Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[Summer Sun]

Very uncertain forecast for next week it will 'probably' turn milder but when?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35319682

[damianslaw]

15 hours ago, chris55 said:

Monday's snow chances have increased this morning with both GFS and ECM edging the Atlantic fronts into the cold air. Angle of approach and how far inland the ppn makes it will be crucial so details yet to be sorted. Though UKMO keeps us dry.

certainly one to watch.

 

 

I'm a great fan of the warm front bumping up against a cold block, these tend to be the best set ups for heavy snow in western Britain, but I'm a much greater fan when in the knowledge they will stall, or even better undercut. I'm not so happy in the knowledge that they mark the start of a mild period, the dreaded drip drip drip, nothing worse than when a good few inches quickly turns into a white slush fest and you see snow suddenly collapsing off surfaces..

Examples of the stall include early Feb 1996 - exceptional stuff.. example of the mild collapse include 27 Dec 2010 - a sad day marking the end of a 5 week very cold spell. Late Jan 2013 also another example of an 8 inch cover in the morning becoming a slush fest by the end of the day as the milder air invaded.

Perhaps the worst scenario is when a front fizzles in situ as it hits you, even if the cold air remains in place.. always a kick in the teeth..

I'm not sure about early next week, there does appear to be a major surge of tropical air entering the mid atlantic, it will be down to angle of attack, the warm air will inject a lot of moisture into the air, so any front should have some oomph to it, if it elongates on a NW-SE trajectory, some SW parts of the country could see some decent snow, more so Wales I suspect. It might be a case of the first atlantic assault not doing the business, and staying a bit too far SW, but the next making much more inroads, but unfortunately long enough in time to allow milder uppers to invade ahead of it.. we shall see.

I still think this cold spell, is just a starter, the main course to come later this month and through Feb, with a long lasting dessert in early spring, followed by the chocolates in April...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

love the setup too Damian, 4th Feb '12, 18th Jan '13, 13th Jan '10, do need winds on S or SSE angle mind you

[matt_in_dudley]

Moderate snow in Dudley, West Midlands. Wasn't expecting it! lol

[cheeky_monkey]

still waiting for it to get cold...got down to +2c last night..may get my first air frost of the season if lucky over the next 2 nights days will be +5 or +6c before it warms up again

[Audaxian]

Well, had just the third windscreen frost of the winter last night. Disappointingly thin, though, and absolutely no sign of anything even remotely wintry falling from the sky.

Might have to just be satisfied with the hail we had on Sunday. At least something icy and white was on the ground for a bit. Netweather's forecast for Uckfield on Monday has been infuriatingly on-and-off all week. Check in the morning, they're listing possibility of sleet/snow. Check again after lunch, it's saying clear day no chance at all, check again in the evening it's back on again, etc etc.

Pretty sure we'll get nothing at this point. Which may be a good thing ... as an Aussie I always get excited by the prospect of snow, I love the stuff as I only very rarely got to see it as a kid (having said that, my highlight was the year that we had snow falling on Christmas day in Canberra; the normal expectation is bright and sunny >30°C BBQ weather). But this year ... my wife's due to pop out our first child on the 31st, and a proper snow event could cause complications.

[mountain shadow]

Got about 2cm overnight with a hard frost.

[MP-R]

14 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

love the setup too Damian, 4th Feb '12, 18th Jan '13, 13th Jan '10, do need winds on S or SSE angle mind you

I was surprised at the extent of snow on 4th Feb 2012 considering SLP was between 1035-1040mb. I'm sure you wouldn't get much rain for such high pressure. 

It was also amazing how many places had all the correct parameters yet still got rain lol. I just hope this isn't one of those!

[Snow-Capped]

Latest update from METO highlights the uncertainty but extends the cold until next weekend.

UK Outlook for Wednesday 20 Jan 2016 to Friday 29 Jan 2016:

There is much uncertainty about the weather during the first couple of days, but we are currently expecting various fronts to make slow progress eastwards across the UK, bringing rain, sleet and possibly also some significant snow in places. The wettest conditions will be in the west and there is a fair chance that eastern areas will remain cold and dry until the weekend. Then from the weekend onwards the most likely scenario is for milder and unsettled conditions with showers or longer spells of rain to spread across all areas, with the heaviest rain likely to occur in the west and southwest. Although it should be generally mild there could be brief colder spells between the bands of rain.

