Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016

[Catacol]

1 minute ago, bryan629 said:

i was wondering now if GP`s `Torpedo` is trop led  or strat led.... because some modelling deep in FI are definately tinkering with height rises in our locale.. cfs as shown earlier as a mere example, for instance.

 

If GP is correct then the energy released from the peak on or around 6th should impact at around the 3 week mark... so around 10 days time. Therefore operational output may start to play around with various scenarios through the next 7 days as our current cold spell fades (not that it has been at all cold in the SW but that is a different story... :-( ) and we move towards predicted renewed height rises. It is a trop led variable. It's impact would be greatly enhanced in my opinion if we got s strat led impact too - which is possible even if a technical SSW doesnt occur.

Very interesting week of model watching coming up on top of a very interesting one last week. Some people have got their snow already. I'm waiting for a flake here yet - and IF's post of a few days away suggesting that MO charts were seeing atlantic heights and a scandy trough are extra spice in the mix. Still hopeful that all of the uk can see some snow action before the winter is out.

[Catacol]

Interesting. Block at 78h more robust. Atlantic struggling. 

[MKN]

2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Interesting. Block at 78h more robust. Atlantic struggling. 

Just needs some of the energy from the atlantic to head under it and we could be in with a shot of an eastly

Edited January 17, 2016 by SnowTornado

[shaky]

Just now, Catacol said:

Interesting. Block at 78h more robust. Atlantic struggling. 

Yes its being edged westwards in the last 3 gfs runs!!!could stay cold till the end of the week at this rate!!

[Eskimo]

Still cold on Thursday according to the GFS.

[Ali1977]

Cold week ahead , especially in the East but no real snow chances away from hills in the north. Time to reset the Atlantic and try again, something tells me this forums busiest time is yet to come this winter.

[tight isobar]

One begins to get the feeling of yet more uncertainties/surprises. .

The mobile regime will not breakthrough easily. .and probably less so than previously thought 

[Catacol]

9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yes its being edged westwards in the last 3 gfs runs!!!could stay cold till the end of the week at this rate!!

Hmmm - yes - CC was musing as to what may occur the longer this block resists. The clock is ticking before the next surge of amplification and if we maintain some blocking aspect into next weekend then fun and games may manage to return earlier than was looking the case 48 hours ago. The pot at the end of the rainbow would be some kind of scandy block holding on despite the push from the west, then linking with height rises mid atlantic. Difficult not to get a proper frigid continental feed from the NE/E/SE in that scenario, with energy undercutting from the west. GP's Feb analogue for the predicted GWO state suggested this as a definite possibility.

Very fine margins here. Increasingly interested in model consistency around the 240h mark now to see just whether we can get this to come our way prior to February's arrival. 

Edited January 17, 2016 by Catacol

[ukpaul]

9 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold week ahead , especially in the East but no real snow chances away from hills in the north. Time to reset the Atlantic and try again, something tells me this forums busiest time is yet to come this winter.

There is no such thing as a reset, the weather is not a computer and doesn't have a 'vanilla' state. To treat ot as such is to misunderstand the way the whole of our weather and climate works.

What you want to see in charts is blocking holding, pv being disrupted at some point and so on.A little less of that on the GFS 12z so far, hopefully not allowing the Atlantic to get in too far or for too long.

[IDO]

Yes looks like a nice dry working week in the SE which will be great, better than the Atlantic. Doesn't look much hope from this setup for the cold to retrogress too far west, but it remains stubborn to clear quickly.

Little change from the 06z with the cold uppers maybe 50-100 miles further west on the 12z by D5. Friday afternoon:

I am pretty sure its not the UK high that is stopping the Atlantic, more likely downstream, the ridge into Russia that stalls the Euro trough, UK ridge and therefore the Atlantic:

The Russian high gradually slides east allowing the rest to follow through. 

By T144 the GFS is closer to the 0z ECM with not so strong heights to the NE: 

 

Edited January 17, 2016 by IDO

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, ukpaul said:

There is no such thing as a reset, the weather is not a computer and doesn't have a 'vanilla' state. To treat ot as such is to misunderstand the way the whole of our weather and climate works.

What you want to see in charts is blocking holding, pv being disrupted at some point and so on.A little less of that on the GFS 12z so far, hopefully not allowing the Atlantic to get in too far or for too long.

I understand all that, the block isn't going to hold and is just hanging on, hanging on is just delaying chances of something else into early Feb...Atlantic breaking through might give us a better chance moving forward....

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

Atlantic delayed yet again on this run.

I am beginning to wonder whether it will ever get in at all because it has been shown as only winning the battle at around T96 - T120 for a few days now!

It is certainly looking like a cold week now, particularly the further North and East you are.

[mb018538]

Looks like a high pressure build from 144 onwards. Hopefully something nice will show up again fairly soon, as by the time this next week passes us by, we're only going to have 5 decent winter weeks to get stuck into before the longer days start eroding the cold pool away. A nice thought for my anyway, that spring doesn't seem too far off now!

