Current Cold Spell: snow where, snow when - how much?

[pegg24]

29 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

perhaps I am being to optimistic here but the way she spoke I felt that there was a hidden hint that without raising hopes that there could be another cold spell lurking later on and the fact that they didnt know the outcome midweek of the front approaching and also the  outcome of next weekend keeps me forever hopeful

There has been so much change hasn't there. last week the cold spell was going to start tomorrow end weekend. Now don't start till Thursday and last s till weekend.

But like you say who knows looking on the model discussion on here nobody has a clue what's going on. 

[Snowshine]

 The forecast here is for light rain, not something I ever look forward to.

[Bradowl]

BBC News Forecast just said staying cold for next 10 days. 

Hinted that there's a lot of uncertainty on details for amounts of Snow. 

I think we'll have to wait until nearer time but it does look as though we should see some Snow at some point during week.

[ChezWeather]

Feeling quietly confident that we will see some snow on Thursday/Friday around the North Midlands / South Yorkshire 

 

 

[syed2878]

W this cold sbell has created some interesting model watching I must say even yesterdays 12hrs has left a few questions 1side we have the gfs and on the other side we have ukmo and ecmf, I wander who will get this1 rite. Anyway folks enjoy the cold sbell-snap because if the mets update for 16-30days anything to go by then we may not get another cold sbell until February. this was the update yesterday.

UK Outlook for Monday 25 Jan 2016 to Monday 8 Feb 2016:

The United Kingdom is most likely to lie within a predominantly westerly flow of air between low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south. So the weather looks set to be rather changeable with rain and hill snow at times, especially in the northwest. However, there is a reasonable chance of some longer dry spells due to a greater likelihood of high pressure, especially in the south. Overall, temperatures are expected to range from near to above average.

Updated at: 1353 on Sun 10 Jan 2016. So going by this we may not see another cold sbell in the south until mid feb lets hope we all get to see some snow during this upcoming cold sbell-snap.

[syed2878]

6 hours ago, PLANET THANET said:

perhaps I am being to optimistic here but the way she spoke I felt that there was a hidden hint that without raising hopes that there could be another cold spell lurking later on and the fact that they didnt know the outcome midweek of the front approaching and also the  outcome of next weekend keeps me forever hopeful  Well I hope your rite because going by the mets 6-15day outlook I can't see another cold sbell here's what they think at met.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Friday 15 Jan 2016 to Sunday 24 Jan 2016:

Remaining cold until at least the start of next week, with a mix of sunshine and wintry showers. The showers falling as sleet or snow at times, especially towards the north. Snow may settle at times just about anywhere, though mainly on higher ground. Widespread frosts expected morning and night, with the added risk of icy patches following wintry showers. From the middle of next week onwards, it looks as if the cold weather may gradually give way to somewhat milder and wetter conditions from the west, though confidence is low at this stage. With a westerly flow of air likely to become established by next weekend, the wettest weather then becomes more likely towards the northwest of the United Kingdom.

 

[Nick L]

So we are looking pretty certain to get a cold week or so, a welcome change from the winter so far. However, snow potential is looking fairly low, although I'm sure the flood-hit areas will be mightily relieved to see a dry spell.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yes cold and dry from about friday in my area, before then I expect quite a wet week, very cold weekend coming up with temps maybe staying below 0, GFS 00Z though progressive again, milder before cold again

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes cold and dry from about friday in my area, before then I expect quite a wet week, very cold weekend coming up with temps maybe staying below 0, GFS 00Z though progressive again, milder before cold again

EC is showing a lovely Cheshire Gap streamer on Thursday, although probably won't quite be cold enough for settling snow during the daytime. 

[LeeSnowFan]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

EC is showing a lovely Cheshire Gap streamer on Thursday, although probably won't quite be cold enough for settling snow during the daytime. 

@Nick L what are your thoughts on snow for my area south yorkshire

[Nick L]

Just now, LeeSnowFan said:

@Nick L what are your thoughts on snow for my area south yorkshire

Like most of England and Wales you might get a few snow showers from time to time but I'd be surprised if you get anything significant this week.

[summer blizzard]

51 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Like most of England and Wales you might get a few snow showers from time to time but I'd be surprised if you get anything significant this week.

GFS has been giving my location an all snow event on Weds night/Thursday morning for a few days now.

[Nick L]

2 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

GFS has been giving my location an all snow event on Weds night/Thursday morning for a few days now.

With your elevation certainly possible, but lower ground that event is looking on the wrong side of marginal to me.

By contrast, EC has just a slushy covering over the highest ground.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Nick L

[summer blizzard]

Just now, Nick L said:

With your elevation certainly possible, but lower ground that event is looking on the wrong side of marginal to me.

Pretty much always is. The number of times i've been up the M1 and seen snowcover magically start just outside Wakefield is incredible (either the Pennines or height to thank).

