Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Froze were the Days]

11 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

Might slightly be off topic for models specifically but Matt Hugo's latest tweet suggests 'a return to December weather is not expected' @MattHugo

I'd eat my right arm if that happened again in the same winter - what happened in December was unpresedented so Matt's not really going out on a limb with that tweet!

[phil nw.]

We have removed some recent posts for being off topic.A reminder this thread is model discussion/views only please.

Posts about currrent weather,Met office stuff and banter etc.are for other threads .

Thanks all.

[chicken soup]

24 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Weatherweb have amended their February forecast based on the CFS anomalies (or at least are on the verge of amending it).  They now suggest an ever-strengthening Jet with lower heights to the north and higher heights to the south, bringing a mean westerly flow - wet and windy conditions prevailing.

EDIT:  Forgot link - apologies.

 

 

Excellent news for coldies, because whatever the CFS says expect the opposite.

[wishingforsnow]

22 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I'd eat my right arm if that happened again in the same winter - what happened in December was unpresedented so Matt's not really going out on a limb with that tweet!

I agree. I expect going by models, the next 2 weeks after the cold spell and indeed rest of the winter won't be chock full of rain, new named storms every week, and 16 degree temperatures day and night. The S/W winds will make it seem milder than as of late but that doesn't mean its going to be pouring it down heavily and blowing a gale constantly again.

Edited January 16, 2016 by wishingforsnow
Typo

[phil nw.]

More posts removed.If you want banter please go in here

 

Please respect our requests -it's only to make this thread enjoyable and informative for all.

Ta.

 

[Timmytour]

Three days away...and big differences already. To me that means you discard the last output and have as much faith in the current output as you had in the last one!!

12z T78 v 18z T72

Edited January 16, 2016 by Timmytour

[wishingforsnow]

5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Three days away...and big differences already. To me that means you discard the last output and have as much faith in the current output as you had in the last one!!

12z T78 v 18z T72

Yo yoing models even as we approach the start of next week. I don't think anything is certain to happen yet and the confusion has me thinking that there is something colder in store for the UK down the line and the models are all over the place in trying to pinpoint the trajectory of what this cold spell could grow into, regardless of either Atlantic incursion inbetween or no Atlantic.

Edited January 16, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Rocheydub]

9 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Three days away...and big differences already. To me that means you discard the last output and have as much faith in the current output as you had in the last one!!

12z T78 v 18z T72

Quite a difference in the Atlantic in particular, heights ridging north better. Pity they're not more robust!

[TSNWK]

10 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Three days away...and big differences already. To me that means you discard the last output and have as much faith in the current output as you had in the last one!!

12z T78 v 18z T72

You have a very keen eye.. I can't really see much difference... If anything I would say a fraction more progressiveprogressive

[booferking]

Lets see how the heights build towards Norway them seem to be building better on this run, lets look for the next cold outbreak.

[Timmytour]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Lets see how the heights build towards Norway them seem to be building better on this run, lets look for the next cold outbreak.

in the meantime this run is generating lots of energy that is only heading north-east it seems....while at the same time it doesn't seem to be implausible to hope that in future runs they will end up heading south east and giving us an altogether better run

[Captain Shortwave]

1 hour ago, phil nw. said:

Hi Ali,I added a bit more while you posted!

Not likely in the next 2 weeks as the heights are orientated from Europe.There are just hints at the end of the ens run of GP's Atlantic/Greenland +ve ht anomalies though

I didn.t want to highlight it yet as it is right at the end and i would wait for a 2/3 more runs before thinking it might be a trend to follow plus i don't want to jinx it!

More runs needed but it seems more than just a coincidence that the models are predicting that the strat vortex will displace towards Scandinavia with the anomalies picking up an Atlantic ridge. 

If this trends then this might be a much easier signal to hone in on if we get a connection through the layers of the atmosphere which would result in the formation of another deep Euro trough which would increase the chances of a cold spell for the UK if we could get enough amplification in the Atlantic to pull cold air from the north or north west.

Still a lot of uncertainty before this with a cold block and front trying t push in from the south west though consensus is appearing to push milder air through the UK by the end of the week.

Edited January 16, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[Ali1977]

Very different around Svaalbard this run with a block of sorts forming by day 8, this wasn't there at all on the 12z

[wishingforsnow]

8 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very different around Svaalbard this run with a block of sorts forming by day 8, this wasn't there at all on the 12z

Indeed. Needs watching.

[Purga]

Models seem to be in accord with a push through from the Atlantic by thursday

BUT - METO pro guidance doesn't believe it's a given and there is still great uncertainty as to the timing and extent of the block / mobility battle lines.

So it will be interesting to see what the mornings' 00z runs show.