[igloo]

going from a baby PV to a steady growing PV over the hudson bay by 168h is a sure sign of a very wet and windy spell of weather by next weekend lets hope the block sinks far enough south and we dont have another scenario of a huge euro slug again like december

to this

[tight isobar]

As IDO explains the peninsula (Russian) hp arm seem to retreat back further east helping modifications of shunting down the block...

BUT this is an area of interest in later times for possible next cold incursion and needs a close eye on through model evolution over next '2' days...progression of the arm westwards and even deeper into polar climbs. ..could open a whole new chapter for our part in winter! 

[IDO]

UKMO finally come into line at D6 and similar up till then with the GFS:

GEM is also moving closer to ECM, UKMO and GFS though still over doing the heights towards the NE but has dumped the Scandi high from the 0z:

Another run and it will be closer to the rest. Pretty good agreement going forward till D7 I would have thought, but what follows is now what we should be looking towards.

[IDO]

On this run GFS from D7 to D13 repeated attempts to build HP close to the UK, how far that ridges north will determine whether the north as well as the south has a settled outlook:

D8:  D10:  D13 

Whilst we have a holding pattern in the NH with no amplification up or down stream HP will be a better outcome than the Atlantic causing more chaos to the N and NW. 

[IDO]

WOW its been a long time since the GEFS at D5 have pretty much been identical, but the 12z has no real dissenters, so very high confidence in the coming five days: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=120

Mean at T108, showing when the negative uppers leave the UK: 

This is very close to op and control and all GEFS (as you would expect).

[bobbydog]

despite the variation in the output, one thing has been modelled very consistent lately- the destruction of the strat vortex-

torpedo hit....

[feb1991blizzard]

5 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

despite the variation in the output, one thing has been modelled very consistent lately- the destruction of the strat vortex-

torpedo hit....

The displacement on the 12z is nowhere near as potent as on the 6z tbh, I'm wondering if similar downgrades have been happening on GLOSEA5 and that's perhaps the reason for the change in wording of MO 30 dayer, the warming is waning at 1mb now at the end of the run as well before doing enough damage.

I always think that as long as the warming continues to strengthen at the top of the strat or at least not wane, then it will only be a matter of time before it severely weakens the vortex lower down.

Edited January 17, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[bobbydog]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The displacement on the 12z is nowhere near as potent as on the 6z tbh, I'm wondering if similar downgrades have been happening on GLOSEA5 and that's perhaps the reason for the change in wording of MO 30 dayer, the warming is waning at 1mb now at the end of the run as well before doing enough damage.

the 06z seems to have been showing stronger warmings than the 12z over a few runs but run the animation on meteociel and the strat takes an absolute battering. in fact, the chart i posted is the second attack. 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

11 minutes ago, IDO said:

WOW its been a long time since the GEFS at D5 have pretty much been identical, but the 12z has no real dissenters, so very high confidence in the coming five days: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=120

Mean at T108, showing when the negative uppers leave the UK: 

This is very close to op and control and all GEFS (as you would expect).

Although it looks like milder weather will be coming , surely you should know better than to look at anything past t100 hrs to forge such a confident forecast ? 

I believe that yes the Atlantic will come back , but for how long , all the signals pointing towards a blocked February , I certainly won't be getting carried away by the gfs Atlantic brigade . Every day the cold hangs on longer . It's meant to of been inside t100 5 days ago , now it's another 5 days or so ? So that's 200 hours there , but no model was showing that was it . 

Lets see what happens to our northeast over the next 3 days , I have a sneaky feeling we may be surprised .

Edited January 17, 2016 by Severe Siberian icy blast

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

the 06z seems to have been showing stronger warmings than the 12z over a few runs but run the animation on meteociel and the strat takes an absolute battering. in fact, the chart i posted is the second attack. 

True but the reds still get in there on the 6z, but the main point is that no run has yet in the last week had the warming waning at 1mb at the end until the 12z now.

Edited January 17, 2016 by feb1991blizzard

[wishingforsnow]

I think the minor change of the Met's 30 day today isn't to do directly with strat warming, more like they want to see if a block/ridge forming can bring settled, dry conditions to the North as well as the South as has been developing on the models lately. If that is the case then UK wide cold could come a lot sooner after this cold spell ends, and a faster destruction of the PV would only speed up this process to include the whole of the UK settled, dry and cool/cold instead of a North/South split which, mind you could also develop to a UK wide block further down the line. There are some good signs for February as people have already suggested.

Edited January 17, 2016 by wishingforsnow

[Pembroke Dangler]

9 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:

I think the minor change of the Met's 30 day today isn't to do directly with strat warming, more like they want to see if a block/ridge forming can bring settled, dry conditions to the North as well as the South as has been developing on the models lately. If that is the case then UK wide cold could come a lot sooner after this cold spell ends, and a faster destruction of the PV would only speed up this process to include the whole of the UK settled, dry and cool/cold instead of a North/South split which, mind you could also develop to a UK wide block further down the line. There are some good signs for February as people have already suggested.

Just need to hope the express don't publish something saying severe icy blast to cripple the uk in February with weeks of disruptive snow We might be in business then going by the latest signals from the strat etc.