[Nick L]

8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

Pretty much always is. The number of times i've been up the M1 and seen snowcover magically start just outside Wakefield is incredible (either the Pennines or height to thank).

Incidentally, the latest GFS diminishes that snow risk by the looks of things.

[Costa Del Fal]

Yep latest GFS is ditching Friday's snow now. Looks like a boring cold dry week ahead then but I am glad for the flood hit areas. Just don't like cold that has no reward for it really.

[Geordiesnow]

Latest GFS is just awful for snow risk in all honesty, too much in the way of mild sectors all over the place. The "cold" for this week is just looking more and more sorry for itself and it would seem frost will be the only thing white people will see but even then, it depends on how much cloud cover there will be and at least for this week, there could be quite a fair bit. 

Its drier though so thats good news but people want too see snow so whilst its nice too see some more typical winter weather, it may not be good enough for some. For me, if this occured in December I be more accepting but now we are nearing and about to pass the half way mark of winter, you do want too see more in the way of snow potential rather than cold and at times frosty weather. 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Geordiesnow

[Nick F]

00z/06z GFS op so different to EC/UKMO for early Sunday synoptic-wise, really can't have any confidence past t+120.

[Nick L]

42 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z/06z GFS op so different to EC/UKMO for early Sunday synoptic-wise, really can't have any confidence past t+120.

Indeed, this is some stand-off. Certainly a cold week to come, with a decent chance of this lasting through the weekend and into next week. Low single figures widely by day and some sharp frosts by night, cold in anyone's book!

[VillagePlank]

My rule of thumb, posted here:

 

 

[Hodgheg]

Well the cold spell doesn't look like amounting to anything big for most. At least this is very different from the past few months, and it appears that the potential is now much higher.

[Nick L]

Just now, John Hodgson said:

Well the cold spell doesn't look like amounting to anything big for most. At least this is very different from the past few months, and it appears that the potential is now much higher.

Yep, a few weeks ago we would have taken cold and frosty in a heartbeat.

[Summer Sun]

Cold weather alerts issued by the met office all regions in England are under a level 2 alert bar the south west which remains on level 1

Current alert level: Level 2 - Alert and Readiness

Issued at: 0950 on Mon 11 Jan 2016

There is a 80 % probability of severe cold weather with icy conditions and wintry showers between 0900 on Monday 11 Jan and 0900 on Sunday 17 Jan in parts of England. This weather could increase the health risks to vulnerable patients and disrupt the delivery of services. Please refer to the national Cold Weather Plan and your Trust's emergency plan for appropriate preventive action.

With a north to north-westerly flow developing on the 11th and 12th January Arctic air is forecast to spread to northern areas at first, and across the whole of England later. Coldest temperatures will be in the north where there is a high risk of snow showers, especially over hills, and overnight frosts. Cold weather will extend to the Southeast later in the period, but coastal and many southwestern parts will escape the coldest of the temperatures.

An update will be issued when the alert level changes in any region. Alerts are issued once a day by 0900 if required and are not subject to amendment in between standard issue times. Note that the details of the forecast weather are valid at the time of issue but may change over the period that an alert remains in force. These details will not be updated here unless the alert level also changes, the latest forecast details can be obtained at the following link: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/#?tab=map

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/cold-weather-alert/#?tab=coldWeatherAlert

[snefnug]

Gala Handel in Norway is where I look to see snow online.  Lovely, although currently minus 9.  I want my snow cake but not from the freezer.

http://www.galahandel.no/kamera4.html

Edited January 11, 2016 by snefnug

[Geordiesnow]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Model Discussion thread is laughable ATM.  One member who shall remain nameless but who has the logo of a football club as their avatar is insisting that the GFS has been reliable recently () and that the UKMO has been systematically-overplaying blocking heights (before they've had a chance to really establish in position).  Plenty of others predicting a return to a strong, ordered troposheric vortex within 7 days, and expecting the Atlantic to send the 970mb low it's showing straight through the block to return us to December.

Should just name me Chris, I've no shame in your mocking of my opinions. You can't deny the UKMO has overplayed the ridging into Greenland hence why its output of a nice clean Northerly it showed on some runs was completely and utterly wrong and it was wrong on the fact the ridging could of been more tilted more east based instead of west based. 

Now which model was first at predicting a west based NAO, which model was the only model out of the big 3 to maintain the trough that is over us right now which delayed the cold... If the Euro models and especially the UKMO was right, we should be in the colder air right now as the trough would be in the North Sea like the UKMO constantly(apart from 1 run) predicted before eventually moving back in line with the ECM and GFS! Now it looks like the GFS is going to be wrong with the complicated matter of the shortwave so hopefully better ridging and any Atlantic attempts will be slowed down or even resisted all together. We shall hopefully find out which model will be closer to the mark in the next few days. 

Mocking posts like yours is what will put people off from posting on the model thread, by all mean disagree with what I say but don't mock at the same time and then try and give hints away of who the person you are mocking.