[wishingforsnow]

11 minutes ago, Purga said:

 

Models seem to be in accord with a push through from the Atlantic by thursday

BUT - METO pro guidance doesn't believe it's a given and there is still great uncertainty as to the timing and extent of the block / mobility battle lines.

So it will be interesting to see what the mornings' 00z runs show.

I think the Met perhaps have more information which could be making them doubt the extent, timing and occurence of the block and how it will happen like will it completely do away with the block and cold air or stall and provide some more welcome snowfall? Also I have a feeling that as cold air is difficult to shift, the Atlantic is going to have a harder time completely breaking through this block as quickly as some models suggest. As of now nothing is a done deal. The fat lady isn't singing yet. 

 

 

Edited January 16, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[summer blizzard]

20 minutes ago, Purga said:

Models seem to be in accord with a push through from the Atlantic by thursday

BUT - METO pro guidance doesn't believe it's a given and there is still great uncertainty as to the timing and extent of the block / mobility battle lines.

So it will be interesting to see what the mornings' 00z runs show.

Viewing the models in recent days it has been interesting to see the continued capitulation of the models to a blockier pattern. We can be fairly certain that the Atlantic will win out (though i'm still shown -6C on Wednesday morning from the GFS) but it looks increasingly likely that most of England will be under the firm grip of persistent pressure builds from the south and east. In the long run, this could easily develop,

[Eskimo]

The lack of posts in this thread this evening says it all really. The excitement has faded and now no one really has anything to type about.

The GFS shows heights building across Scrussia which may give us an easterly...FI of course.


 

Edited January 16, 2016 by PerfectStorm

[Paul_1978]

5 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

The lack of posts in this thread this evening says it all really. The excitement has faded and now no one really has anything to type about.

The GFS shows heights building across Scrussia which may give us an easterly...FI of course.


 

OMG, first we have "Sceuro" and now we have "Scrussia" :-/

[i luv snow]

9 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

The lack of posts in this thread this evening says it all really. The excitement has faded and now no one really has anything to type about.
 

 Might be that a) it is Saturday night and b) many of us have snow falling, particularly across Scotland, NW and Midlands so are firmly in the regionals It has snowed since 2pm and still going in Manchester, mainly light but moderate to heavy at times, so 2 or 3cm.

Edited January 16, 2016 by i luv snow

[ukpaul]

14 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

The lack of posts in this thread this evening says it all really. The excitement has faded and now no one really has anything to type about.

The GFS shows heights building across Scrussia which may give us an easterly...FI of course.


 

No it doesn't and it's the second time you've tried to claim this today. 

For what it's worth models are now toying with Scandi heights and trough disruption increasingly taking place and allowing for such height rises. The building blocks are NOT in FI they are far earlier. Please look at posts by Tamara, GP, Steve Murr, John Holmes, Nick Sussex etc.

Look at both the way that blocks run up against heights over Europe and the way that those blocks react. It's not by chance.

Edited January 16, 2016 by ukpaul

[mickpips]

If the Met can't even predict this evenings snow with any certainty ( predicted a western pennine into the midlands snow event ) yet Yorkshire ( further East ) saw the frontal band move through and lay down several cm's of snow , how can any model output be taken at current output to be decided at +24 yet alone beyond ?

[Nick L]

5 minutes ago, mickpips said:

If the Met can't even predict this evenings snow with any certainty ( predicted a western pennine into the midlands snow event ) yet Yorkshire ( further East ) saw the frontal band move through and lay down several cm's of snow , how can any model output be taken at current output to be decided at +24 yet alone beyond ?

This is a bit of a flawed argument to be honest. You're (rightly) talking about differences if 10s of miles. But in terms of days ahead we're talking about broad scale, general patterns rather than local features like tonight. 

[bobbydog]

16 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

No it doesn't and it's the second time you've tried to claim this today. 

For what it's worth models are now toying with Scandi heights and trough disruption increasingly taking place and allowing for such height rises. The building blocks are NOT in FI they are far earlier. Please look at posts by Tamara, GP, Steve Murr, John Holmes, Nick Sussex etc.

Look at both the way that blocks run up against heights over Europe and the way that those blocks react. It's not by chance.

problem is, the 'building blocks' may well be there but, bob the builder is apparently on holiday...

[Singularity]

Given the likelihood of AAM not falling as much as the models keep thinking it will, it would be fitting for the blocking around Siberia to hang on as it does in the 18z GFS det. run rather that get blown away as per the 12z effort from that model. The push west, well that's just one possible effect. The main point to take is that the trop. vortex gets little room to breathe while the strat. vortex looks to be under considerable attack as well.

Strange as it is to look at a fairly consistent theme across the global models and have not that much faith in it, that does seem to be the most logical approach for the time being!