]

Looks bitter this weekend

 

 

[Spurry]

2 hours ago, Purga said:

Getting better - a Ramp from Alex Deakin

I know he said we're gonna have the coldest night time temperatures for a few years , sounds promising

[I remember Atlantic 252]

didnt think nights of Jan and Mar '13 were that cold? very snowy spells though, this reminds me more of Dec 2010, with minus 10 nights

[March Blizzard]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

didnt think nights of Jan and Mar '13 were that cold? very snowy spells though, this reminds me more of Dec 2010, with minus 10 nights

March 2013 had comparatively colder maxima than minima. Saying that, I think the minima averaged around -0.3C for the month. Cold, but not exceptionally so. 

Hard frosts with negative double digit minima was more typical of Jan and Dec 2010.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, March Blizzard said:

March 2013 had comparatively colder maxima than minima. Saying that, I think the minima averaged around -0.3C for the month. Cold, but not exceptionally so. 

Hard frosts with negative double digit minima was more typical of Jan and Dec 2010.

also very early Jan 2002, rip the 'new' Atlantic 252

[Liam J]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

didnt think nights of Jan and Mar '13 were that cold? very snowy spells though, this reminds me more of Dec 2010, with minus 10 nights

Temperatures were down into minus double figures at times in March 2013, the lowest was about minus 13 in Scotland, ice days also recorded! Epic for the time of year... Shame we couldn't have that set up now! 

[March Blizzard]

6 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Temperatures were down into minus double figures at times in March 2013, the lowest was about minus 13 in Scotland, ice days also recorded! Epic for the time of year... Shame we couldn't have that set up now! 

Yep. The 11th (my birthday) was bitterly cold, an Ice day and minus double digits overnight. Extremely cold night on the 31st, too. 

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, *Sub*Zero* said:

Temperatures were down into minus double figures at times in March 2013, the lowest was about minus 13 in Scotland, ice days also recorded! Epic for the time of year... Shame we couldn't have that set up now! 

March 2013 was pants down here. Cold? Yes. But.......

Bone dry.

Give me an early warm Spring in March any year.

[MidnightSnow]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

March 2013 was pants down here. Cold? Yes. But.......

Bone dry.

Give me an early warm Spring in March any year.

Agreed.

When was the last time it snowed down here? I'm not being funny, I actually have forgot. 

[SteveB]

9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

March 2013 was pants down here. Cold? Yes. But.......

Bone dry.

Give me an early warm Spring in March any year.

Totally agree with this, March 2013 was cold but bone dry, apart from the odd snowflake blowing in the wind. I also remember it being grey and dull most the time.

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Agreed.

When was the last time it snowed down here? I'm not being funny, I actually have forgot. 

REAL snowfall? December 2010?

'Pretend' snow - dunno. I cant recall either.