 

UK Outlook for Friday 29 Jan 2016 to Friday 12 Feb 2016:

As we move from January into February northern areas are likely to see an unsettled period, with outbreaks of rain, strong winds, and some hill snow mixed with brighter, drier periods. Southern parts in contrast should see drier and more settled conditions, although rain cannot be ruled out. Overall temperatures are expected to be around normal, but possibly slightly below average in the south and east.

Updated at: 0123 on Fri 15 Jan 2016

[Geordiesnow]

On 14/01/2016 at 11:15 AM, Earnest Easterly* said:

 

Winter has arrived at long last. 

Well its bye bye to that graphic and the potential for a properly severe frost for most areas with increasing cloud and potential for some snowfall for Western areas. I also like how so far, none of the forecasters have admitted that the forecast has totally changed to what they previously thought when they were promising a severe frost and crisp winters sunshine for Sunday, usually John Hammond will open up when forecasts change but so far he has'nt yet.

Don't mind this surprising snow risk as it could be the only chance for me too see some of the white stuff but if its going to end up being cold, grey and drizzly then I rather have the cold frosty weather instead. That said, it should not really feel raw as there is not really a forecast for much wind on Sunday at this stage. 

[Sperrin]

We did quite well yesterday/last night in Co. Tyrone. Met warning was for 10-15 cms above 150 metres (I'm at 170m) which didn't transpire anywhere across the country but we'll take what we can after the December dross!

 

[Spurry]

No doubt the weekend will be cooler ,but as for the so called 'Cold Spell' the whole thing has been extremely disappointing ,Rain again today , temps at 5c, can't believe the BBC are still talking about the bitter cold ,I was in Sweden over new year and daytime temps were about -3-4c and at night down to -10c that is cold ...I think we've become soft

Edited January 15, 2016 by Spurry

[Summer Sun]

 

 

[Bradowl]

Looks like we're not going to get the 9.55 long range forecast on BBC News channel tonight.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Bradowl said:

Looks like we're not going to get the 9.55 long range forecast on BBC News channel tonight.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35330201

[pegg24]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35330201

They have give it a good going trying to predict but think there will be more twists and turns yet .

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, pegg24 said:

They have give it a good going trying to predict but think there will be more twists and turns yet .

Yes, I'm not sure I'm going for 'disruptive snowfall for midweek' myself.

[Grimsby Snow Lover]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/35330201

Thanks for the link, I had to laugh when the frame froze just as the forecast was about to begin. It looks like an interesting week coming up. Some of us look like seeing some decent falls of snow....fingers crossed.

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, Grimsby Snow Lover said:

Thanks for the link, I had to laugh when the frame froze just as the forecast was about to begin. It looks like an interesting week coming up. Some of us look like seeing some decent falls of snow....fingers crossed.

Yes, now the met go with their UKMO output on their fax chart!!

[Summer Sun]

 

 

Some updates from Ian

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

11 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, I'm not sure I'm going for 'disruptive snowfall for midweek' myself.

I was thinking that myself if any does fall it will be very short lived if the temps they show are correct

[Summer Sun]

Following on from the above here's the maximum temps from GFS from the 00z and 06z runs for Tuesday and Wednesday....quite a difference

[Alexis]

3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

I was thinking that myself if any does fall it will be very short lived if the temps they show are correct

Waste of time when you're in BBC Weather vague blob territory though.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Does anyone else feel like this front is hours earlier that first thought because I woke up at 10am to heavy snow when it should have been around 3pm, I'm not complaining its only because their forecasts were not updated and still showing 'older' forecasts...

[Chris1986]

1 minute ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Does anyone else feel like this front is hours earlier that first thought because I woke up at 10am to heavy snow when it should have been around 3pm, I'm not complaining its only because their forecasts were not updated and still showing 'older' forecasts...

A touch early but not miles away